Pyongyang's missile has sown uncertainty on all markets. The USA, having acknowledged that the dictator Kim is now capable of launching nuclear devices as far as the coasts of Alaska, have asked for the convening of the UN security council and are pressing for common sanctions against the nuclear threat. The eve of the G20 in Hamburg, already marked by various disagreements among the big names (risk of trade wars in the lead), thus offers operators one more reason to take defensive positions in the resumption of activity on Wall Street after Independence Day , as evidenced by the rise of gold (1227 dollars an ounce) and of the yen, haven assets par excellence.
After eight upward sessions, the rise of oil stops, stable around 50 dollars pending the development of the tug of war between Qatar and the other Sunni powers. Beyond the geopolitical issues, the stock exchanges are awaiting the publication of the Fed minutes to confirm the bullish mood of US bankers.
Even Italy, at least in part, shares the climate of expectation, broken however by the relief for the evolution of the banking crisis. As confirmed by the heated parliamentary debate, not everyone agrees with the official enthusiasm for the solution adopted for the Venetian Popolari. But the epilogue of the crisis nonetheless kicked off a happy phase, after so many hardships. Yesterday, finally, the green light for Monte Paschi arrived. Meanwhile, Banca Carige, the last major crisis hotbed, has skyrocketed after the sales and the capital injection voted by the board of directors.
Meteo Borsa recorded this morning the uncertainties of the orphaned lists of the Wall Street compass.
STOP VIDEO GAMES FOR CHILDREN: TENCENT LOSES 2,1%
Little moved Asia, the region most exposed to the unknown Korean. Tokyo rises (+0,1%) conditioned by the rise of the yen. The Chinese markets did well, but even here the upward thrust is contained: Hong Kong +0,3%, Shanghai +0,2%. Seoul gains 0,2%, Mumbai 0,2%. The only significant note concerns the decline of Tencent (-2,1% in Hong Kong): under pressure from the Chinese authorities, the Internet giant has had to limit children's access to its electronic games. Too much time stolen from studying.
OIL STABLE, SAIPEM EXPLOIT
The oil market (49,64 dollars a barrel for Brent) was stable on the prices of the day before. Eni's prices are also improving in Piazza Affari (+0,53%) despite Santander cutting the target price to 15,4 euros from 17,1 euros, confirming the Hold opinion. Little move Tenaris (+0,2%).
Saipem (+3,7%) extended the strong increase of the eve. The company has announced that it has received orders for half a billion dollars: these are works to be carried out in Saudi Arabia, Angola and the Caspian Sea, all extensions of existing contracts. Mediobanca Securities confirmed the neutral rating and the target price of 4,5 euro, while Banca Akros confirmed the buy rating and the target price of 5,4 euro. Despite recent gains, Saipem -35% remains the worst blue chip since the beginning of the year.
VOLVO, GOODBYE TO THE INTERNAL ENGINE. CAR NO HURRY
Historic day for the automobile. Volvo, the Swedish group controlled by the Chinese of Geely, has announced that from 2019 it will no longer produce vehicles with the combustion engine but only hybrid or electric cars. It is the first major traditional manufacturer to imitate Tesla's example.
Meanwhile, the Italian stock market has digested the increases of the last few days. Fiat Chrysler marked the pace: +0,1% after the leap on Monday (+5,5%). Ferrari (-2,04%) and Exor (-1,02%) fall back. Cnh Industrial holds (+0,1%). Weak Brembo (-0,78%). Mid caps are also under fire: Sogefi -3,47%, Carraro -3,63%.
The exceptions are Piaggio (+2,87%), supported by data on registrations on the Italian two-wheeler market in June, and Landi Renzo (+7,38%).
BAGS IN RED, PLAZA BARGAIN IS AN EXCEPTION
Orphaned by Wall Street, the European markets traveled in mildly negative ground for the entire session. Only Piazza Affari closed, albeit slightly, on positive ground: the Ftse Mib index ended the session up +0,09%, at 21.031 points. The other markets are in red. Paris lost 0,4%, Frankfurt 0,31%. Down also Madrid (-0,45%) and London (-0,27%).
PRAET (ECB) DEFENDS QE. BTPs DROP 2,11%
Positive closure for the Italian bond market. The Italian 2,11-year rate fell to 2,14% from 164% at the previous close. The spread with the similar maturity of the Bund narrows to 166 basis points from 160 on Monday evening. Two weeks ago the risk premium narrowed to 171 basis points, the lowest since the beginning of January, and then widened to 2,20 basis points in the following days. Last week, following the words of ECB President Mario Draghi from Sintra, the rate of ten-year Italian bond had come close to 1,86%. At the beginning of the year, the yield on the ten-year BTP had fallen to XNUMX%.
Executive advisor Peter Praet, a close collaborator of Draghi, was keen to underline yesterday that the rise in inflation depends decisively on the maintenance of accommodating financial conditions. "We need patience and perseverance", underlined Praet, adding however that "the economic prospects are improving, the higher expected returns on business investment will make loan conditions increasingly attractive".
DERIVATIVES, THE COURT OF AUDITORS ASKS FOR 3,9 BILLION DAMAGE
The Court of Auditors has decided to sue four senior executives of the Treasury and Morgan Stanley for a total tax damage of 3,9 billion euros for the closure and restructuring of derivatives on public debt, reports a source close to the situation . In addition to Morgan Stanley, the current head of public debt, Maria Cannata, the director general of the Treasury, Vincenzo La Via, and former ministers Domenico Siniscalco and Vittorio Grilli will be judged.
The American bank is asked for 2,7 billion in damages, the other about 1,2 billion. Between the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, the Ministry of the Economy paid the American Bank around 3 billion as a result of an "Additional termination event" clause present in some contracts. The clause, according to the Court of Auditors, allowed the conclusion of contracts at the discretion of Morgan Stanley.
TREASURY AT 70% IN MPS UNTIL 2021, CARIGE RECORD: +23%
Historic day for the credit market. The European Commission has approved the precautionary recapitalization of Monte dei Paschi di Siena and by the end of this month the Treasury will be able to enter the capital with 5,4 billion euros, rising to around 70% of the Sienese bank. In line with the "burden-sharing principle" envisaged by EU state aid legislation.
In summary:
a) Subordinated bondholders and shareholders contributed €4,3 billion, resulting from the conversion of subordinated bonds into shares and the dilution of existing shareholders.
b) Mps has sold some assets raising private capital for half a billion euros.
c) The remaining capital, equal to 5,4 billion euros, will be provided by the State in exchange for MPS shares (purchased at a reduced price).
The State will be able to remain a shareholder until the horizon of the plan to 2021, "but nothing rules out the possibility that the exit can be brought forward", said MPS president Alessandro Falciai. Minister Padoan spoke of the plan as “an extremely important element for the Italian bank and banking system and a further turning point after the agreement reached a week ago on the Veneto banks. It is a plan that gives certainties, a sustainable time horizon to the bank which will have a very important level of capital". According to the minister, "public money will not only be recovered but will be recovered with a premium".
In the meantime, the market has rewarded Banca Carige's capital strengthening plan. The stock, which was suspended several times due to excessive bullishness, finished the day with a 23% rally. The new strategy envisages a capital increase of up to 500 million euros, with a pre-guarantee agreement with Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, and the deconsolidation of non-performing loans with further sales for 1,2 billion after the disposal of assets with a expected on assets of at least 200 million.
Equita reaffirmed its hold rating and the target price of 0,2 euro. Mediobanca Securities confirms neutral with a target price of 0,31 euro, noting that, after the solution for the two Veneto banks and the precautionary recapitalization of Mps, the Ligurian bank represents the latest critical situation in the system.
The other banks were positive: the basket increased by 1,18%. Unicredit +1%, JP Morgan has raised its recommendation to Overweight with a target price of 21 euros. The previous recommendation had been suspended. Intesa gains 0,7%, Banco Bpm +1,7%. Bper earns 2%.
THE ANTITRUST AGAINST TELECOM, A BUY FOR MONCLER
Telecom Italia (-1,76%) in the spotlight. The Antitrust has initiated proceedings against the telecommunications group for possible abuse of a dominant position in the tender for ultra-bandwidth in market failure areas. Tim replied to the authority, claiming that he had complied with the rules and saying he was certain that the correctness of the behaviors would emerge from the investigation.
Under the lens of Moncler brokers. This morning Jefferies starts coverage of the company led by CEO Remo Ruffini: the recommendation is Buy, with a target price of 24 euros, in line with the average reference price expressed by the consensus.
