There is no peace for the Monte dei Paschi. Yesterday the stock on the stock exchange of the Sienese bank has lost another 3,3%, bringing the capitalization of the institution now below 500 million, just over the 400 million that the institution will have to repay next week to Banco de Santander.
This morning's rebound (+2,9% at the opening), as well as Consob's decision to extend the ban on net short positions on MPS until next January 5, is worth little. In fact, up to now the market has sold shares to buy subordinated bonds, betting on a convenient conversion as part of the capital strengthening operation.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan and Atlas they can't agree on the details of the bridging loan to sell 10 billion bad loans mps. The American Bank wants more control over the securitization processes, but Atlante doesn't agree, because it buys the same loans for 27 cents that cost JPM 18.
As for thecapital increase, the banks of the consortium have made it clear that - considering the current value of Mps - at most it will be possible to collect one and a half billion: certainly not the five mentioned last summer. The rest will probably fall on the shoulders of the bondholders, who will have to "spontaneously" convert their bonds into shares.
The Government, for its part, continues to study a possible plan B by looking for a deus ex machina between sovereign wealth funds, Mostly in Qatar and China.
MPS's agenda at the moment provides for the presentation of the plan on 24 October, the meeting for the conversion of the bonds in November and the increase perhaps as early as 5 December, after the constitutional referendum.
However, if in the end it is not possible to find a market solution - considering that under no circumstances can MPS fail, in order to avoid systemic shocks of international significance - the path remains open for the temporary nationalization. That too, of course, to be put in place after the referendum.
