On the eve of yet another high-voltage weekend, the stock exchanges enjoy once again contradicting the forecasts of the experts. In fact, who would have said that the best performance of the price lists, 48 hours after the referendum, would have been that of Piazza Affari? But everything is possible in a financial season full of news after the long hibernation interrupted by the election of Donald Trump.
The energy, oil and petroleum markets are in great turmoil, after the agreement within Opec which, Reuters reveals, bears the imprint of Vladimir Putin: it was Russia, a great player in the Middle Eastern game, who mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And Europe will only be able to take note of the new geopolitical balances.
Meanwhile, the earthquake on the markets triggered by Trumpeconomics continues. The clearest sign is the formidable rise in US 18-year yields, which yesterday reached a new 2,492-month high of 1.700%; bonds, bunds and BTPs have left over 600 billion in value on the ground, in part (175 billion) which ended up fleshing out the prices of the "old" Wall Street while the champions of the digital economy suffer, who pay for the prospect of lower profits from abroad, given the revaluation of the dollar. Everything is ready for a robust rise in official rates. But the Fed is waiting for the latest data to decide: the new jobs that will be announced this afternoon. The expectation is for XNUMX new jobs.
There will be time, after December 4, to evaluate the impact of the new macro scenario that recalls, amplified, the first Reagan: Donald Trump promises to cut corporate taxes to 15% and, in the meantime, has already used the hard way to prevent the move of a company, Carrier, from Indiana to Mexico. The flight of Caterpillar, Wall Street's best stock in November, shows that the market believes in the investment promises of the new president. Good news for those living on the US market (Fiat Chrysler best stock in November at Piazza Affari) disturbing for BTPs and the shares of the most indebted companies. But before dedicating itself to this scenario, Piazza Affari is preparing to experience the ten days that can change the small world of Italian banks: from December 4, crucial for the Monte Pachi increase, to the announcement of the Unicredit capital operation, scheduled for December 13, Santa Lucia.
HOLDING DOWN ASIA, TECHNOLOGISTS IN FALL
Mixed end of the week in Asia, awaiting US jobs data. Tokyo is about to end the session with a modest drop (-0,1%) after setting a new all-time record on Thursday. Shanghai (-0,5%) and Hong Kong (-0,3%) also fell, but in both cases the eighth's balance was positive. The Seoul Stock Exchange is weak: the opposition announced this morning that it will ask for the impeachment of President Park Geun Hie in the parliamentary session scheduled for December 9th.
Different trends for New York stocks: the Dow Jones index is up (+0,36%) on the wave of energy stocks and finance; weak S&P 500 (-0,35%). The Nasdaq fell sharply (-1,36%).
The drop in the Time Square market is linked to the decline in technology: Facebook dropped 2,8%, Microsoft - 1,8%. Intel lost 2,7%, the worst stock in the blue chip basket. Since the day of Trump's victory, the technology sector has lost about 3% against a growth of about 2% in the other indices. It is a consequence, the analysts explain, of the rise in interest rates: faced with an upward trend in the cost of money, the market tends to reduce the value of growth stocks characterized by a high price/earnings ratio, such as Apple itself ( -0,9%) or Alphabet (-1,5%).
The opposite is true for financial stocks (+1,7% the sector index, the largest increase in the last three weeks) favored by the return of more attractive profit margins. The star of the day was Goldman Sachs (+3,3%), also in the wake of Trump's decision to appoint Stephen Mnuchin (ex GS) to the Treasury. 91% of operators are convinced that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting on 13/14 December.
OIL: +16,5% IN TWO DAYS. ENI + 3.5%
The rise in oil continues: +16,5% since the announcement of the OPEC agreement on Wednesday. This morning Brent traded slightly below at 54 dollars, Wti above 50 dollars. For most analysts, however, the agreement will not be sufficient to significantly change the market trend, given the unknown factor represented by the US offer. The price should continue to fluctuate between 50 and 60 dollars. Big Oils are advancing on Wall Street. Chevron +4% (after +9% on Wednesday). Eni rose +3,5% in Milan, the oil stock preferred by Equita Sim. The company expects to increase 2017 production by 4%. Saipem +3% and Tenaris +4,1%.
THE ECB: THERE WILL BE THE EXTENSION OF QE
The European Central Bank, anticipates Reuters, will extend the quantitative easing beyond March 2017 and will announce it on 8 December. The anticipation comes from "qualified sources with direct knowledge of the debate", according to which even some of the most skeptical within the Board now consider the extension of the asset purchase plan beyond March inevitable, given the underlying weakness of inflation and the heightened political risks. However, the modalities are still being discussed: the most probable solution is the extension of the Qe until May, keeping the pace of purchases constant at the current rate, i.e. 80 billion a month.
MILAN AT THE TOP IN EUROPE
Piazza Affari is confirmed for the second day in a row at the top of the European Stock Exchanges. Ftse Mib closed the session with +0,99% at 17 points: the shield promised by the ECB is working in the event of strong post-referendum instability. The other lists of the Old Continent are down: the Eurofirst index drops by 098%. The Italian economy could end 0,7 with growth marginally better than the 2016% indicated by the government in the latest update to the Economic and Financial Document. Istat confirmed a 0,8% increase in GDP in the third quarter, but the upward revision to 0,3% of the data for the April-June period brought the GDP acquired in 0,1 to 0,9% The trend figure for the third quarter has also been revised upwards, to +2016% from a preliminary 1%.
Negative closure but above the lows for the debt market. The Btp-Bund spread widened to a high for the day of 174 basis points (after having dropped to 167 at the opening), only to then quickly return to below 170 at the end of the day. The Italian 2-year rate still remains above 2,07 at the end. %, after an intraday high of 50%. The 2067-year BTP in March 1,7 yielded around 3,46 points at the close, with a yield of 45%, returning to Monday's levels. The Italy-Spain spread ended the session at XNUMX basis points, unchanged, about ten cents below the peak at the end of November.
BANKS, BPER-CREVAL IS APPROACHING
A no victory will make it more difficult for banks to raise capital on the market, said Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan. Regardless of this threat, bank shares continued to recover: the Stoxx index for the sector rose by 2,6% against +0,9% for the European basket. The rises of Bper (+8%) and Credito Valtellinese (+6%) stand out: yesterday the CEO of the Lombard bank effectively re-launched the bets on a merger between the two institutions. Unicredit rose by 2,9%, Intesa +2,1%, Banco Popolare +3%.
MPS, THIS IS BETWEEN ROME AND BRUSSELS
MontePaschi goes against the trend, falling by 3,7% after the run of the last two sessions. As regards the conversion of subordinated bonds, the size of subscriptions will be known between tonight and Saturday and an official communication over the weekend is not excluded. The board of directors is in any case pre-alert for the next Monday and Tuesday.
This morning Corriere della Sera writes that negotiations are currently underway between the Ministry of the Economy and the European Union regarding the capital increase of over five billion euros necessary to secure the bank based in Siena. The European institutions must decide whether the Italian State, already a shareholder with 4% of Monte Paschi, has the possibility of intervening in the event the collection of fresh resources is not successful. But it seems that the possibility that the Treasury can subscribe its quota of new shares without the hypothesis of state aid is also to be clarified.
In the meantime, a pre-agreement with the Attestor Capital fund seems to have been reached, while contacts with two-three other investors (including George Soros, whom we apparently met in the last few hours) are said to be proceeding at a rapid pace. There is also some confidence in the possibility of reaching a pre-agreement with the Qatari fund (Qia, Qatar Investment Authority) by next Monday for an investment worth over one billion euros.
Meanwhile, Mps has renewed with Axa until 2027 the strategic partnership signed in March 2007 in life and non-life bancassurance and in supplementary pensions.
Purchases on Generali (+3,5%).
FCA SALES GROW, FERRARI BROKEN BY CHINESE TAXES
Fiat Chrysler still on the rise (+0,62%), after the recovery in November (+9%). In the course of the last month there should have been a drop in the US market but the data arriving from Italy remain positive: +8,2% sales in the sector in November. For the FCA group there is an increase of approximately 10,8% in sales to 41.577 (including Maserati) with a share of 28,5%. Since the beginning of the year, the Bel Paese market has risen by 16,51% to almost 1,7 million with the FCA group registering +18,7% to 491.200 and a share of 28,9% (+0,5%). Ferrari dropped 0,6% after news of an extra tax on luxury cars arrived from China.
SNAM, SKIP THE LANDING IN GREECE. DELISTING RISK FOR PREMUDA
Snam loses 3,6% after yesterday's +4%. Greece has declared that talks have been interrupted for the sale of 66% of the gas pipeline operator Desfa to the Azeri Socar, which could have also involved Snam.
Among the small caps, Premuda loses about 3%: the results of 2016 and 2017 will have a "strongly negative sign". The delisting of the security is not excluded as part of the capital operations that will become necessary to eliminate the losses.
Double-digit leaps instead for Landi Renzo (+14,9%) and Stefanel (+10,5%). Italia Independent rose 12% to 3,40 euros. From the all-time low of 2,72 euros on the day of the arrest of Lapo Elkann, president and co-founder of the group, the stock has rebounded by 22%.
