The brilliant data coming from China have given a new boost to the Bull, determined to round off the most brilliant month of November in history: +13% for the global index, +16% for Singapore, +15% for South Korea. Macroeconomic data released tonight confirms that Beijing is accelerating. The index on manufacturing purchasing managers' expectations rose to a three-year high, to 52,1 from 51,4 in October, a much stronger increase than analysts' expectations. The increase was driven by domestic orders. Foreign demand is growing, but in a less overwhelming way, only because the pandemic, outside of China, slows everything down. The fall in Wall Street futures is holding back more than one share price: Tokyo's Nikkei loses 0,7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,8%, Seoul's Kospi 0,9%.
OIL HOLDS BACK: THERE IS NO AGREEMENT WITH OPEC+
Brent-type oil was down 1,5% to $47,5. Bloomberg reports that OPEC+ members, who met informally yesterday, were unable to reach an agreement on the production regime. There is the risk that today's official meeting will come without a majority proposal. The request to postpone the exit program from the emergency phase forward by three months, which envisaged a gradual relaxation of production restrictions, did not pass.
MEGA MERGER IN SIGHT BETWEEN S&P AND IHS MARKIT
Meanwhile, news arrives from Reuters which, if confirmed, truly represents the new deal of the century: S&P Global is preparing to announce the purchase of IHS Markit, i.e. the merger of the two largest financial data providers in the world. Price of the operation, 44 billion dollars.
But the attention of Piazza Affari today is concentrated on Unicredit, awaiting a fiery board of directors: the fate of the managing director Jean Pierre Mustier is being discussed, who is willing to stay on only if his strategic indications on the future of the Bank are accepted. Some of the managers do not like the plan for the separation of the German and Italian businesses that he supports.
TO THE MES EUROGROUP AND CREDIT BOMB
Great news ahead for the European Union. According to Financial Times, the European Union prepares a detailed proposal for the United States to form a renewed alliance "for global change". The document, which could be approved by the next European Council, includes a series of policy proposals to advance the interests of democracies in the face of the "strategic challenge" posed by China, but also to coordinate digital regulation and the response to Covid -19.
According to Bank of America, at its next meeting on Thursday, the ECB will increase the amount of the emergency fund for securities purchases by 500 billion (from the current 1.350 billion) to fight the recession
Defusing the bad debt bomb should also be discussed at today's meeting of eurozone finance ministers. The starting point for the negotiation should be a document drawn up by European Commissioner Mairead McGuinnes, in which the possibility of favoring the development of a secondary market capable of absorbing incoming non-performing loans is hypothesized. A second option, not an alternative to the first, involves the creation of national bad banks, a chain of laundries capable of cleaning up bank balance sheets. The Supervision of the ECB, led by Enrico Enria, believes that we can reach 1.400 billion euros of non-performing or non-performing loans, from the current 506 billion.
Meanwhile, the most awaited test concerns the Eurogroup: Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri is preparing to announce Italy's go-ahead for the reform of the intergovernmental treaty that established the Mes. Barring last-minute surprises from the Five Stars, the new Mes treaty will be signed on January 27.
The government is also working on the Recovery Plan team, with a central coordinator who reports directly to both Palazzo Chigi and the technical structures of the European Commission and six managers in charge of macro-projects (digitalisation, green transition, education and training, social inclusion and health) with a team of 50 experts each.
Preliminary data on inflation today should confirm a negative figure for the entire Eurozone for the fourth consecutive month.
ANALYST SEE PINK FOR STOCK EXCHANGES AND BONDS
“The pandemic has yet to be tamed, but optimism about the recovery of corporate accounts already prevails. According to analysts, it will be the best year for equities since 2003. Unfortunately, however, analysts are usually wrong”. Thus, with a touch of irony, the Financial Times comments on the forecasts for the recovery, once the effectiveness of vaccines is verified: corporate earnings growth could reach 50% in Europe and 22% in the United States and the rally could continue throughout 2022 in some sectors, from airlines to tourism. The upsurge in GDP will support the exploit: +5%, according to average forecasts, +6% for Goldman Sachs.
High-risk bonds also made a strong recovery: junk bonds, which in October had to pay a rate of 8%, closed the month at around 3%. On Wall Street the most conspicuous recoveries concern American Airlines, the AMC cinema chain and Viking cruises.
US LABOR MARKET, THERE IS NO OPEC+ AGREEMENT YET
Overseas, the markets are looking in particular at the statistics on the US labor market: the data released on Friday should certify the start-up of 500 new jobs, less than the 638 at the end of October.
Both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and outgoing Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin will speak at the Treasury Finance Committee.
Spotlights on today and tomorrow on the OPEC+ summit. After a quiet start to November, at 35 dollars a barrel, crude oil has gradually recovered positions in parallel with the improvement in the prospects of the pandemic and consumption.
WALL STREET DIVIDES TESLA'S DEBUT IN TWO
Will Wall Street be strong enough to handle Tesla's entry into the S&P index? Or, for the first time in the history of the markets, will a quotation be diluted over two days to avoid excess volatility? The leaders of the US Stock Exchange, second The Wall Street Journal, are inclined to dilute the Tesla effect on products in a couple of days, from funds to ETFs that will have to satisfy Elon Musk's giant, which, according to forecasts, could generate a turnover of over 100 billion dollars on the day of the debut.
THE NIKOLA/GM AXIS TAKES THE FIELD
In the meantime, the Dow Jones, the stock market of the more traditional economy, is aiming to consolidate the 30 mark after Friday's decline. To follow the accounts of Zoom, the video conferencing company that sparked during the lockdown. In the spotlight Nikola: the electric truck company (for now only announced) owned by CNH should sign a financial and technological agreement with GM.
