The financial markets float around the highs in the sea of August 15th: declining exchanges can favor ambushes and speculation but the mood remains high thanks to the injection of confidence arriving from the USA, thanks to the improvement in the labor market. It doesn't seem like the time for epochal turning points, but Donald Trump who chose Detroit to present his "fiscal revolution" tries the same: in the event of a Republican victory, his America will lower corporate taxes to 35% (from the current 10 ), and will promote a sort of tax amnesty (XNUMX% on the amount owed) to favor the return of the trillions held by corporations abroad - Wall Street is not heating up much, just as Piazza Affari does not pay too much attention to credit Negative watch on Italy put by Dbrs, the only rating agency that awards us an "A": the Bel Paese, Canadian analysts write, is weighed down by "a combination of political uncertainty around the forthcoming constitutional referendum and pressure on the banks Italian companies, in a context of fragile recovery and a less stable external environment".
WAL MART INVESTS $3,3 BILLION IN JET.COM
In this context, the weather forecast reports:
– Asian stock markets up, with the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific index at its highest for the year. Tokyo is starting to close up 0,6%. Hong Kong slowed overnight and is moving at parity (-0,1%), Shanghai rises by 0,5%.
– Data released tonight show that inflation is stabilizing in China: consumer prices rose 1,8% year-on-year in July, down from +1,9% in June. Growth in July is in line with expectations. Producer prices fell 1,7%, from a 2,6% drop a month earlier.
– The US Stock Exchanges are flat, one step away from the absolute record: S&P 500 -0,09%, Dow Jones -0,08%- The Nasdaq, put under pressure by the decline in pharma stocks (the index of sector, -0,9% biotech) limits the decline to .1,1%.
EXXON THE BEST BLUE CHIP. THE PHARMA SUFFERS
– The rise in oil was not enough to support the indices, which are in any case close to the maximum, driven by the announcement of an upcoming extraordinary meeting of producers announced by Qatar: Brent (+2,6%) rose above 45 dollars .
– The rally in crude oil helped Exxon Mobil rise by +1,3%, today the best blue chip. Chevrons +1%. In Milan, Eni gained 1,1%, Saipem +3%, Tenaris +2,1%.
– Worth noting is the big hit of Wal Mart-0,42%. The distribution giant has acquired for 3,3 billion dollars Jet. Com, the e-commerce group that intends to challenge Amazon's hegemony. This is the most important transaction in the history of electronic commerce.
THE SPREAD GOES DOWN. MILAN +0,7%
Flat calm ahead for the European opening, after a positive day, still in the wake of last week's good data on employment in the USA.
– In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,7%, the Paris Stock Exchange gained 0,1%, Frankfurt +0,6%.
– In all of Europe the best stocks were banks (Stoxx of the sector +1,4%) and insurance companies (+1,4%).
– The drop in interest rates, together with the summer drop in supply, did the Mediterranean "map" good. Positive day for the ten-year BTP which closes at 1,132% (spread at 125) but also for the Spanish Bonos. Portuguese titles did even better. On the other hand, German bonds were weighed down by tomorrow's offer of the new 5-year Bund (12 billion) at the same time as the 6-month Bund auction (XNUMX billion).
BANKS, FITCH SINKS Mt
Activity falls, sales in the banking sector fall, recovering throughout Europe.
The exception is Monte Paschi, which fell by 4,6% to 0,243 to a new historic low for a capitalization of only 712 million, just under double the amount (430 million) paid to advisors on the occasion of the last two increases. The selling erupted yesterday after Fitch placed the bank's BBB rating on the bank's covered bonds under review. On Thursday, the US rating agency had already placed the Sienese institute's long-term rating (B-) under observation due to doubts about the planned 5 billion capital increase and the sale of bad loans in the portfolio
For the next capital operation, according to Reuters, Siena would have to pay 250 million euros in underwriting commissions to Jp Morgan and Mediobanca for the capital increase alone, to which other costs linked to NPL securitizations would be added. The high risk of the operation guarantees the merchant banks higher commissions, between 2,5 and 4% of the total requested from the market, against the 0,5-1% that would be required if the operation were guaranteed by the State.
ATLAS 2, THE SIENA MISSION STARTS WITH 1,715 BILLION
Meanwhile Quaestio has announced that the Atlante 2 fund has exceeded the minimum size required for the start of the activity which will consist of the purchase of junior and mezzanine tranches of non-performing loan portfolios, mostly coming from MPS. 1,715 billion were collected. By the end of September it is expected to rise to 2,5-3 billion with the aim of reaching between 3 and 3,5 billion in funding by the deadline of 31 July 2017. “At that date . concludes the note. any residual resources of Atlante may also be invested".
BOILING EFFECT ON PIAZZZETTA CUCCIA, GENERALI AND MEDIASET
Mediobanca's star shone yesterday, rising yesterday by 3,4%. Purchases were encouraged by the excellent operating results, promoted by the Kepler Chevreux report (Buy judgment confirmed and target price raised to 7,4 euros). But even more influenced by the rumors on the alleged maneuvers of Vincent Bolloré who is allegedly evaluating the increase of his stake from the current 7,3% to 23% thanks to agreements with Unicredit and Fininvest with the aim of aiming for control of Generali, in turn destined for the merger (under minority conditions) with Axa.
The indiscretion, very summery, however favored the rise of Generali +2% (outperform, target price at 13,5 euros according to Mediobanca Securities) on a positive day for insurance companies: Axa rises by 2,6%, Allianz +3 %. In Piazza Affari Unipol +4,4%,UnipolSai +3,8%.
Returning to the banks, note the substantial increases of Banco Popolare +5% and Popolare Milano +3%.
In asset management, the best share is Azimut +2,9%.
Mediaset up +1,82% on the wave of rumors about a possible agreement with Vivendi on the Premium issue. However, it is unlikely that there will be any news before the board of directors of the French group, scheduled for August 25th. For Equita Sim, the Fininvest subsidiary deserves hold, target price 3,5 euros.
RCS, VEGAS SENDS GDF FROM EQUITA
Speaking of Equita, the asset management company chaired by Alessandro Profumo has recently been the subject of an inspection by Consob. The operation, for which the Commission made use of the collaboration of the Guardia di Finanza, is linked to the complaint of the Imh consortium, defeated in the auction by RCS. Equita Sim oversaw the takeover bid and exchange of shares of Cairo Communication against the publishing house.
