Even the Dow Jones, after the S&P index, broke the record that had stood since October 2007, at the dawn of the great crisis. The Dow, +0,52%, rose to 13954 just a breath from the barrier of 14 points. S&P, +0,51%, consolidates above the 1.500 point level (1507,84) . Only the Nasdaq, 0,02%, lagged despite Apple's recovery, + 2,3%.
The session of records coincides with the beginning of the first meeting of 2013 of the FOMC, the monetary committee of the Fed which will include, among others, the leader of the doves Charles Evans. There is great expectation for tonight's release: the economic data, which is showing a slight recovery, could lead to a slowdown in the expansionary policy. But the optimism of the markets suggests that Wall Street doesn't believe it.
On the currency front, meanwhile, the euro/dollar exchange rate was stable at 1,346, while the common currency lost ground against the Swiss franc, which fell to 1,2418, and against the pound to 0,853.
In this context, today the Italian Treasury will offer 6,5 billion BTPs at 5 and 10 years at auction, before asking for three-day auctions tomorrow with 9,775 billion BOTs. After yesterday's successful auction of 6-month Treasuries, a further decline in yields is almost certain. On the Stock Exchange, the Monte Paschi case, +2,2%, hot on the judicial level and hot on the political one afterwards the hearing of Minister Vittorio Grilli in the House, it seems to be on its way to normal: the market tends to trust the Perfume-Purple therapy.
ASIA
Wall Street's optimism found an immediate echo in Asia. The Tokyo Stock Exchange rises by 2,2% to the levels reached in August 2010. Hong Kong (+0,8%), Seoul (+0,5%) and Taiwan (+9,7%) are also on the rise. Shanghai almost unchanged on the eve of the Chinese New Year holidays: the price list has recovered more than 20% since 20 December.
AMERICA
Standing out among yesterday's quarterly reports was Amazon, announced on a closed stock exchange. Turnover is declining but, on the contrary, margins and profits are on the rise. An enigma that can be explained by the drop in sales of "physical" books -5% and the strong expansion of eBooks, which have jumped beyond the threshold of one billion sales (+70%). Wall Street appreciates: in the after hours the stock rose by 8%. Pharma giants Pfizer and Eli Lilly both up by more than 3% after good results. Ford falls, down 5%: the accounts are good in America, but the problem is Europe where the House of Fiesta will lose over 2 billion dollars this year.
EUROPA
Positive day for the European Stock Exchanges. London gained 0,7%, Paris +0,1%, Frankfurt +0,2%. The day saw the rise of crude oil (Brent at 114,2 dollars, +0,6%) and oil stocks. Total gained 1,8%, BP +1,6%. With oil (Stoxx in the sector +0,9%), utilities rose in Europe: the two German giants, E.On and Rwe, gained respectively 1,7% and 1,6%. However, the most relevant notes concern the advance of the euro and the very strong recovery in the value of the sovereign debt of Southern Europe.
EVERYTHING OK FOR THE BOTS, TODAY IT'S THE BTP'S TURN
After the success of the BOT auction, which saw the Treasury place 8,5 billion six-month bonds at a yield of 0,73%, the lowest since March 2010, the BTP yield fell to 4,16% with spread at 247 (-3 basis points). Today it's the turn of the usual end-of-month Btp auction. But the rally in Italian stocks is not an isolated fact.
Greece's 9,93-year yield (10%) managed to "break through" the important psychological threshold of 2010% for the first time since October 30. In July it stood at 2%. Conversely, the yield on the 0,28-year German Bund rose, +0,08%, to its highest since March. It was negative 2% in mid-December. Only Switzerland's 0,08-year bond still has a negative yield, -2011%, the highest yield since November 0,60. It was -0,4% in August. The Danish one jumped from -0,5% in July to +XNUMX%.
MPS ADVANCES, SAIPEM LANDSLIDE. TODAY IS FIAT DAY
Fiat falls, -0,8%, on the eve of the 2012 accounts and this morning's inauguration of the Grugliasco plant where the Maserati Quattro Porte will be produced. Fiat will end 2012 with a net profit of 1,3 billion euros, higher than the company's indications of 1,2 billion. This is the forecast of 23 analysts whose estimates form the consensus. 2011 had closed with a net profit of approximately 1,7 billion. Consensus indicates a result for ordinary operations of slightly above 3,8 billion, in line with the company's target, thanks to Chrysler which should contribute, according to analysts, with 3,29 billion. Net debt is expected at 6,6 billion, higher than the target (6,5 billion).
In Milan, the FtseMib index closed unchanged, weakened by profit-taking on bank stocks. Saipem fell, -3,5%, worst blue chip in Piazza Affari, the subject of a placement of shares (over 2% of the capital) by an institutional investor. Following an in-depth review of contracts and prospects, Saipem today announced revised forecasts for 2012 earnings and 2013 revenues and profits. In detail, regarding last year, “due to negotiations on contractual changes in the E&C business that is expected to close with lower than expected results” an Ebit of around 1,5 billion euro is expected (-6% compared to previous indications) and a net profit of approximately 900 million. For 2013, an 80% reduction in EBIT is expected in the Onshore Engineering & Construction sector and 70% in the Offshore sector.
Saipem's problems also held back Eni +0,5%, less brilliant than the other European oil companies. In Milan, the increase of A2A continued, +4,3%. Within this sector, Enel +1,3% and Iren +4% should also be noted. Among the banks, MontePaschi closed up by 2,2%, Intesa unchanged, Banco Popolare lost 0,1%, Ubi -0,5%.
Positive day for Unicredit, +0,8%, after the promotion of Goldman Sachs. “Overall the year got off to a satisfactory start, on the organizational front both abroad and in Italy, so the new bank is fully operational. Again on the operating front, the month (January, ed) is slightly better than expected in terms of volumes and business. In 2013 we started off on the right foot”. This was announced by Federico Ghizzoni, CEO of UniCredit, during a press conference in which the accelerated placement of 9,1% of the capital of Bank Pekao and the focus of the banking group's activities in the Baltic countries was announced.
“We have an unclosed overdraft of only 600 million out of over 900 billion in assets, practically irrelevant. We made them for commercial activities on customers. Basically we have an extremely limited risk”, continued Ghizzoni on the Bank's situation with respect to derivatives. "Starting in 2011, we have already carried out a series of operational checks on the group's processes, long before the MPS case broke out - underlined Ghizzoni - we feel calm about UniCredit's position".
Among the insurance companies, Generali fell by 0,9%, Unipol -0,4%, Fondiaria Sai -0,6%. Among industrial stocks, Fiat fell by 0,8%, on the eve of the 2012 accounts and the inauguration of the Grugliasco plant. Fiat Industrial-1,9%. Finmeccanica closed unchanged, but Ansaldo was positive +1,4% which in the morning scored new highs for the period on rumors of a GE offer. Telecom Italia rose by 0,7%. Positive Mediaset +2,1%, again above 2 euros after Exane raised the target price to 2,1 euros. Cement manufacturers are down: Buzzi -1,1%.
Among the small caps, the case of Seat Pagine Gialle stands out, collapsing by 41% after the announcement that it will not pay the coupon on the senior secured bonds maturing on January 31, for a total amount of 42,2 million euros. Seat is therefore in default.
