In Veneto many companies have practically never closed, too many duties and variables to govern for the autumn. In the energy-intensive manufacturing districts, the beating heart of the national economy which after Covid brought exports to levels never recorded before, the fear of finding yourself really facing the threshold of a ravine is spreading. She had never even experienced the intoxication of one election campaign in the middle of summer with a war in the heart of Europe and an energy crisis that could make even those who lived through the XNUMXs pale.
The alarm of the trade associations
The messages from the trade associations are clear: if the mad race in the price of energy is not curbed, many companies will soon decide to suspend activities. Talking about energy lockdown it is no longer taboo. An eventuality that would mark the end of an industrial model, with virtually unlimited energy and an acceptable price, which has made this area of industrial Europe one of the great global centers of value chains.
The president of Confindustria Veneto, Enrico Carraro, by now it evokes the scenario of a war economy to decipher the present of Italian industry. "We can start talking about"war economy”? Perhaps yes, given this exponential growth in the price of energy which, it must be said, also has a strong speculative factor. The companies whose energy component is residual compared to their margin or the more structured ones, even in terms of financial instruments, can still hold up (for a short period) but energy-hungry companies and SMEs risk having to stop».
The calculations elaborated by Confindustria Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Lombardy and Veneto have just been published: if in 2019 the total electricity and gas costs incurred by the industrial sector of the four regions amounted to around 4,5 billion euros, in 2022 the extra costs rwill add a share of approx 36 billion euros (41 billion in the worst case scenario).
«Then I wonder – continues Carraro – whether it is better for the State to invest extraordinary resources to control these increases or to face the economic and social consequences of a production stop in the country. The phenomenon of reshoring and the shortening of the supply chains with the return of production is also being interrupted, indeed there is an evident risk of reversing the trend to look for "energy-competitive" countries and this will lead our country to suffer a setback in terms of of international competition. The quality and innovation of our products retain a strong appeal but certainly not everyone can afford to sell at the price of a "premium or luxury" product. We need to reverse course and do it urgently because these costs will soon lead to a slowdown in domestic demand and serious repercussions on citizens' purchasing power».
Businesses between energy crisis and electoral campaign
La energy storm it comes at a very delicate moment for the country, squeezed between the promises of the electoral campaign and an autumn that will once again put the solidity of our political system to the test.
«The system as a whole needs to be reviewed because the world and the conditions of the international market, amidst the pandemic, war, speculation and the reorganization of the great world powers, have once again turned upside down. Draghi has one advantage: he is competent and is esteemed in the world, first he does the math, then he works and then he speaks. The electoral campaign is showing us that politics, on the other hand, prefers to do the opposite and find itself, only when it is too late, to see that the accounts don't add up", he observes Laura Dalla Vecchia, president of Confindustria Vicenza.
Gas price ceiling and reform of the electricity price formation mechanism
The industrialists of the northern quadrilateral are asking for the introduction of a first emergency measure cap on the European or national gas price, measure difficult to carry out for a government in office only for current affairs. «In Italy there is an “industrial question” – continues the president of the Vicenza industrialists – which is not limited to the important, urgent and felt problem of energy. A Venetian company that today has orders and a market, has the possibility of producing and perhaps even increasing its production, today runs the risk of deciding that in any case it is not worth investing here. It is becoming prohibitive to do what a company must do: being able to cover labor costs, raw material costs and industrial costs with the sale of its products and services. Today, doing so is a feat at the limit of the bearable. The costs of raw materials and energy are insane, the cost of labor (which does not only include the cost of salaries which in Italy is in any case burdened by a now unsustainable tax burden) puts us out of the market, not to mention that even if we manage to overcome these rocks, it is really very difficult to find skilled labour. For example, to cover a third shift, the night shift, which would make it possible to increase production».
The industrialists also ask the reform of the electricity price formation mechanism from that of gas and the destination of a national quota of production from renewable sources at an administered cost for the manufacturing industry. In essence, companies are asking to temporarily shore up the leaks in an energy system that really risks bringing the industrial system to its knees, within an economic situation that is even more worrying than that of the first lockdown.
«Companies absolutely need to political stabilitywhich is missing in our country. In addition to the Italian problems, today European and international ones add up, many variables that make it very difficult even to make plans in the very short term», explains Valentina Zago, general manager of the Pro-Gest spa group, a giant in the Treviso paper and packaging sector. Super energy-intensive machines that work 24 hours a day, every day, 24 days a year, along the paper supply chain that starts from the pulping and reaches the finished product.
«Fixed costs are out of control, how can we compete with our competitors who work in countries that have energy prices three times lower than ours? Even staying here in Europe, just go and see the energy tariffs of Spain, the UK and Turkey». Last March Pro-Gest spa had blocked the lines with an energy cost of 200 euros per megawatt hour, now we are above 300. «In March the market was buoyant, now we can see the first heavy slowdowns in the economic cycle. We just have to talk to each of our customers and try to review the rates. August was usually the month of stops, maintenance and spare parts in view of the restart at the beginning of September. As of August 30, we are still waiting to understand at what prices we will be able to maintain orders and order backlog. The next ten days will be crucial to understanding what will happen».
