Twenty-six out of forty stocks ended November higher. The balance of the month for Piazza Affari is overall positive despite the continuing shocks on the price lists. Two main themes that have captured the attention of investors: the collapse of oil to a four-year low and Mario Draghi's explicit openness to Quantitative Easing.
After the OPEC meeting, which decided to keep oil production unchanged, the WTI collapsed below 70 dollars a barrel, the lowest for four years. The market rushed to buy government bonds as spreads in the Eurozone hit new lows and hurt the currencies of oil-producing countries like Norway and Russia. The ruble has also updated new lows. The effects were then felt on the shares of energy companies. Saipem, Tenaris, Eni suffered on the Ftse Mib, which in fact closed the month at the bottom of the Ftse Mib index: Tenaris -14,4%, Saipem -7,3%, Eni -5,1%.
Conversely, falling fuel prices boosted airline, traffic and transportation stocks. In November, the performances of World Duty Free, fourth best blue chip with a rise of 15,8%, Autogrill +12%, Atlantia +8,5% are thus evident.
However, according to the ex-director of the Economist, Bill Emmot, Europe's growth will be relaunched precisely by the collapse in the price of oil, which has fallen by 40% in the last six months: the drop in the price of oil will lead to greater power purchasing power for European consumers and will allow them to spend more on other goods. In addition, cheaper oil will also have an impact on boosting business confidence. In other words, the drop in oil is like a tax cut that makes you feel richer. For Emmot, with such a lastingly low oil price, the Italian GDP and that of other Western European countries could increase by 1% or even 2% a year.
In the meantime, the support for the price lists has come from the Eurotower: the president Mario Draghi has officially opened explicitly to the possibility of the purchase of government bonds by "in case of need". The banks have digested the ECB stress tests published at the end of October and have regained ground. The sector is overall positive, even if the gains have not affected all institutions: the best is Intesa Sanpaolo +6,6%, followed by Unicredit +4,5% and Mps which manages to close the month with a positive balance ( +4,1%). Mediobanca +3,1% and Ubi Banca +0,7%. Banca Popolare di Milano -0,4%, Banco Popolare -3,5%, Bper -5,8% slip into the red.
Lights and shadows for asset management securities despite October confirming the golden moment for the sector and total funding exceeding 110 billion euro since the beginning of the year: Mediolanum +4,8%, while Azimut -0,3% . Generali rises by 6,8% after the CEO Mario Greco announced the achievement of the targets in advance and the presentation of a new three-year plan in May 2015.
In November, stocks recorded disappointment over third-quarter Japanese GDP that ended in recession (-0,4% on the previous three months and -1,6% on an annualized basis), a mixed set of US data with GDP exceeded expectations (+3,9%) and unemployment fell to its lowest level since 2008 (5,8%) but less than expected, while consumer confidence dropped by surprise. Furthermore, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's investment plan has failed to warm up the markets. The public sector will disburse 21 billion euros while Juncker hopes to attract, thanks to leverage, private capital equal to 15 times that amount.
Among the best stocks of the month, luxury is back with Yoox gaining first place, with a leap of 29,9%. A little below follows Ferragamo +16,6% and Moncler rises by 7,4%. Luxottica +5,8%. At a distance follows Tod's +1,4%.
Utilities in difficulty: if A2A rises by 5,3%, Snam loses 0,7%, Terna 2,7%, Enel 3,8%. Finally, in light Mediaset +23,2%, second best blue chip, Stm, +14,5%, FCA +14,3%, Buzzi Unicem +11,4% and Finmeccanica +9,9%. Telecom Italia +1,4%.
