The number of Italians who want to buy a house is increasing, but the fundamental question on mortgages is always the same: is the fixed rate or the variable more convenient? Hard to go wrong right now, as both have hit new lows. According to what emerges from the Monitor on the mortgage market edited by Intesa Sanpaolo, once again at the end of 2015 the drop affected both the floating rate and the fixed rate, but the latter to a more marked extent.
In particular, in the fourth quarter of last year the fixed rate remained below 3%, closing the month of December at 2,84%, a new historical low, down by 85 basis points compared to the same period of 2014.
Also the variable rate it reached new lows, even falling below 2% in December 2015 (1,97%, 58 bps less than at the end of 2014) and confirming very favorable credit conditions.
Overall, the average rate on new residential mortgages to households stood at 2,49% in December, 34 basis points lower than the end of 2014.
Il difference between fixed rate and floating rate it decreased again slightly in the last two months of 2015, closing at 87 basis points, 26 less than in December 2014. This dynamic continues to favor the recomposition of mortgages towards the fixed rate.
It is no coincidence - the Intesa analysts explain again - that the market trend in the second half of last year confirms the growing importance of fixed-rate residential mortgage disbursements, whose incidence on the total amounted to an average of 57%, almost three times the 20% in the same period of 2014.
This evolution of flows is partly linked to renegotiations, which continue to be very successful, also because in the last few months of 2015 the rates charged on this type of contract aligned with those of fixed-rate mortgages.
In the third quarter of 2015 substitutions and substitutions they represented 25% of the disbursements of medium/long-term loans for the purchase of homes, a percentage higher than the 16% of the first quarter. In terms of stock, renegotiated loans amounted to 2015% of loans to households for house purchase in September 10,4, up from 7,9% in March (first data available).
In general, in the second half of 2015 the absolute value of home loans it more than doubled on average compared to the same period of the previous year, while in September 2015 alone, sales grew by 10,8% on an annual basis.
According to the January Abi report, new disbursements last year they recorded an annual increase of 97,1% compared to 2014, with an incidence of subrogations on total new loans of around 31,6%. The strong recovery in new disbursements is also being reflected in the total of outstanding household mortgages which, at the end of 2015, recorded a positive change of 0,7% compared to the end of 2014, thus confirming the recovery of the mortgage market.
The increase in this sector, underlined the deputy general manager of the ABI, Gianfranco Torriero, "is much higher than the figure for loans to businesses (+11,6% per annum in the whole of 2015) due both to the low level of rates and for the choice of households to invest in real estate”, a trend which is also confirmed “by the signals on sales”.
Among the characteristics of the new operations, however, Intesa Sanpaolo notes the growing weight of disbursements of limited amount, a constant phenomenon in more recent years, which also continued in 2015.
Since 2012, in fact, the trend has reversed which, during the development phase of the mortgage market, had seen a continuous increase in the weight of loans exceeding 125 thousand euros, which came to represent 74% of total disbursements in December 2011 , from 56% at the beginning of 2004 (first data available).
Since then, the share has progressively decreased by 10 percentage points, down to 64% in September 2015. The incidence of disbursements of less than 125 thousand euros has, on the other hand, increased from 26% at the end of 2011 to 36% in the two central quarters of 2015.
At the same time, the progressive slowdown in the contraction of the housing prices: -2,3% year on year in the third quarter of 2015, from the -2,9% recorded in June.
