With particular virulence yesterday the financial markets signaled widespread fears of a recession that go well beyond the forecasts, already revised downwards, for the economy of the main countries, and the distrust in an easing of tensions within the euro triggered by the Greek crisis. There is great uncertainty about immediate developments in the coming days. Those involving the European public debt market are awaited with bated breath, with Italy at the center of attention.
But there is also great expectation for President Obama's speech on the interventions he intends to develop to support the American economy which continues to lose speed. In both cases, operators are looking for a compass that marks the route and allows for certainties to be anchored to in the short term. In fact, in the United States as in Europe, the pre-crisis references have disappeared, and we still don't have any new ones. The years of "Chimerica", the bubbles that made US consumers feel richer, pushing them to spend more, thus supporting American and Chinese growth with debt, cannot be re-proposed.
On the other hand, not even the new regime that has replaced private debt with public debt, with an unusual explosion of the deficit, accompanied by an equally unusual Fed policy for the amount of money introduced at zero cost, fails to revive the economy. So what are the future prospects of the first world economic power? With this question, not resolved by the recent prestigious symposium in Jackson Hole, Obama will have to contend when he speaks on Thursday.
Europe must answer an equally fundamental question. It is about the future of the euro which started to become uncertain after the crisis which instead demonstrated its benefits. An uncertainty deriving from the distrust instilled in increasing doses with the attitude of the German government towards the Greek problem, with the result of extending the speculative attacks on the Italian, Spanish and, marginally, also on the French debt. Now, unfortunately, the Italian government has become decisive for the fate of the euro which, with the confusion made on the maneuver to which it was committed, is causing the situation to precipitate.
With decisive and incisive measures for eliminating the public deficit and relaunching growth, our government could not only help restore confidence in the markets but would also have had the opportunity to credibly push for progress in monetary union with Eurobonds which he declares to hold dear, being supported by the authoritative opinions of Romano Prodi and Mario Monti.
Instead it seems that Berlusconi wants to make Italy assume the responsibility of bringing the single currency towards the collapse. Of course, in this way no one would take away an important place in history.
