Since the beginning of the pandemic, on November 23, the number of deaths in Italy has exceeded the threshold of 50. As it was written, almost double the civilian casualties during the Second World War. Yesterday 993 people died, never so many since the virus arrived in our country. At the same time as this last dramatic news, the Prime Minister intervened to announce yet another Dpcm.
A DISCOMFORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
Those who still believe in institutions would have expected a short and high-profile speech. Condolence for the victims, first of all, the desire to honor them by intervening in the most resolute way possible, the announcement of drastic, albeit probably unpopular, decisions. Something very different happened, with an accounting list of measures of compromise torn after the umpteenth tug of war with the Regions.
The first question from the journalists, after the long speech, concerned the story of the Prime Minister's escort, who intervened in defense of his partner besieged by a television crew. We could end here without further comments: the simple news story is enough to discourage the spirits of even the most optimistic, in the country and in his government.
AMBIGUOUS DECISIONS
The situation, however, is too dramatic to keep silent and it is appropriate to dwell on a few points. First of all, the decisions taken do not seem to be in line with the recommendations of the EU, which suggests extending school holidays and distance learning to create a buffer between the infections that could arise during the holiday period and the resumption of face-to-face teaching. The Dpcm, on the other hand, provides for the start of school on January 7 for 75% of students, without disclosing whether safety measures have been taken, starting with means of transport. Useless, one might say, to invoke Europe only when it's convenient.
The ban on movement between regions, set from December 21 to January 7, appears laughable. It even seems like an invitation to the great escape, as happened in the first phase of the pandemic: you all leave four days before Christmas and return in early January. Here's a way to affirm a principle and deny it at the same time.
Like keeping restaurants closed but not at Christmas, Boxing Day and New Years. Why? Was it agreed in those days that the virus will not circulate? This Dpcm probably sanctioned the prolongation of the pandemic, not a third wave, because, unfortunately, the second one never ended but nobody wants to say so.
According to the Prime Minister, Italy is moving towards a large yellow zone. Why is the pandemic under control or by decree? How to reconcile the growing number of dead with reassuring messages? And why aren't statistics provided on what happens to Covid patients? Intensive care units seem less crowded than last spring, but, one wonders, how many sick people are kept at home and hospitalized only when it's too late?
We sadly note that a cynical narrative has been created on such a dramatic situation, which conceals the inability to govern and the more or less conscious intention to deceive, blame and finally absolve whoever should assume the responsibilities. Two examples to clarify this aspect.
THE SCHOOL
A singular unanimity and an incredible stubbornness in wanting to keep it open has been created about the school, with justifications that appear rather disconcerting. There is talk of lost generations and of the fundamental importance of face-to-face teaching, tones have been used that even led to the belief that education is the country's first and absolute priority. Yet, for over twenty years, the Italian school has been ranked last among the OECD countries. It is in terms of investments, age and preparation of teachers, results achieved by students.
It is these conditions of a structural nature that have weakened Italy's competitive position also from an economic point of view and this will continue to happen, unfortunately, also in future years, since education does not find adequate space in any financial law. There are no plans or ideas for intervention.
So why suddenly, in September, without staggered timetables, without transport plans, without unanimously shared rules and in the middle of a curve of the pandemic that had started to grow again, eight million and more students? It certainly doesn't seem like the first and right move to relaunch education. And why reopen them on January 7? It is said that the school is safe, but no data is provided to support these claims, as unfortunately happens more and more often on many other topics.
And it is only from the chronicles of local newspapers that we read of schools that have been closed, of students, teachers and non-teaching staff who have tested positive for Covid. How many will there be in all? How many classes and schools have been closed since September? This information is unfortunately not known. And what about the thousands of parents who gather in front of the gates every day?
Like all large communities, school is a broth of culture of contagion, amplified by the objective difficulty of maintaining distance, by the formidable opportunity that the virus is offered to spread, through stories of contact, habits and attentions of different types families, in their places of work and play, that students innocently bring with them into class.
In short, the school has become a sacred and untouchable cow, thus also generating protest movements, pasdaran of teaching, deep down, premises for movements or at least negationist attitudes. Once the school has cleared customs, the green light has been implicitly given to behaviors that appear difficult to understand in the current context.
There was another possible way, recommended by some unheeded experts. That of implementing a real total lockdown, lasting a few weeks, which would have cooled the contagion, brought about by a summer marked by unruliness. The holiday season would still allow it. But it was decided differently.
After all, if one wanted to, there would always be a way to make up for a few weeks of closure: almost three months of vacation a year seem too much to many, even compared to what happens abroad. Economic operators and in particular commercial establishments would also have been less impacted.
THE ECONOMY
Meanwhile, the word refreshments has begun to circulate. In the Treccani Dictionary we read that it means compensation, compensation, or the action of restoring the forces of the body or those of the spirit, the fact of restoring oneself or being restored. Is this the most correct action when the forecasts for the fall in GDP are the worst in Europe and the economic scenario for 2021 looks bleak? No more was heard of the Colao Plan, which was quickly liquidated, nor of the General Assembly of the Economy held in June at Villa Pamphili.
We are still in the Italian conjugation, made up of compromises and inefficiencies, of the model HelicopterMoney, indispensable in a phase of sudden and acute crisis, but completely insufficient to relaunch the economy of a country that has accumulated many problems, even before the advent of Covid.
Meanwhile, China forecasts GDP growth this year of 4,9%, while the contraction in the USA could stop at -4,6%. For Germany, a loss of 5,2% and growth of 2021% in 5,1 are estimated. We recall the latest data available for Italy: -8,9% this year, +4% in 2021, but, at least for our country, we know that the forecasts are always more optimistic than what happens later. Meanwhile, we are heading towards a budget overrun of 15 -20 billion, but no one is talking anymore about long-term intervention programmes.
The Government is in fact at a standstill, waiting for the Recovery Fund, but the real economy is telling us different things: entrepreneurs fear a freeze in orders and turnover in the first quarter of the new year, while banks appear increasingly concerned about the expected growth in insolvencies. Once again, unfortunately, a serious gap between the political narrative and reality.
Meanwhile, social gaps and positions widen. Those who are in smart working and those who are exposed to the risks of contagion on a daily basis, those who work in hospitality and catering services who feel abandoned and harbor corporate anger. Four hundred thousand more unemployed since the beginning of 2020.
These terrible threats will have to be dealt with in 2021, after a new, almost evanescent Dpcm.
