The real estate market sees land on the horizon, but the landing is still far away. The uncertainty that characterizes the current economic situation and the allocation strategies of the banking system expose the real estate sector to fluctuations within a framework which, in some of its components, shows a tendency to improve.
“The timid optimism that had spread towards the end of 2013 – reads the Observatory on the Real Estate Market 2014 edited by Nomisma – with reference to the prospects of the real estate sector, was only partially reflected in the actual dynamics recorded. The expected interruption of the decline in real estate unit transactions, both residential and business, did not take place and despite the revision of prices, the size of the discounts and the evident excess of supply, the recovery in sales is struggling to take off" . The study referred to by Nomisma relates to 13 intermediate cities: Ancona, Bergamo, Brescia, Livorno, Messina, Modena, Novara, Parma, Perugia, Salerno, Taranto, Trieste and Verona.
For Nomisma, the weight of the credit component is confirmed as decisive in the orientation of future dynamics; a persistent increase in loan requests continues to be countered by supply management, which in most cases is still careful and selective. The "cleaning" of bank balance sheets appears to be an unavoidable step towards greater support for the real economy. The scenario of partial recovery of disbursements, albeit at levels incomparable with the pre-crisis peaks, appears consistent with the "normalisation" process recently launched.
If on the side of values controversial indications emerge, which do not allow us to exclude a new wave of recession, on that of transactions the available elements lead us to believe that a path of gradual ascent has now been undertaken, which in any case promises to be slow and not without pitfalls. The Report reads: “The almost 404 sales of housing units in 2013 represent the lowest point of a curve, the trend of which, after the downturn in recent months, will take on a progressively more marked inclination without, however, allowing up to 2016 the exceeding of the threshold of 500 transactions, considered incompressible until a couple of years ago”.
If some signs of change appeared in the major Italian markets during the second half of 2013, the first signs of a cycle reversal can be seen also in the 13 intermediate markets, which can reasonably be ascribed to the first months of the current year.
Property sales suffered a sharp contraction in 2012, which was followed by a new, decidedly smaller decline in 2013. This is a trend common to all urban markets, both metropolitan and provincial.
In the last five years in Italy the buying and selling market has shrunk by 41% in the residential sector (ie 280.900 fewer transactions, on average 56.200 per year) and by 46% for that of properties intended for the service sector and commerce. The overall reading is one of progressive exhaustion of the strong recessionary drive and of gradual stabilization of the market on quantities which, compared to the pre-crisis period, have decreased between 40-50%.
If within the residential segment of the major markets it is possible to perceive the interruption of the negative trend, in the 13 intermediate markets a weak sign reversal is perceived.
In a market in which the weight of the opportunistic component has grown significantly, to the detriment of the long-term component, the rental segment shows more positive dynamics: the housing sector in the large markets records a stabilization from the point of view of the contracts stipulated, while in the 13 intermediate markets the signals are once again weaker.
In conclusion, the interpretation of a "shy improvement" can also be proposed for the 13 intermediate markets.
