The ferment that the gas sector has been experiencing for several years all over the world does not seem destined to decrease in intensity. After the strong growth of the first years of the new millennium and the freezing of the sector following the economic crisis, an unprecedented scenario is now opening up globally where opportunities are intertwined with threats.
On the one hand, the riots in North Africa seemed to have put the sector in Italy, and beyond, even more in crisis, accentuating the problems of dependence and geopolitical instability of the large producing countries. On the other hand, the dramatic developments of the accident at the Fukushima plant have brought this energy source back into the limelight: if the nuclear option will actually be scaled back globally, and if the constraints will remain with respect to an excessive push for coal for commitments of Kyoto and the Climate Package Energy, gas and renewables become the two energy sources on which the focus will be in the future. And not only in Italy: countries such as Germany, China or Russia have important gas conversion plans for their coal, lignite or fuel oil plants.
The technological dynamics that are making unconventional gases economically exploitable also enter into this already complex picture. These are reservoirs characterized by extreme conditions of depth, pressure and temperature which have made them only marginally accessible so far. According to the association of German geologists, the only unconventional resources of coalbed methane they fluctuate between 135.000 and 370.000 billion cubic meters, which are added to the approximately 183.000 billion of conventional resources. Obviously, these are enormous values. These resources are mainly concentrated in Russia, Ukraine, China, Russia, the United States and Canada. Europe too has significant potential: again according to German geologists, the available resources would amount to over 13.000 billion cubic metres, a value that is almost triple that of conventional gas.
The exploitation of unconventional resources could therefore be an extraordinary opportunity to reduce European energy dependence, also because European companies, led by the Italian Eni, have very advanced technological skills in this field. In fact, in 2010, the six-legged dog group signed an agreement for the exploitation of shale gas with the Venezuelan state oil company and acquired Minsk Energy Resources, the owner of three assets for the exploitation of unconventional resources in the Polish Baltic Sea. The English Shell is also very active in this field, particularly in Australia, where it has acquired Arrow Energy, an oil company focused on unconventional resources, for $3,5 billion; the joint venture signed with the China National Petroleum Company for the exploitation of low permeability gas in the Sichuan region is also significant.
The path, however, is still long and fraught with obstacles, not so much for cost issues but for environmental impacts. Non-conventional deposits are usually small, dispersed throughout the territory and are generally found near aquifers; this means that the exploitation has heavy repercussions on the environment and is, in fact, possible only in areas that are scarcely or not at all anthropised. A condition that is not too relevant for countries like Canada but certainly not delicate for Europe. For example, the moratorium recently passed by France should be read from this point of view. Important efforts in terms of technological innovation are therefore still needed to reduce the aforementioned environmental impacts.
In this complex framework, a future is looming for Italy in which dependence on non-European countries is destined to remain significant, also because EU countries are allocating their scarce resources mainly for internal consumption rather than exports. To date, Italy's energy dependence in the gas sector is closely linked to the countries of North Africa, in particular Algeria and Libya, and to Russia, which alone account for 60% of Italian imports.
However, many companies, both Italian and foreign, are carrying out important investments in Italy destined to significantly change this situation, even if not radically.
A first strategic line concerns investments in new regasification terminals. These are infrastructures capable of receiving gas from a much wider range of countries than those reachable via pipelines: Equatorial Africa, South America and the Persian Gulf. After the construction of the Panigaglia regasification terminal in the 70s, only in recent years has there been a flourishing of new projects, although not all of the same concreteness. The Rovigo (Edison) terminal was recently inaugurated, capable of importing 8 billion cubic meters of gas from Qatar. A project that, after a long authorization process, seems to be able to be implemented in a short time is that of Iren and E.ON in Livorno. Other important projects are those of Enel and ERG in Sicily.
Other companies, on the other hand, are planning the construction of new gas pipelines capable of connecting Italy with supplier countries other than Russia or North Africa, in particular the countries of the Caspian Sea and the Middle East. The two main projects are the Italy-Greece Interconnector promoted by Edison and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, by Statoil, EGL and E.ON. If completed, these infrastructures will bring Italy an additional 20 billion cubic meters: about 25% of the national requirement. The political difficulties encountered by this type of infrastructure should not be hidden: the opposition of some countries, in particular Russia, is strong and gives rise to pressure on the transit countries of competing gas pipelines.
Alongside these diversification policies, there are those who are aiming to strengthen the link with historical suppliers which, to date, cannot be done without. The new South Stream Russia-Italy gas pipeline and the Galsi project from Algeria are on this strategic line.
The result of this interweaving of old and new strategies and opportunities is reflected in an increase in competition between producers, in the potential development of various technologies and in the possible entry into the global market of new supplier countries. It is a competition capable of generating a significant excess of supply which, if not managed correctly, could have very negative consequences for the sector. This is also because the new 2020 targets in terms of renewables and energy efficiency should have a negative impact on gas consumption.
The way many prefer to manage the critical and transitional phase is to act systemically and in a long-term perspective, transforming Italy into a European gas hub, on the model of what has happened, albeit on a smaller scale. smaller, in Belgium now several years ago. Italy is the gas hub with a developed and liquid stock exchange, it would become an important investment catalyst, increase its weight on the European energy scene and allow consumers to pay cheaper bills.
