Shareholders, bondholders and large account holders of Monte dei Paschi must cross their fingers and hope. The warning from Monte's two advisors, JP Morgan and Mediobanca, weighs like a sword of Damocles: they will not join the consortium guaranteeing the 5 billion euro capital increase if, in their unquestionable judgement, they do not go to successful completion of the three operations that form the pillar of the recapitalization scheduled for December, immediately after the referendum.
The three transactions to which JP Morgan and Mediobanca bind their subscription to the capital increase are: 1) the voluntary conversion for institutional and retail investors of the bank's subordinated bonds into shares; 2) participation in the increase of anchor angels, ie international funds that bet on the bank's relaunch and are therefore ready to invest significant capital; 3) the securitization of stranded credits which helps to clean MPS of the ballast that suffocates its activity.
Three very heavy conditions but without which the guarantee of the advisors will not come into effect, ie their willingness to take charge of the unopted shares during the capital increase. But without the guarantee of JP Morgan and Mediobanca, the road to the increase is all uphill and the risk of going into resolution (bail-in) becomes greater. Unless in the end the Treasury intervenes, paving the way for a sort of nationalization which, in extreme cases, the Brussels rules do not rule out.
