Mixed start to the financial week after Friday's dramatic finale. in Tokyo theNikkei index loses 0,4% under pressure from Softbank, found guilty of the thrilling swings on technology price lists. The other listings recovered the initial declines after the improving data of the Chinese trade balance thanks to exports +9,2% in August. Unofficial sources write that Beijing intends to lighten its dollar reserves from a thousand to 800 billion dollars.
In the list of Hong Kong, also little moved, loses almost a fifth of the capitalization Semiconductor Manufacturing International: the Wall Street Journal wrote that the White House will soon impose restrictions on sales in the United States, like what it has already put into practice with Huawei .
The US stock exchanges are closed today.
The macro data released on Friday was overall positive. 1,37 million new jobs were created last month, down from +1,7 million in July, but roughly in line with forecasts. Unemployment fell more than expected, to 8,4% from 10,2%: economists had expected 9,8%. The level of jobless people is back below the 10% threshold for the first time since April, when it reached a peak of 14,7%
La strong and unexpected fall in unemployment it could give more arguments to the Republicans in the negotiations with the Democrats on the new support measures for companies and families. The negotiations should resume in earnest this week, coinciding with the return of the parliamentarians to Washington. In recent days, the Federal Reserve has invited politicians not to reduce aid because the macroeconomic situation remains fragile.
Economists expect Congress and the White House to agree within a few weeks on a $1.500 trillion plan, about half of the first, passed in April.
In the meantime, the word passes to Europe.
ECB IN THE FIELD TO HOLD THE EURO
The prospect of a revaluation of the euro against the dollar is one of the uncertainties weighing on the financial week that includes the meeting of the directors of the European central bank. Spirits were warmed by the surge in the single currency, which jumped to 1,20 on the dollar before the warning of Philip Lane, the banker closest to Mario Draghi's lesson, did not provoke a vigorous reaction. The markets wonder if Frankfurt, under pressure from the choices of the Federal Reserve and the drop in inflation, has measures in the pipeline to avoid the risk of revaluations of the single currency such as to compromise the sluggish post-pandemic recovery. Measures could include increased central bank market buying or other stimulus measures. The Eurotower could pave the way for a change of strategy on the inflation target.
GERMAN RELEASE TEST
The economic week opens today with data on industrial production from Germany in July, after the monthly +8,9% achieved the previous month. The data could confirm the encouraging signs for the recovery of the economy of the 'locomotive of Europe' that arrived in recent days, with the improvement of the estimates on the decline in GDP in 2020 (-5,8% against the -6,3% estimated in April) and the "V-shaped recovery" announced by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier. However, the real bet for the markets is on Tuesday, when Eurostat will release the final GDP of the Eurozone in the second quarter and it will be understood how hard Covid-19 has hit the economy of the Eurozone (the second estimate is -12, L
AFTER THE STORM THE TECH HUNTS FOR BALANCE
No less important for the performance of the stock markets is the development of the storm that hit the technological stocks last week, pushing the Nasdaq guide values to extreme limits. The calendar offers a precious day of rest for the US markets, today closed for holidays. The right opportunity to settle the speculative excesses.
THE JAPANESE SOFTBANK IS THE CAUSE OF THE BUBBLE
At the origin of the phenomenon, in addition to the good state of the sector, there was the speculative bubble triggered by the Japanese giant SoftBank which made purchases worth tens of billions of dollars by implementing various types of derivatives to amplify the leverage effect with a profit of 4 billion dollars. An operation that coincided, among other things, with the issue of new Tesla and Apple securities flooded by demand. The title of the Apple alone surpassed the capitalization of the British stock exchange. The fever is back in the finale:. the Nasdaq index closed the week down by 3,2 percent (from -6 two hours after closing). In the last period, the bad days/weeks of the tech price list have systematically turned out to be excellent buying opportunities. Every time the Nasdaq has lost more than 2%, since mid-June the index has recovered its losses within a week. The weekly balance of Dow Jones and S&P is -1,8% and -2,3% respectively.
GUALTIERI: ITALIAN GDP IN STRONG RECOVERY, ABOVE -10
A note of optimism for Italy came from the Ambrosetti Forum. Minister Roberto Gualtieri said he expected Italy to emerge from the crisis at a higher rate than could have been expected just some time ago. "The average annual fall in Italian GDP" will not "be double-digit". After seeing GDP fall by 12,8% in the second quarter, the minister thus expects a strong rebound in the third quarter.
Piazza Affari's attention remains focused on the networks. Gualtieri focused on the agreement between Tim and Cdp (through Open Fiber): "There is a prospect of a solution for the single TLC network which is "positive and useful for accelerating investments and having a neutral and open network". Expectations are rising for the possible role of Mediaset +6% on Friday.
An agreement on Aspi is close for Minister De Micheli. "Negotiations are underway - he says - both on the ministerial front, which concerns the de facto rewriting of the concession and the investment plan for the next few years, and there we have almost completed work, on the other hand with moderate optimism we are also addressing the issue of the corporate structure which is in its final stages.
