The OECD cut its growth estimates for 2013 effective fromthe eurozone that year next will retreat by 0,1%instead of registering a modest growth of 0,9% already expected in May. Europe's fall is reflected in the rest of the planet: expectations for the entire area of OECD countries have also been revised downwards to +1,4% from +2,2%.
Italy in particular could be forced in 2014 to launch a new maneuver to restore its accounts. Public debt is estimated at 127% in 2012, 129,6% in 2013 and 131,4% in 2014.
OECD estimates have helped to interrupt the recovery of Asian stock markets after six days of increases. Tokyo loses just over a percentage point, Hong Kong is down by 0,85% on a par with Seoul.
The news from Europe depressed the US stock market, despite a set of positive data on the US economy. The Dow Jones index falls by 0,69%, S&P500 -0,52%. The Nasdaq fell 0,3%.
Alternate trend for the European lists: weak Paris – 0,03% and Madrid – 0,14%. Frankfurt and London closed up 0,55% and 0,22% respectively.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib lost 0,26%.
AMERICA
The dollar strengthens, the stock market slows down. At first glance, Wall Street's reaction to the barrage of positive macro data is surprising. Consumer confidence index (Conference Board) jumped in November to its highest since February 2008 to 73,7 from 73,1 in October, economists had expected a drop to 73,0. Durable goods orders in October, excluding the transport sector, they rose by 1,5%, largely beating economists' expectations.
Finally, house prices (S&P Shiller index) rose in September by 3% on September 2011, recording the largest increase since July 2010.
Why, from the source of these numbers, does prudence prevail? The prevailing explanation relates to new clouds over the agreement for the tax cliff. Senate Democrat spokesman Harry Reid said he was "disappointed" by the progress of talks between the parties. “We don't have more than two weeks left – he added – to move from a positive climate to concrete results”.
But the dollar's rise points to another concern: too robust a recovery could prompt the Fed to postpone the Quantitative Easing scheduled for mid-December.
EUROPA
“Yes, it is solid. But how solid is it?”. This question was asked by none other than the director general of the IMF Christine Lagarde during the conference dedicated to the agreement on the Greek debt. Anglo-Saxon newspapers, from the "Financial Times" to the New York Times compete in fueling skepticism about the future of Athens.
The rating agency Fitch judges the agreement for Greece positive but underlines the high risks linked to its implementation. "The agreement - he writes - mitigates the threat of an imminent default of sovereign bonds or an exit from the eurozone, but some central problems have yet to find an answer". Among these "how the recapitalization of Greek banks will be implemented and if the injection of capital will be sufficient to ensure the long-term stability of the banks".
In short, the Greek tragedy will require new acts. But the gory ending has been avoided for now.
There is not only the Ilva case. In Paris the government is mobilized against Lakshmi Mittal, the Indian tycoon who intends to proceed with the closure of the Fleurange plant The tycoon, summoned to the Elysée, was faced with a hard face by the minister Arnaud de Montembourg who accused him of "blackmail" for the intention to close, against the agreements already agreed, two ovens and thus leaving 629 workers at home. Faced with this choice, the Hollande government, will proceed to nationalize the plant.
"The sans culottes have regained power in Paris," commented the mayor of London, Boris Johnson, on a visit to New Dehli. “I have but one piece of advice to give you: Venez a Londres, month amis indiens!".
Tensions on the Athens front did not stop Spain from doing full in auction selling 4,09 billion bonds in three and six months, recording good demand and falling interest rates. On the three-month maturity, yields fell to 1,254%, while on the six-month maturity, rates fell to 1,669%.
ITALY
The Bund/Btp spread fell to 329 basis points in the afternoon after the successful reopening of the placement of a Zero Coupon Treasury Certificate (CTZ) maturing in September 2014. The Treasury placed 3,5 billion euros, exactly the target of the issue, at a yield of 1,92%: on the secondary market the same security traded this morning at 2,06%. This Ctz was issued in September with a yield of 2,65%.
The month-end Italian auction round continues today with the appointment on Bots (7,5 billion of six-monthly bills, out of the 8,5 due) and on Thursday with the medium-long term offer, with a total amount between 4 and 6 billion euro of BTPs on the two benchmark maturities of five years (November 2017) and ten years (November 2022).
At Piazza Affari at the end of the main price list Telecom -3,23%. The rumors of a possible deadlock in the board on open issues, i.e. spin-off of the network and sale of La7, weighed on the stock.
In this regard, the executive chairman of Telecom Italia Franco Bernabè said that la The company will make decisions in the board scheduled on December 6th, without, however, indicating in which matter.”We will take the decisions – he commented – there will be a broad debate, I think very conclusive. There is nothing stalled”. A discussion is expected at the next board of directors on: the spin-off of the network, the possibility of acquiring the Brazilian Gvt and the offer by Naguib Sawiris for a stake in the capital. The Egyptian entrepreneur has made known his conditions: no spin-off of the network and the price of the new shares close to the current quotation. That is, at half the price (1,5 euro) of Telco shareholders.
It shines instead stm +2,14% . Yesterday, the company announced that Nintendo has adopted a sensor-based solution from ST for the new Wii. The core of the new console is driven by an ASIC from ST, combined with a three-axis accelerometer from ST, which allows intuitive use of motion in electronic games.
They go up Finmeccanica +1,78 which, according to rumors, is probing the market for the launch of a bond and A2a +1,6% which has completed the sale of 25,7% of Metroweb.
In decline Azimuth -0,6% despite Equita raising the target price from 12 to 13 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. According to analysts, the progress in management/distribution, the increase in the dividend and the opportunity for bank restructurings deserve a prize.
Little move Eni +0,06% after that concluded the placement of approximately 33,2 million titles Galp Energy, equal to 4% of the company's capital, through an accelerated bookbuilding procedure with international institutional investors at the price of 11,48 euros per share.
Snam , allied with the transalpine energy giant EDF (which controls Edison in Italy) and Singapore sovereign wealth fund,participate in the tender for assets is Total prepares to sell, through its subsidiary TIGF, they envisage a gas transport network of 5 km and two storage plants, with the aim of obtaining around 2,8 billion-
Curious and unprecedented situation at home Sea. In fact, the supplement to the information prospectus drawn up in view of the listing notes that “according to what it learned after the publication of the prospectus, there is a situation of conflict between the controlling shareholder, the Municipality of Milan, and F2i'. This situation 'could give rise to a divergence in the position of the same on some decisions of an extraordinary nature subject to one of the qualified majorities' and consequently 'the failure to adopt such decisions by the competent corporate body, with possible negative effects on the prosecution of the company's objectives”: Completing the negative publicity is the brake on the dividend (“better than a BTP” was the opening slogan of the road show). Sea specifies that he "has not adopted any dividend policy" even though the 2012-2016 industrial plan envisages "a 50% dividend pay-out hypothesis".
