In 2014, Italy will experience a slight economic recovery, but unemployment will continue to worsen, together with the public finances, with the deficit by no means returning below the 3% threshold set by Europe. This is what emerges from the latest OECD report on the economy of our country, which denies the forecasts of the government in Rome and cuts the estimates released by the organization itself less than six months ago.
The OECD predicts that in 2013 the Italian GDP it will drop by 1,5% (estimates spoke of -1% in November only), while next year it should return positive by about half a point. Unemployment will rise to 11,4% this year, from 10,6% in 2012, and will rise above 11,8% in 2014.
Also according to the OECD, the Italian budget deficit will rise above the Maasticht threshold of 3% in the two-year period: 3,3% in 2013 and 3,8% in 2014. And the public debt will rise from 127% of GDP in 2012 to 131,5% in 2013 and to 134,2% in 2014.
The Organization believes that Italy has launched an ambitious reform program to restore the balance of its accounts and improve long-term growth: this "could help to get out of the recession as early as 2013" - reads the study -, but with a public debt-GDP close to 130% and a particularly heavy debt amortization plan, our country “remains exposed to sudden changes in the mood of the markets. The priority is therefore the large and sustained reduction of the public debt” and the results obtained thanks to the recent structural reforms “must be consolidated and further measures are needed to promote growth and improve competitiveness”.
On the other hand, the OECD seems to have a granite certainty: “It is currently impossible to significantly reduce the overall level of taxation".
