Italian banks are the main customers of the ECB's loan desk. Out of the 489 billion disbursed by the Frankfurt institute, according to a report by Morgan Stanley, 50 were requested by the banks of the Peninsula which have thus already set aside a good 90% of their "funding" needs for the current year. In particular, Unicredit requested 12,5 billion, slightly less than Intesa (12 billion). But, proportionally, the institution that has made the most substantial funding is Banca MPS: 10 billion in full.
It is not difficult to understand the reasons for this strategy, already launched before the appointment of the new general manager Fabrizio Viola who today is engaged in the first trial by fire on a hot seat: the illustration to the Board of Directors of the plan to avoid resorting to the increase of capital, otherwise raising the major capital requested by the EBA.
An appointment awaited with great curiosity by the market which, on the day of the great euphoria for the banks, limits the increase in the share to just over 1%: music if one thinks of the landslide of the last few months in which the spring capital increase in which the residual wealth of the Foundation accumulated over the centuries was burned. Very little if one thinks of the +13% of Unicredit or the +7% of Banco Popolare, which will probably avoid recourse to the capital increase, a much more impervious obstacle seen from Siena.
According to the Authority led by Andrea Enria, the Tuscan bank accuses a deficit, compared to the core tier 1 deemed necessary for systemic institutions, of 3,3 billion. Therefore, by tomorrow morning, the new general manager and the outgoing president, Giuseppe Mussari, will have to explain to the Bank of Italy how to rake in this figure by June. They will find attentive but understanding ears waiting for them: the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco, in the recent meeting with the top management of the banks, made it clear that, between now and the beginning of the summer, many things could change.
In fact, the capital requests were calculated on the basis of the "gap" at the end of September, when the value of the government bonds in the portfolio (Siena is among the most exposed in terms of Btp and Cct) had now crossed the critical threshold. In June, on the other hand, the "buffer" imposed by the EBA could be less burdensome: once the spring auctions have passed and the EFSF fund has been activated, the value of the securities in the portfolio could go up again. And not by a little. Moreover, as Mario Draghi underlined, the EBA made a serious mistake by proceeding with the execution of the tests without taking into account the postponement of the take-off of the capital increase available to the Salva Stati fund, unlike what they did in 2009 the United States (first the Tarp, then the increases in the banks, moreover favored by the intervention of the Treasury).
In summary, it's about resisting. But, faced with a situation of objective fragility that has been dragging on since the time of the acquisition of Banca Antonveneta at reckless prices, the Sienese banking group cannot limit itself to facade interventions. The problem is simple, but serious. The bank today capitalizes around 2,5 billion, or 800 million less than the fresh funds it has to prove it can raise. No need to knock on current members. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, today vice president (awaiting confirmation after the conviction in the first instance for the Bnl takeover) will play his part, but no more.
The Mps Foundation, with a share of just under 50% (all guaranteed by the banking system, with Mediobanca and Crédit Suisse in the lead) is forced to sell a substantial portion of its package, around 17%. To who? According to the Financial Times, in the end it will be necessary to resort to the CDP or to some shareholders (see Foundations) adhering to the Cassa del Tesoro, to avoid, at least officially, the rationalization of the Bank. In Siena, awaiting the press release that will be released in the evening from Rocca Salimbeni, the hypothesis is not commented on.
According to the analysts of Banca Akros "a private placement of 1-1,5 billion euro with the CDP would still be a credible alternative" to resolve the issue of capital. In addition, of course, to the conversion of freshes (structured products convertible into equity) and the sale of real estate assets and various equity investments, from the share in Cdp (possible buyers Fondazione Crt and/or Cariplo) rather than the Sansedoni real estate or shares in other companies .
