The American Thanksgiving (or shopping) holiday has not changed the trend that has dominated the markets since the beginning of the Trump era: the dollar remains close to its highest level since 2003, confirming its strength against the euro (this morning traded at 1,05685 on Asian markets). But the attention of the markets has now shifted to the Italian referendum and the consequences it could have on the ECB's choices. Yesterday, Vice President Victor Constancio underlined that the Bank is ready to act to preserve financial stability and avoid contagion if the outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum were to lead to a shock for Italian banks.
But the hawks are lurking: according to "internal sources", reports Bloomberg, the bank could postpone the lengthening of the Qe, given that the increase in market yields has eased the scarcity on offer. It is unlikely that it will go like this, but the rumor suggests that not all the directorate is sided with the president, a sensation that immediately conditioned the markets: the yield of the 2,13-year BTP ended yesterday with a rate of 2,10%. from 187,923% the previous day, erasing the day's gains, while the spread with the German Bund rose to XNUMX points, confirming investors' caution.
Only skirmishes, for now, which also explain the weakness of Piazza Affari despite the positive outcome of the Monte Paschi assembly: Italy, at least between now and December 4, remains under special surveillance. But Today is Black Friday: computers and smartphones are tuned to shopping, not stock quotes. Wall Street closes its doors at 19pm (13pm Italian). Only from Monday we will go back to dancing.
NIKKEI ON THE TOP SINCE FEBRUARY, MUMBAI RECOVERS
The yen-dollar relationship conditioned the session in Tokyo. In the morning, the US currency rose to almost 114 against the Japanese currency. Then the trend reversed. As a consequence, the Nikkei index, already up by 1%, is starting to close at parity, remaining however on the highs of the last 10 months.
China's stock markets are mixed: Hong Kong is up 0,3% and Shanghai is down 0,2%. Seoul's Kospi index gains 0,2%. The Sydney Stock Exchange is up 0,4%. Mumbai (BSE Sensex index) rises by 0,7% while the rupee, which fell during the week near its historic lows against the dollar, rebounds.
MILAN IN RED. 6,25 BILLION BTP AT AUCTION ON TUESDAY
European futures suggest a flat opening for the stock exchanges of the Old Continent. In Milan, the only Stock Exchange down yesterday, the Ftse Mib index closed at 16.501 points, down by 0,19%. Paris (+0,17%), Frankfurt (+0,22%), London (+0,07%) and Madrid (+0,24%) did better.
The month-end auctions kick off today with the offer of Ctz and Btpei. On Tuesday, the Treasury will make available to investors between 4 and 6,25 billion in 5 and 10-year BTPs and two CCTEUs in the auction on Tuesday 29 November.
The Ministry of the Economy canceled the mid-December medium/long-term auction. This was announced in a note that refers to the wide availability of cash and the reduced financing needs.
Meanwhile, the pressure on eurozone debt isn't limited to Italian stocks. Yesterday the spread between the French Oat and the Bund reached 52 points, the highest since 2014.
DESCALZI (ENI): 700.000 BARRELS OF EXCESS OIL
Brent oil lost 1% this morning to 48,5 dollars a barrel, limiting the week's increases. Attention is focused on the next meeting of the producing countries. "There is currently an excess supply of crude oil of 700.000 barrels globally and Eni awaits the decision of OPEC on November 30th," said Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi.
“We expect – reads a report by Anz bank – an agreement within Opec next week. In this case, Brent will rise to 53 dollars a barrel”. Russia, in particular, could reduce its production by 2-300 thousand barrels, said Moscow's energy minister Alexandr Novak. OPEC, at the next summit in Vienna, will propose to its associates to cut production by 880.000 barrels from next January 0,3st. Energy stocks were positive yesterday in Piazza Affari: Eni +0,3%, Tenaris +1,1%, Saipem +XNUMX%.
MONTE PASCHI, THE CONVERSION OF BONDS STARTS ON MONDAY
Thursday was the day of Monte Paschi: +3,3% at the end of the session, even before the conclusion of the ten-hour meeting marathon which approved the 5 billion capital increase with the simultaneous reverse split of the shares, on the basis of one new one for every 100 held, effective from Monday 28 November. In the evening, the BoD followed up on the delegation for the voluntary conversion of the bonds (the yes of about a quarter of the 4 billion in circulation is expected). The co-optation of CEO Marco Morelli and the appointment of Alessandro Falciai as president were also decided. Small shareholders, said outgoing chairman Massimo Tononi, number 150 and own 55% of the capital.
The managing director Marco Morelli said that the positive or negative outcome of the Bank's rescue plan is certainly detached from the outcome of the constitutional referendum. “We have always supported him in meetings with investors. Everyone is free to make assessments on the outcome of the referendum passage. We give an assessment of what we think we can do, regardless of environmental variables”. Morelli then specified that he had met over 280 investors in recent weeks.
A mixed day for the other banks. Sale Carige (+2,7%) awaiting a new extension from the ECB on the recovery plan.
UNICREDIT, ALREADY THIS YEAR THE SALE OF BANCA PEKAO
Unicredit fell by 0,9%. The sale of Banca Pekao is near. The Polish deputy minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, told the Pap agency. The negotiations are in the final stages and it is hoped to reach an agreement this year. In October, rumors had indicated a value of around 2,6 billion euros for the sale of 33% of the institute.
Understanding -0,3%. Mediobanca also fell (-1,02%) defined yesterday by Citigroup analysts as "a UFO in the Italian credit sector". Experts explained that Piazzetta Cuccia “could be seen as an 'outsider' given its unique business model, strategy and efforts to optimize capital. We think the recent plan is based on further reducing fiscal risk."
Banco Popolare closed 2% lower after yesterday's management said the ECB had not asked for any changes to the business plan. In concert, Banca Pop. Milan, close to the merger with the Veronese institute, fell by 2,2%. The right of withdrawal has been exercised by 4,07% of the capital of Bpm and 4,56% of Banco Popolare for a total outlay of 207,1 million (88 million for Bpm shares and 119,1 million for Banco shares). First, however, the shares will be offered as an option to shareholders until December 27 and then on the market. The law reforming the Popolari also allows the institute to decide whether to limit, in whole or in part, the redemption of the shares to safeguard capital levels, the most probable choice.
THE STRONG DOLLAR PUSHES FCA AND FERRARI
“The strong dollar? Let's hope it lasts a while." Thus Sergio Marchionne at the public meeting of Anfia which was held in the Alfa Romeo plant in Cassino which will reach full production capacity in 2018 thanks to the sales of Giulia and Stelvio, the first Alfa Romeo SUV launched last week on the US market.
The appreciation of the dollar largely explains the growth of Fiat Chrysler (+1,74%), the best European automotive stock behind Ferrari (+2,26%). On the other hand, Cnh Industrial (-0,67%) slowed down after the rally on the eve (+6,1%). Banca Akros increased the target price on the stock to 9,25 euro from 7,5 euro, leaving the accumulated rating unchanged.
BLACK FRIDAY EFFECT ON YOOX. SALES ON RCS
Strong sales on RCS (-4,85%). In five years, from 2011 to 2015, the nine main Italian publishing groups lost 32,6% of their turnover (-1,8 billion), accumulated net losses of 2 billion and reduced their workforce by over 4.500 units, falling to 13 thousand total employees. This is confirmed by a study by the Mediobanca research office on the sector: in five years, the sales of newspapers have dropped by one million copies: from 2,8 to 1,8 million in total (-34%).
Yoox rebound (+1,38%) on the eve of Black Friday. Moncler -1,1%. The utilities are weak: Enel -0,4%: Banca Imi has raised the rating of the stock to buy from add with a target price of 4,5 euros. Terna (-1,3%) and Snam (-0,9%) also fell. The exception is Iren (+0,22%), supported by the buy judgment of Equita and by the news of the acquisition of 45% of Gaia (Integrated Environmental Management of Asti) which was awarded the tender for the management of the waste cycle for 15 years in basin of Asti.
