Taurus energy really seems inexhaustible. The Stock Exchanges continue to break records at all latitudes, from Wall Street, where the Dow Jones achieved the most significant rise in the last month (+0,72%), to Tokyo, where the Nikkei index celebrates its consecutive rise number 17.
Despite the Catalan crisis, Europe is also celebrating: Frankfurt and London are at their all-time highs, Paris has recovered the levels of 2008. Piazza Affari, the best yesterday, is forging ahead to catch up. And in the meantime, today the doors to Monte Paschi are reopening.
A race favored by the possible US tax reform and fueled by the good quarterly results arriving from almost every corner of global finance, which promises to continue even after tomorrow's decisions by the ECB and the appointment of the new Fed president, even if the Republicans they point to the “hawk” John Taylor. In short, the sky seems serene, even too much: watch out for the black swan.
TOKYO CELEBRATES RISE NO.16
Concern about North Korea's next moves (we are talking about chemical weapons) holds back Tokyo (+0,45%) only after 16 consecutive positive sessions and is preparing to welcome Donald Trump. Shinzo Abe seems intent on postponing the reduction of public debt to 2020, after the Olympics. Seoul +0,2%. Mumbai +0,7%.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose by 0,6%, the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges rose by 0,2%. In a few hours, the names of the members of the new Politburo, the heart of Chinese power, will be announced. This completes the Congress that approved the inclusion in the constitution of the reference to the thought of President Xi Jinping, as the inspirer and guide of the Chinese road to communism, together with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaping.
CATERPILLAR AND 3M CHARGE DOW JONES
On Wall Street, it was the industry quarterly that pushed the Dow Jones to a new record at 23.441,76 points. The earnings of S&P (+0,16%) and Nasdaq (+0,18%) are more limited, pending the accounts of the big names in technology.
Pulling the convoy were two champions of the real economy, 3M (+5,9%) and Caterpillar (+5%), supported by the boom in accounts, as well as General Motors (+3%). Only Whirlpool (-10,5%) is not participating in the party.
The dollar against the euro (1,1758) and the yen (113,89) also grew.
OIL AT 58,4 DOLLARS SAIPEM RISES UP: +10%
Oil rose on the back of both rising demand and statements from Saudi Arabia, determined to maintain the cuts despite production problems in Kurdistan. Brent trades at 58,39 dollars a barrel, Wti at 52,43 dollars. on the highs of the last month. Speaking to a Reuters reporter on the sidelines of a conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabian oil minister Khalid al Falih said OPEC and its allies intend to do their utmost to lower oil reserves. crude oil from consuming countries.
Saipem's revenge (+10%) was staged in Piazza Affari thanks to results that were only slightly better than expected. But the company confirmed its 2017 goals, denying profit warning rumors that had depressed the stock in recent days. Tenaris +1%, Eni +0,7%.
EUROPE ON THE RISE WAITING FOR DRAGONS
Great animation for central banks. Between today and tomorrow the governing councils of the central banks of Canada, Sweden, Norway and Turkey are meeting. But attention will obviously be focused on the ECB. European stock exchanges prepare for D-day, decisive for the future of Qe. When the directorate kicks off in Frankfurt tomorrow morning, the deputies of the Catalan Parliament will already be meeting to decide the response in Madrid: perhaps the declaration of independence, perhaps a chain of human shields in the peaceful defense of the institutions. The situation in the capital of the Kingdom is no less tense: measures to defend the unity of the country will be launched on Friday. In this framework, the markets rely on the examination of the quarterly accounts.
Piazza Affari is by far the best stock exchange, thanks also to the rebound of the banks. The Ftse Mib index scores an increase of 1,12% to 22.579 points. Madrid also recovers (+0,44%) ahead of Paris (+0,15%), Frankfurt (+0,08%) and London (+0,03%).
Private sector growth in the euro area slowed more than expected this month. The flash estimate of the composite PMI fell to 55,9 from 56,7 in September, still above the threshold of 50 that separates contraction from expansion.
SPREAD BELOW 160 POINTS, 6 BILLION BOTS COMING SOON
Eve under the sign of caution awaiting the meeting of the central bankers of the Eurozone. The BTPs closed downwards at the end of a session with limited fluctuations, in which the spread on the Bund remained steadily below 160 points. The 2,06-year yield climbed back to XNUMX%.
According to the latest Reuters survey, the forecast is for a cut from 60 to 40 billion euros in monthly purchases starting in January, and a simultaneous extension of the duration of the program by 6-9 months. Particular attention will be paid to maintaining the possibility of further increasing or extending purchases if necessary.
Month-end auctions start in conjunction with the ECB. In fact, the launch of the new Ctz October 2019 and indexed May 2028 will be held on Thursday for a total figure of up to 4,25 billion. With closed markets, the Treasury announced that 6 billion semi-annual BOTs will be offered on Friday. The German offer is also on the agenda today, with the indicative amount of 3 billion Bunds on a ten-year basis.
MPS STARTS AGAIN. PRICES IN THE 4-4,50 SCISS
The day of Monte Paschi has arrived. Consob yesterday gave the go-ahead for the readmission of the share to the Stock Exchange ten months after the failed recapitalization attempt. The market supervisory commission has also approved the exchange offer with which holders of MPS shares deriving from the burden sharing of the retail subordinated bond can receive senior debt securities. The offer will start on October 30th and, unless extended, will last until November 17th. In the event of full conversion, the Treasury's share will rise from 52,18% to 67,76%.
It will be a debut in the dark but from the indications coming from the auction on the subordinated bonds of the institute, we can deduce a valuation of the MPS shares around 4,28 euros. Analysts expect strong volatility at the opening, with prices between 4 and 4,50 euros. At 4,20 the bank's price would be around 0,45 times in line with Banco Bpm, Bper and Ubi, institutions with a marked retail vocation.
UNICREDIT ADVANCES ACCOUNTS, FINECO SUPERSTAR
Driven by the good performance of bank stocks and the quarterly reports, Piazza Affari experienced a brilliant session. The basket of Italian banks rose by 1,6%, against a much more modest +0,6% in the European sector.
The twist was ensured by Unicredit (+1,9%). To remedy an error that led to the disclosure before the time of the accounts, the bank has decided to bring forward the quarterly. The stock accelerated in the middle of the session as analysts digested the preliminary results for the third quarter.
Strong money, thanks to accounts above expectations, on Finecobank (+6,1%). The institute closed the third quarter with a net result of 47 million euros, better than analysts' estimates. Revenue climbed 11% year-on-year to €147 million, above analysts' estimates.
FCA PROFITS BOOM, CNH GOOD
Among the best quarterly results, that of Fiat Crysler stands out, +5,2% after the publication of the third quarter accounts, closed with an increase in operating profit of 17% to 1,75 billion euros, debt down to 4,4 billions and growing margins of the NAFTA area. Cnh also performed well, celebrating the strong quarterly data of its US competitor Caterpillar with +2,6%. Kepler Chevreux has raised his opinion on Exor +1,6%. The same broker sank Brembo (-5%).
THE ACCOUNTS PUSH LUXOTTICA AND ITALGAS. WAITING FOR STM
The results are also the basis of Luxottica's performance, which jumped by 4,9%. In this case, it is the quarterly report of Essilor, the group with which it has decided to merge, that ignites the enthusiasm of investors. After the accounts, Italgas also flies, up by 4,2%.
Stm is still progressing, +1,25% pending the board of directors on the accounts that will be announced tomorrow morning, 24 hours before the start of deliveries of the iPhone X, which mounts the sensor produced by the joint venture led by Carlo Bozotti.
