The offer of Mps on Mediobanca can change the balance of Italian finance. The institute wanted by Enrico Cuccia and which has been at the centre of the main Italian industrial reorganisations from Fiat to Montedison passing through Generali and the banks that were once public and have now become private and independent Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit, would come under de facto control di two entrepreneurial families already shareholders of Mediobanca: Caltagirone , Dolphin by Del Vecchio.
At Piazza Affari Ps at mid-session it was quoted at 6,59 euros, down 5,51%, while Mediobanca rises by 6,21% to 16,24 euros.
Here are the analysts' comments:
Intermonte: “The offer was not expected and opens up new scenarios in banking consolidation in Italy”. This is what Intermonte said in a report on the total takeover bid announced this morning by Monte dei Paschi on Mediobanca. “We estimate that including the synergies indicated and the effect of the DTAs, post-deal the impact on earnings per share (eps) would be in high single digit growth” or a percentage in the upper part of the range from 1 to 9.
EquityIn our opinion, the operation raises several doubts. Il prize recognized results modest, also considering the probable reduction of the speculative appeal on the Monte dei Paschi stock. We believe difficult to identify synergies, while the risk of potential dissynergies emerges. Furthermore, we foresee difficulties in maintaining and bringing in new professionals within the resulting group, with the risk of diluting Mediobanca's distinctive specificities.
Kbw: “We believe that the potential synergy be limited, even including the acceleration of the use of DTAs for Monte dei Paschi, and with Monte dei Paschi trading at a lower P/E than Mediobanca, our first impression is that this offer has limited chances of success".
David Pascucci, analyst at XTB: it is "yet another banking risk operation that involves only one thing, risk sharing. The banking sector is still strong due to its excellent stock market performance and relatively high interest rates in Europe, this factor is driving the mergers and acquisitions market which in fact fuels the systemic risk of the banking sector Italian. On the other hand, this also leads to greater solidity of the sector on the markets when it comes to stock market performance”.
Fabio Caldato, portfolio manager of the AcomeA Global Dynamic Strategy fund: “The offer from Mps does not surprise us entirely for the following reasons: the Siena management had repeatedly reiterated the large financial availability now consolidated and the role not necessarily of prey; the non-random massive presence of the same shareholders between Mps, Mediobanca and Generali; Mediobanca, in the current Italian banking context, is a top bank, but of modest size”. Added to this, says the manager, “the decisive valuation on the 13% of General shares held by Mediobanca itself, which would arrive as a dowry. In the background, certifying the maximum dynamism of these days, the maxi operation between the subsidiary of Generali and Natixis. The Mps-Mediobanca merger would create a banking giant of various excellences (commercial banking, private banking, investment banking) and would strengthen the influences in Trieste”.
James Calef, country head Italy of Ns Partners: the Ops represents a “further piece in the dynamic panorama of mergers and acquisitions in the Italian banking sector”. This ferment is partly driven by the need for banks to “increase their size to achieve operational synergies and strengthen their competitive position”. In a context characterized by the reduction of interest rates, which compresses traditional interest margins, “the diversification of business lines becomes crucial”, says Calef in particular, “wealth management and asset management emerge as highly profitable sectors, attracting the interest of many institutions”. It is foreseeable at this point “that in the future we will witness operations or new agreements which will also involve insurance players, given their high profitability and potential synergies with the banking sector". Furthermore, recent operations have mainly involved large institutions, but it is now likely "that even the medium-sized banks they will not remain spectators for long, looking for opportunities to bridge the gap with the major banking groups,” Calef concludes.
