THEISPI, Institute for International Political Studies recently released one studio in which, among others, the theme of the change in Italian commercial relations with the countries affected by the Arab Spring is also addressed. In 2010, EU exports to North Africa represented 4,6% of the total to non-EU countries, a percentage which had already dropped to 3,8% in 2011, with a reduction in the export of goods by around 20%. . Italian flows to the area had grown a lot since the mid-2000s, with a surge between 2008 and 13, reaching a maximum value of around 2010 billion euros in XNUMX. In 2011, Italian exports continued to grow towards Algeria and Morocco, while they drastically decreased in the other countries affected by the Arab Spring, as in the case of Libya. Data for 2012 up to September show a clear recovery towards all countries, with the exception of Morocco. In the EU scenario, Italy is the second exporting country to North Africa after France, with a market share of 8,2%, against 10,4% in 1995. The new competitors on the North African markets are represented by China (from a share of 1,9% in 1995 to 8,1% in 2011), followed by Turkey (from 2,1 to 3,4%), Saudi Arabia (from 1,8 .3,4 to 2,3%), Russia (from 3,1 to 1,5%) and Brazil (from 3 to XNUMX%).
The first destination market for Italian exports in the region is Tunisia, which has represented on average 28% of exports to North Africa in the last ten years, followed by Egypt (22%), Algeria (21%), Libya (20%) and Morocco (11%). The Arab Spring, manifesting itself in a way heterogeneous among the countries considered, significantly changed their geographical composition: the relative weight of Tunisia and Algeria increased to 28%, that of Egypt to 24% and that of Morocco to 13%, while Libya now represents only 5%. Furthermore, as regards the product composition, the most relevant category is that of petroleum and derivatives (16% of total exports), followed by specialized machinery (10%).
From the point of view of individual countries, the Libya is the commercial partner that most differs from the others in terms of the product composition of Italian products. In particular, petroleum and derivatives assume a preponderant weight, equal to 38% of the total, followed by industrial and electrical machines (7,5% and 6,8% respectively). The same goes for theAlgeria, where more than 50% of the total is made up of iron and steel (20%), specialized machines (15%) and industrial (13%). In Morocco and Tunisia exports of textile products are of particular importance (respectively, 15% and 19% of the total). Furthermore, almost all of the textile fibers and half of the gas exported to North Africa are destined for Tunisia, followed by Egypt (36%) and Morocco (20%).
While a common reduction in exports to all trading partners in the region (12%) was observed during the global economic crisis, the drop in exports of almost 20 percentage points following the outbreak and spread of the Arab Spring in 2011 hides profoundly different dynamics from country to country. The most substantial reduction (-77%) was in fact achieved in exports to Libya. Significant, but certainly more limited, was the drop in exports to Egypt (-12%) and Tunisia (-11%). With regard to Morocco and Algeria, on the other hand, the flows during 2011 increased by 3% and 5% respectively, with a likely displaced effect from countries directly affected by the protests given the more limited impact affecting these markets.
The effect of the Arab Spring on Italian exports seems to have petered out already in 2011, given the recovery of trade in the first half of last year. The product category most affected by the effect of the political crisis in North Africa is that of oil and derivatives: over 42% of the value of Italian exports in the area in this sector in 2010 was, in fact, destined for Libya. Exports to the area's second largest outlet market, Tunisia, also decreased considerably: around 34% in 2011. Despite this, flows to Algeria and Egypt increased, even though offsetting to a very limited extent the collapse in the two main markets: aggregate exports to the region have, in fact, recorded a contraction of 35%.
The second category of products by quantity of Italian exports to North Africa is represented by specialized machines. The contraction of these flows in the region was almost 16% in 2011. However, the reduction in exports of specialized machinery was significantly more limited than that of petroleum products. One reason is given by the lower relative weight represented by Libya as an outlet market, involving Egypt to a greater extent (-21,5%). But if the exports of these goods were partly affected by the Arab Spring, they already showed a marked decline in the years 2009 and 2010. As regards the exports of industrial machinery, the contraction between 2010 and 2011 was 23,5%. From this point of view, the greatest decrease, as well as towards Libya, is observed towards Egypt, the second regional trading partner for this category of goods. The reduction is less strong but still significant in the main destination market, Algeria, which registers a decrease of 13%.
The export of textile products shows a limited reduction between 2010 and 2011 (-1,4%). More specifically, the reduction in exports is greater in Libya (-71%), despite the fact that it is a marginal market for textile products. The most important market in the area is Tunisia, towards which in 2010 67% of exports of textile products from Italy to North Africa were directed and where sales decreased by almost 4%. The second commercial partner in this sector is represented by Morocco, to which however exports have increased by almost 5%, followed by Egypt, where there is a contraction, albeit to a lesser extent. Lastly, the change in flows is positive and substantial in percentage terms towards Algeria, with an increase of over 30%.
