No surprise: less growth e more deficit in the new economic forecasts of the Meloni government. The cabinet approved the Update note on the economics and finance document, the programmatic framework within which the next one will be painted Budget law (expected for October 20th) and which will not allow all the parties' wishes to be fulfilled. There is talk of 0,8% for 2023 and 1,2% for 2024. In the spring, 1% and 1,4% are forecast respectively. Moreover, the global and European macroeconomic framework has changed. And the margins for manoeuvre, already limited, disturb the sleep of the centre-right. There are the promises made during the election campaign, the new increases in the price of energy, and the nervousness of the markets (in recent days the yields on the 4,7-year BTP have reached XNUMX%, also driven by the increase in rates wanted by the ECB, causing the spread to skyrocket). But also the overshoot deficit/gdp – which in 2023 rises to 5,3% for the accounting of the Superbonus, without which it would have respected the April estimate of 4,5% – given that the maneuver must be examined by Brussels, even if this year it is still possible avoid European constraints on public spending before the return of Stability pact.
Nadef: more debt to finance the maneuver
The fundamental data is that of deficit in relation to the GDP for 2024: how much does the government intend to borrow to find resources to finance the end-of-year budget? The executive exceeds the programmatic 4% threshold, raising the bar to 4,3%. This would open up a deficit space of 0,5 percentage points to raise 8-10 billion, all focused on the priorities listed by Palazzo Chigi: from tax wedge cut from healthcare to measures to support the birth rate and low-medium income families. “In addition to significant allocations for the renewal of the public employment contract,” said the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti during the post-Cdm press conference. Which is why the executive once again finds itself desperately searching for resources. As also demonstrated by the controversial tax on banks' extra profits (however, it is around 3 billion according to the estimates of the new version). The path outlined by the Energy decree approved on Monday is a taste of what will be a rather streamlined maneuver, and which should be around 22 billion.
The Superbonus node
The 2024 debt is set at 140% of GDP. On these predictions, however, there is the burden of Super bonus, although the government may regain room for maneuver this year. After Eurostat's decision to evaluate the expenses related to the building bonuses relating to 2023 as "payable", therefore all to be accounted for this year and not in subsequent budgets. For 2024, however, Eurostat is waiting for the first part of 2024 to decide whether to apply the "non-payable" principle and therefore spread the expenses over the years of duration of the tax credit. A postponement that actually makes spending forecasts very complicated.
Crackdown on migrants, extension of smart working and first home guarantee
In addition to the Nadef, the government has approved other measures, including the one on migrants. This is the fifth provision in nine months to which we must add the ministerial decree with the 5 thousand euro "guarantee". The new migrant decree contains a crackdown on expulsions and the phenomenon of "fake" minors and increases the military contingent of the "Safe Roads" operation by 400 units, to be allocated to the main Italian railway stations. Green light also for the decree which includes the extension of smart working in the PA for fragile workers until December 31st and the warranty state up to 80% forpurchase of the first one property of young couples.
