Backtrack by Donald Trump on immigration: children will no longer be separated from their "migrant" parents at the border. The joint pressure of his wife Melania and Pope Francis has forced a brake on the US president.
The same is unlikely to happen on the trade front, where various factors favor the president's hard line:
- The US economy accelerates. According to the New York Times, the latest data even indicate a growth of 4,5-5% in the second quarter thanks to the boost in consumption.
- The USA are much less exposed to the trade trend than their competitors: only 12% of the gross domestic product against 44% in the European Union.
- The threat of tariffs alone has instead already had significant effects on European partners, as evidenced by the warning launched during the night by Daimler.
- China, the toughest adversary, is not just reacting with customs measures. While awaiting any retaliation on the purchase of the t Bonds, Beijing responded with the devaluation of the renmimbi, which dropped this morning to 6,497 against the dollar: -1,5% in one week, to its lowest in five months.
WALT DISNEY RAISES ON FOX: 71,3 BILLION
International tensions are not slowing down the price lists too much, today and tomorrow focused on the outcome of the meeting of oil producers in Vienna.
Asian markets were mixed this morning. Positive ground for Japan, supported by the rise of the dollar against the yen. Chinese stock markets also rose, thanks to the support of the monetary authorities, ready to widen the credit lines to compensate for the damage caused by US duties.
Contradictory session for the US markets: the Nasdaq (+0,7%) achieved a new historic record, as did the Russell 2000 index of small and medium-sized companies and the Toronto Stock Exchange. Instead, the Dow Jones slows down (-0,17%). S&P 500 +0,17%
On the corporate front, Walt Disney holds the bench, which he raised to 71,3 billion the offer for 21st Century Fox (+ 7,5%).
IRAN OPENS TO A RISE IN PRODUCTION
Third day of decline for Brent oil, this morning traded in Singapore at 74,3 dollars a barrel (-0,5).
Iran has declared its willingness to support a moderate increase in production, in any case lower than that acceptable to Saudi Arabia and, above all, to Russia. What makes a drop in prices very difficult is the constant growth in demand: US refineries are struggling to cope with demand.
In Piazza Affari Eni closed down (-0,7%) on the day of the sale to Mubadala Petroleum a 10% stake in the Shorouk concession, offshore Egypt, where the super-giant Zohr gas field is located. According to a note, Eni, through its subsidiary Ieoc, holds a 50% stake in the block.
BUSINESS PLACE RISES, THEN FALLS BACK: +0,16%
After a brilliant morning, the European Stock Exchanges retreated and failed to attempt a rebound, thanks to the weakness of the Dow Jones. Concerns about the escalation of duties (EU retaliation will take place tomorrow) and the slowdown of the economy in the Old Continent justify the line of moderation on rates confirmed by Mario Draghi at the Sintra summit. On the same occasion, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, reiterated that the US economy is ready to support a gradual rise in the money price. The euro remains weak, below the threshold of 1,16 against the dollar, at 1,1591.
Yesterday the banking sector also supported the Milan Stock Exchange (+0,16%). The index thus closed in positive territory at 22.157 points, after trading slightly up to 2,54 billion euro.
Frankfurt closed up 0,14%. Daimler USA has announced a cut in profits for the current year: the duties imposed by China on cars imported from the United States have put its Mercedes SUVs, produced in the States and sold in China, out of the market. Martin Daum, head of trucks of the German group, declared that "duties make our life much more difficult".
London rises (-0,31%) on the day in which Theresa May passed a difficult test in the Commons on Brexit. The pound fell to a seven-month low against the dollar, at 1,3169, on the eve of today's meeting of the Bank of England: given the slowdown in the economy, there is unanimous opinion that rates will remain unchanged.
The only square in negative territory was Paris (-0,34%). Madrid +0,34%, Zurich +1,01%.
DRAGHI: THE FRANCO-GERMAN AGREEMENT "ENCOURAGING".
"It is still too early to assess the monetary policy impact of an escalation of trade tariffs between the United States and its partners, but there is no reason to be optimistic." To say the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. The head of the Eurotower then said that the Franco-German proposal to strengthen the monetary union through a eurozone budget is an encouraging step that should be welcomed.
THE SPREAD RISES TO 219, TEN YEAR TO 2,555%
End of the session with little movement for the BTPs. Sales concentrated on longer maturities. The 219-year spread closed at 220 basis points, after a brief break of 2,555, and the XNUMX-year rate at XNUMX%. The market should liven up today at least on the primary front, with the French and Spanish auctions.
BANKS STILL SUPERSTAR, MESSINA EXPLAINS ALLIANCES
Piazza Affari found comfort in the banking sector for the second consecutive day thanks to the expectation of a more accommodating strategy of the ECB Supervision on NPLs. The race is led by Banco Bpm, which closed up by 2,71%, by Bper Banca (+2,52%), Unicredit (+2,77%) and Ubi Banca (+2,29%).
Intesa Sanpaolo +1,85% on the day of presentation of the new insurance headquarters of the group. The CEO Carlo Messina underlined that the bank is planning an alliance with a large international operator but "the goal is to grow, not to exit: in any operation the condition is to have the majority". The CEO lingered on the cost that the political crisis entailed “We used to capitalize 53-54 billion euros, today we are at 43 billion, we are the fifth largest bank. It is obvious that if you go down to 33 billion you are contestable in the European context”. The intervention of the Minister of Economy, Giovanni Tria avoided the worst, "but probably they should have been said a month ago and this would have prevented the spread from rising and the stock market from collapsing".
Speaking of non-performing loans, the specialist DoBank achieved a rise of 5,96% the day after the presentation of the industrial plan.
FAMILY CAPITALISM: RECORD UP, FERRAGAMO DOWN
In the spotlight, for opposite reasons, two family groups.
Recordati gains 2,74% on the confirmation of negotiations with CVC for the sale of a share even if it underlines that there are many obstacles to overcome and therefore there is no certainty on the continuation of the negotiations and on their timing”.
Salvatore Ferragamo, on the other hand, collapses (-8,44%) after the placement of 3,5% by the reference shareholder with a 5% discount on the listing, higher than expected.
GENISH: I'M REMAINING WITH TELECOM, BUT SOME ARE READING AGAINST
Telecom Italia closed down 0,35%. The stock was positive in the first part of the session but then retraced after the words of CEO Amos Genish who, among other things, states that in 2019 the company will be promoted to investment grade rating and therefore dividend distribution. The CEO reiterated his "strong commitment to lead this process (of transforming the group), together with a fantastic team of managers to get to this transition, until the end of 2020, even beyond". “Unfortunately – he added – some members of the board are involved in feeding, behind the scenes, false, unreliable speculations, at the same time interfering with the daily efforts of the management”.
Noteworthy in the rest of the list is the new leap by Reno De Medici. The quotation went up to 1,062 euro, the seventh consecutive rise, at a price not seen since August 2002 (+110% since the beginning of the year). Attention was drawn to the first Italian and second European producer of cardboard made from recycled material by the acquisition by the German private equity fund Quantum Capital Partners of 100% of the company Barcelona Cartonboard Sau, active in the coated cardboard sector.
