Mps, the future will be neither stand alone nor Alibanca

Before the hostility of the Five Stars, determined to defend their influence on Mount Paschi in public version. Then the perplexities of the large international partners who landed in force Unicredit at the call of Jean-Pierre Mustier, the banker who was able to raise 13 billion for an institution that was undercapitalized at the time.

In short, there are many protagonists of one of the big financial games of the new year who believe, for opposite reasons, that the marriage between Monte Paschi and Unicredit, supported by the Treasury and the ECB and appreciated by the president Patrizia Grieco, will not be done, "neither now nor ever". As indeed the unions, frightened by the prospect of redundancies and most of the local politicians, are asking for, not at all repentant for the suicidal attitudes that have accompanied the negative parable of the oldest bank on the planet.

An obstacle that should probably be overcome in the end, but which will affect the near future of Italian banking system, already grappling with the long wave of insolvencies in the coming months which will make mergers, acquisitions and other system operations more urgent. But the first stop on the grand tour will necessarily have to be Siena, even if the piloted operation that the Treasury has been preparing for at least six months, according to the latest rumours, risks being postponed.

He has very little chance of succeeding in the plan.”stand alone” developed by CEO Guido Bastianini: an injection of capital from the Treasury for 2,5 billion, which could be followed by a merger of the poor with Banca Carige and with Banca Popolare di Bari, i.e. the so-called Alibanca to be inspired by the ruinous experience of Alitalia, which sucks money from taxpayers with no real hope of recovery. In fact, a halt has come from Frankfurt: the money from the new increase will not be able to come from the Treasury, today a 64% shareholder.

In the meantime, the trap that i Five stars they had devised with the Budget law. In fact, the ceiling at 500 million of the tax benefits provided for the purchase of the bank advocated by the Movement. Anyone who buys Mps in 2021 will thus be entitled to two billion euros in tax assets, provided they transform them into capital as envisaged by the Mediobanca advisor.

It seemed done: recapitalization and simultaneous sale to Unicredit, with which the Treasury has been dealing since July. The ministry itself could go at that point, after 20 January, to negotiate "politically" with theEuropean antitrust yet another strengthening of the institute in view of the sale. But here comes the new complication: the search for a successor to Mustier in Unicredit has proved more difficult than expected also because the markets have seen, behind the rejection of the project to list the bank's international shareholdings as an alternative to the purchase of Mps, a concentration of risks in Italy and an increased danger of public interference.

Whether these fears are true or false, the list of possible successors to Mustier soon dwindled. They said no Corrado Passera, Matthew Del Fante, Marco Morelli, the latest renunciation came from Alexander Foti.

Meanwhile, some strong partners such as Blackrock e Capital Research, with stakes of around 5% each, expressed their doubts about the plan developed by Mediobanca, judged too optimistic, to the president in pectore Pier Carlo Padoan, former minister of the Economy. In short, there is no successor to Mustier capable of piloting the assembly towards the merger of Unicredit with Mps. Unless you try the same Albert Nagel, the number one in Piazzetta Cuccia who could take the opportunity to end the cohabitation with Leonardo Del Vecchio.

In the last few hours, "Il Messaggero" has hypothesized that to pave the way for the merger between Mps and Unicredit, the Sienese bank could create a spin-off of the Tuscan branches in order to maintain a strong link with the region and on the basis of this suggestion, the cob runs on the stock exchange