The global economy will continue to expand slowly in the rest of the year, despite signs of relative weakness in China and other emerging markets and a patchy recovery in Europe. Italy will be the only G7 country to end 2013 with a fall in gross domestic product, in the order of 1,8 percentage points, after the 2,4% drop recorded in 2012. This is stated by the Organization for cooperation and economic development.
The OECD forecasts hold no surprises and are in line with the official and private ones. The United States, Great Britain and Japan are growing "at an encouraging pace", while the Eurozone emerged from 6 consecutive quarters of contraction between April and June. Indicators from major advanced economies, including higher confidence and stronger industrial production, suggest the trend "will continue at the pace seen in the second quarter."
Germany, France and Italy – the three largest economies in the eurozone – will expand by 1,3% overall in the third quarter and by 1,4% thereafter. Slightly lower figures than those recorded in the second.
In detail, in Rome there will be a contraction of 1,8%, while Paris will grow slowly and Berlin will remain the leader of the European recovery.
According to the OECD, in the second half of the year the recession in Italy will tend to be less deep but there will be no signs of recovery. In the July-September period, in fact, GDP will undergo an annualized quarterly contraction of 0,4%, followed by a decline of 0,3% in the fourth.
Compared to May, the growth estimates for the whole of 2013 were instead revised upwards for France (+0,3% from -0,3%), Germany (+0,7% from +0,4%) and Great Britain (+1,5% from +0,8%).
Washington will grow by 2,5% in the third quarter - the same percentage as in the second - and by 2,7% in the fourth. Japan will register a +2,6% in the third quarter and a 2,4% in the following one.
The picture of emerging economies is less promising. China seems to have already reached the nadir of its economic cycle, but Beijing and other emerging markets are facing a climate of uncertainty. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 7,2% in the third quarter and by 8,1% in the fourth, up from 7% in the second. Rather sustained rhythms, but according to the New York Times, growth in those parts is essential to stem social tensions.
In some emerging countries, the slowdown in growth, together with the latest moves by the Federal Reserve, have led to "market instability, capital flight and currency depreciation". Above all - the OECD points out - it is India that has to face real dilemmas, with investors leaving and monetary pressure that could put a ballast on growth.
