The great landslide of price lists, at least for now, has stopped. But the signs are disturbing. Tonight JP Morgan advised customers to stay away from the stock exchanges, invited them to exit their investment in shares, taking advantage of any rebounds to lighten or liquidate their positions.
Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of oil, thanks to the Chinese crisis, continues to roll downwards: last night in New York it even broke the threshold of 31 dollars a barrel, after having broken through that of 32 in the European afternoon. The February contract lost 6,45% to $31,02, after hitting a low of $30,91.
But the collapse of crude oil did not prevent the final rebound on Wall Street: the Dow Jones index closed up 0,32%, S&P 500 +0,09% at 1923 points, after testing 1.900 points, Nasdaq - 0,12%.
The reaction was favored by the statements of Dennis Lockart, president of the Atlanta Fed: there are still no data to justify a new rate hike in the January and March meetings. Lastly, the start of the quarterly campaign was positive. In the evening, Alcoa announced a slight increase in profits but on a turnover lower than expected. However, the forecasts for aluminum demand for 2016 are positive.
Chinese lists are more stable after Monday's collapse (-5,5%). The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 0,7% in the middle of the session, Shenzhen -1,1%. Positive ground for Hong Kong (+0,2%). The yuan was stable after the sharp intervention by the Central Bank on the interbank rate in Hong Kong, which shot up over 40%: the intervention practically dried up the offshore renmimbi market, eliminating the gap between the domestic and international quotations of the currency. Tokyo fell sharply (-2,4%), stopped yesterday for holidays.
GOOD FUTURES ON EUROPE. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
European stock exchanges will be able to take advantage of Wall Street's beneficial push this morning. Futures signal higher opening in London +29 points to 5901, Paris +31 to 4.344, Frankfurt +77 to 9902.
Yesterday Piazza Affari, like the other European lists, failed to rebound, after a timid attempt in the early afternoon. In the end there was a new negative closure with the FtseMib index at -0,5%, after having recorded a 1,2% rise in the middle of the day. The results of the other European Stock Exchanges were slightly better: Paris closed in parity, Frankfurt +0,2%, London -0,7%.
The first Treasury auction of 2016 kicks off this morning. 7 billion 12-month BOTs will be offered. Yesterday, on the gray market, the new issue traded at a positive rate of 0,07%. The Btp/Bund spread closed at 105 bps, the Btp 10 yields 1,584%.
MORGAN STANLEY: CRUDE OIL WILL DROP TO 20 DOLLARS
When will the oil drop stop? The price could fall to $20, says Morgan Stanley, if the yuan crisis continues. In addition to the fall in Chinese demand, worries about excess supply are weighing on prices. The production of US shale oil slows down (-116 wells operating in February) but more slowly than expected. Meanwhile, the return of Iranian crude oil to the market is approaching.
Meanwhile, Russian production remains at its maximum (over 10 million barrels a day), despite the damage that low prices inflict on the economy: yesterday the Moscow Stock Exchange lost more than 5%.
MPS -11% AT THE MINIMUM, CARIGE BURNS THE INCREASE
Consob has decided to temporarily ban short selling on Banca Mps starting this morning. The prohibition also applies to short selling assisted by the availability of securities. The deci 'last month. This is 11,2% of the Sienese bank's capital.
Together with Mps, Banca Carige also suffered, which suffered the worst performance on the list, slipping by 13,6% and reaching 0,89 euros. With yesterday's performance, the bank's capitalization of the institution fell to 2,7 billion euros, which means that in just six months all the positive impact of the 3 billion capital increase launched only last year was burned June 2015. Since the beginning of 2016, the institute's shares have lost 20% of their value. The drop in the quotation in the last 12 months (1,92 euros) is more than 50%.
In the evening, the institute replied: the performance of the stock is "anomalous and unjustified" and was influenced by speculative transactions unrelated to the group's operating performance.
The sinking of the two banks did not affect the performance of the rest of the sector. The rises of some popular institutions were good: Ubi +1,1% and Pop.Milano +1,6%, while Banco Popolare lost 2%.
GENERALI, FEARS ABOUT GRECO'S RELEASE. TOTONMINE IN UNDERSTANDING
UniCredit +0,1%. The bank has signed a binding agreement for the transfer of Ukrsotsbank to Alfa Group. The transaction provides for the Italian banking group to contribute Ukrsotsbank's interest to Abh Holdings (a Luxembourg-based holding company) in exchange for newly issued shares which will represent 9,9% of Abhh's capital post-transaction.
“Okay, I think. I'm amazed by the question." This is how Luca di Montezemolo, the Bank's vice president, responded at a press conference on the relationship between international shareholders and the Bank's management in the light of an article in the Financial Times on the alleged discontent of some shareholders. Montezemolo sits on the Board as an indirect representative of the interests of the first shareholder Aabar.
Understanding -1,3%. In view of the April assembly on the renewal of the organs, the comparison for the division of posts and the identification of candidates is gradually coming to life. According to the Financial Times, Fabrizio Saccomanni and Vittorio Grilli are in the running to replace Giovanni Bazoli. CorrierEconomia maintains that, as a sign of continuity, Gros-Pietro is the strongest candidate.
Difficult day for Generali (-2,8%) under pressure from rumors about the forthcoming departure of CEO Mario Greco. According to the Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung, the manager is about to move to competitor Zurich Insurance as the new managing director. According to the newspaper, three names would remain on the list: "Mario Greco, Mario Greco and Mario Greco". In short, the choice would have already been made. According to Bloomberg, on the other hand, negotiations to keep the manager are continuing in the Trieste company.
MARCHIONNE: FCA RESULTS AT THE TOP OF THE FORECAST
In Europe, one of the best sectors was the Automotive sector (Stoxx in the sector +0,5%), driven by the increase in Volkswagen (+2%). Just below par, Fiat Chrysler (-0,41%), recovering after the declarations of CEO Sergio Marchionne in Detroit where the group presents a new minivan with a hybrid variant: "2015 went well, the results are in the upper part of the range indicated by the plan”, said the CEO. With the third quarter results, FCA indicated for the year revenues of 110 billion, adjusted EBIT of 4,5 billion, adjusted net profit of 1,2 billion and net industrial debt of 6,6-7,1 billion.
However, the decline of Ferrari continues (-3,01%). In this regard, Marchionne reacted as follows: "To talk about Ferrari's reaction on the Stock Exchange when there was the spin-off and the distribution of 80% of the capital is idiotic".
SAIPEM, COLD SHOWER ON THE NORTHERN STREAM
Saipem's progress weakened during the day, closing up by 0,5% after having marked a leap of +4% thanks to the phone call between Renzi and Putin on Italy's role in the Nord Stream gas pipeline project. However, Claudio Descalzi denied any interest of the company to enter the capital of the project.
Eni lost 0,3%, limiting the damage from the continued decline in oil prices. On the other hand, Snam was up (+1%) which during the session reached a new all-time high of 5,025 euros.
LUXURY BOUNDS A NEW THUMP FOR MEDIASET
Good recovery in luxury: Ferragamo +3,2%, Moncler +1,7%. Enel rose by 0,1%: yesterday the shareholders' meeting of the subsidiary Enel Green Power (-0,28%) approved the merger between the two companies. Drastic decrease of Mediaset (-4,3%).
