A strange equilibrium dominates in financial markets, undecided on the direction to take pending the moves of central banks, the American vote and military developments in the Middle East. Conflicting signals from the Fed contribute to the uncertainty: after Janet Yellen, who on Friday had hoped for the need to keep up the pressure on the economy to give impetus to the job market, yesterday Stanley Fischer's declarations of the opposite sign arrived. The central bank's number two said the Federal Reserve was "very close" to meeting its inflation and labor market targets. In this context, the data on US inflation, which will be announced this afternoon, at 14.30 pm, assumes great importance: the consensus expects +1,5% from +1,10% in September.
Uncertainty also involves Europe, awaiting Mario Draghi's indications, and Asia, focused on the next signals from China. The result? Price lists unchanged or slightly down, focused on the analysis of quarterly data. A flat scenario, with the exception of Piazza Affari: the banking game, after the wedding between Bpm and Banco Popolare, got back on track.
Asian stock markets are on positive ground: Tokyo +0,5%, Hong Kong rebounds (+1,1%) after Monday's plunge. The yuan is under pressure: capital outflows from China exceeded the total for 2015 in the first nine months.
The US stocks moved little: the Dow Jones index lost 0,29%, the S&P 500 also around 0,3% and the Nasdaq 0,27%. Significant sales in segments that risk being penalized by the return of inflation. Worst blue chips McDonald's (-1,5%) and Nike (-1,1%).
Dollar slowing down after Fischer's statements. The US currency, which yesterday reached its highest since March 10, slipped against both the euro and the yen. The yield on bonds falls, the 1,77-year bond drops to 1,79%, from XNUMX% on Friday, the highest since the beginning of June.
Industrial production grew by 0,1% in September, up from -0,4% in August and in line with analysts' expectations.
Oil is also down: Wti below 50 dollars. Brent at 51,32. The market has two concerns: a new failure of the agreement between the OPEC producers and signs of a recovery in the production of US shale oil. Weak oil: on Wall Street the sector marks a drop of 0,8%. At Piazza Affari Eni -0,7%, Saipem -0,1%.
NETFLIX FLYING (+20%) AND DISNEY PRINCESS DOLLS
In the meantime, the quarterly season has come into full swing. The most sensational debut concerns Netflix (+20%): the strong rise in subscriptions has surprised operators. Great response also to the results of Hasbro (+7,4%), the second largest toy manufacturer in the world. The company reported a sharp increase in sales ($463 million, up 57%) for children's toys thanks to the "Disney Princess" line.
IBM has interrupted the decline in revenues that had lasted for over three years. But higher revenues in the cloud have only offset lower sales in more mature industries. Net income was $2,85 billion, down from $2,95 billion a year earlier. Revenue was $19 billion, in line with the same period a year earlier. After the Stock Exchange, the stock fell by around 3%.
Bank of America (+0,3%) closed the third quarter of 2016 with a net result close to 5 billion dollars, better than expected. As well as for JP Morgan (+0,3%) and for Citigroup (+0,8%), the area dealing with bond trading fared better than expected.
ONLY PLACE OF BUSINESS IN POSITIVE SOIL
The countdown has started on the European stock exchanges in view of Thursday's meeting of the ECB. Today the first quarterly reports of the Big Europeans arrive, including Danone and Accor. Keep an eye on Burberry's accounts, a sensitive sign of the trend in Chinese demand for luxury goods.
Positive start to the week for the Milan Stock Exchange, which resisted the sell-off on European equities, closing at 16.630 points, up 0,23%. Instead, the other continental markets were weak: Paris lost 0,34%, Frankfurt 0,57%, London 0,78% and Madrid 0,19%.
SLOW START FOR THE BTP ITALIA
A minor start for the offer of the new Btp Italia 2024. The first day closed with orders for 1,2 billion, a figure well below the first day of the bond's offer in April, which raised 2,302 billion on the first day of subscription billion. Among the reasons for the lack of interest from retail customers is the coupon (0,35%), judged too low compared to the previous edition (0,40%). The fact that the Btp Italia issued in the autumn of 2012 for 18 billion will also expire a few days after the end of the collection of orders for the new Btp Italia weighs heavily. The offer will continue today and tomorrow, barring early closure by the Treasury, while the window dedicated to institutional investors will open on Thursday with the possibility of an allotment.
UNICREDIT LEADS THE RACE, TODAY THE PLAN WILL PASS FOR MPS
The banks stood out in Piazza Affari, ready to react to the news of the green light for the merger between Popular Bank, up 0,5%, e Pop. Milan (-4%), a decrease justified by the adjustment of the exchange ratio. In fact, the merger provides for the allocation of one share of the new parent company for each share of Banco Popolare and one share of the new parent company for every 6,386 Bpm shares. Based on Friday's quotations (0,424 euros and 2,55 euros) the exchange ratio was at a premium of 6% in favor of Bpm.
Leading title was yesterday Unicredit (+2,28%). As for the sales plan, according to the Wall Street Journal, Unicredit has set the benchmarks for the sale of about 30% of Bank Pekao to the Polish insurance group Pzu, controlled by the state. Pzu would pay about 11 billion zlotys, equal to about 2,55 billion euros, while Unicredit would maintain a share of about 10%. The Bank also launched a new bond issue one billion euro senior unsecured, maturing on 24 October 2026, receiving orders for over 1,8 billion, mainly from foreign investors.
Important day ahead today for Monte Paschi: il plan developed by Corrado Passera arrives on the board table. The former minister has garnered the interest of some American funds such as Warburg Pincus and Atlas Merchant Capital (led by the former CEO of Barclays Bob Diamond), potentially willing to invest between 1,5 and 2 billion euros in the Sienese bank through a reserved capital increase. The offer would be conditional on the outcome of an in-depth due diligence with an expected duration of one month. In short, if the board of directors gives the green light and there are no hitches, the investment could take place in the second half of November.
GENERALI INSTEAD OF AXA AMONG KEPLER'S FAVORITES
Other stocks in the banking sector are also highlighted. Creval (+8,63%) and Popolare di Sondrio (+5,4%) advance, considered by the market as the next protagonists of the process of transformation into a joint stock company and aggregation. Bper sharply up (+2,11%), confirmed in Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List.
Positive day also for Mediobanca (+1,29%). Spafid, a group company, has acquired Fider srl, a Milanese trust company headed by lawyers Luca ArnaboldI and Alberto Rittatore Vonwiller and accountants, partners of the Carnelutti firm Paolo Baruffi, Gilberto Comi and Andrea Rittatore Vonwiller.
Insurance stocks are booming. Generali gained 2,37%, benefiting from Kepler Cheuvreux's entry into the list of Italian top picks and favorites among European insurers, a list in which the Lion of Trieste will replace Axa. UnipolSai (+2,29%) and Unipol (+1,76%) also performed well.
LEONARDO'S RADAR +2,3% SELECTED BY THE US NAVY
Leonardo advances (+2,33%). The Osprey group's electronically scanned radar has been selected by the US Navy for the MQ-8C Fire Scout remotely piloted helicopter upgrade program.
A sharp rise for Telecom Italia, which rises by 2,7%, promoted by Barclays to Equal Weight. Ferragamo falls (-1,9%), downgraded from Equita to Hold da Buy.
