For the Italian banking riskOr maybe the summer holidays are already over. Or maybe they never started. The date to mark in red is Thursday September 10, the day on which the assembly of Intesa Sanpaolo will meet to approve the capital increase to service the €30,6 billion public purchase and exchange offer launched last June. By the same date, MPS CEO Louis Lovaglio He will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat and present his quarrelsome advisors with one or more credible alternatives to a takeover bid that is objectively difficult to resist. Then, if he manages to get them to agree, which is easier said than done, he will have to go through the ordeal ofshareholders' meetingSo, one "miracle" isn't enough; two are needed. But history shows that Lovaglio isn't a man who gives up easily, and—after his surprise return to the helm of the Siena bank from which he'd been ousted just days earlier—he's never to be underestimated. So much so that while everyone in Siena continues to talk about the Palio, Rocca Salimbeni is reportedly experiencing a frenetic pace. And the construction of the long-awaited alternatives is reportedly underway.
Secondo the Sun 24 Hours, the number one of Monte is in fact thinking about the launch of not one but two ops. The first on Bpm bank which, with the idea of a marriage between equals having definitively faded, would once again play the role of prey in the banking game of risk after Unicredit's failed bid. The second would instead be on General Bank, the same bank that Mediobanca had in turn tried to conquer just over a year ago to resist MPS's offer. History repeats itself.
MPS: Lovaglio's moves to resist Intesa, board meeting Thursday
He is summoned for tomorrow, Thursday 20 August, the board of directors of the Sienese bank During this meeting, the banker could present the dual transaction to the councilors. A meeting is scheduled in Rome for the same time between Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, Siena Mayor Nicoletta Fabi, Tuscany Regional President Eugenio Giani, and Siena Provincial President Agnese Carletti. This meeting has long been requested by local authorities, following Prime Minister Meloni's recent expressed hope that the bank would not be broken up.
But let's get back to finance. The Sun underlines that, what Rocca Salimbeni could take, would be "very risky choices”, which among other things would arrive “on the eve of the decision of the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office on the MPS-Mediobanca investigation." These decisions would not only have to overcome the obstacles imposed by the passivity rule to which MPS has been subject since the announcement of the Intesa Sanpaolo takeover bid, but would also have to address external obstacles. Regarding Banco BPM, for example, there is a gigantic one. Namely Crédit Agricole, the largest shareholder of Piazza Meda with a stake of nearly 30%, who has already expressed his opposition to the marriage.
The role of Generali
In this double match also comes into play Generali. In turn in a dual role: The Lion holds a controlling stake equal to the 50,17% of the capital of Banca Generali, while 13,2% of the insurance company is held by MPS through Mediobanca. Lovaglio would consider this share a "wild card", to be "given in whole or in part" on which "French finance could intervene", writes the newspaper on Via Monte Rosa. However, it is difficult to imagine, especially after the barricades over the Natixis operation, that the government will allow foreign players to put their hands on the savings of Italians, to use the same terms used then between Palazzo Chigi and Via XX Settembre. And this is why many are turning their gaze towards the office of Andrea Orcell in Piazza Gae Aulenti, which already holds about 10% of Generali. Even in this case, however, the road is uphill, considering the sums at stake and UniCredit's commitment to Commerzbank in Germany.
The reaction of the stock market and the doubts of the analysts
Meanwhile, at Piazza Affari the reaction of investors is cautious, with Ps and Understanding which remain substantially aligned with the terms of the takeover bid. The Sienese bank's stock falls 0,37%, while the shares General Bank they earn almost 2% and those Bpm bank rise by 0,6%. Stable (-0,1%) Understanding, with CEO Carlo Messina waiting to see what his rival's moves will be.
Analysts are skeptical. “In our opinion, the strategic alternatives hypothesized present a level of complexity and risk of execution significantly higher than Intesa's offer", commented Equita analysts. In particular, MPS "would find itself having to manage the completion of the integration of Mediobanca and further large-scale operations, significantly increasing execution risk compared to that associated with Intesa's offer”, even more so given that “the success of the operations would be subordinated to the involvement and consensus of key stakeholders, including Crédit Agricole, Generali and the significant shareholders of MPS, as well as obtaining multiple regulatory authorizations and overcoming the constraints deriving from the passivity rule”.
The “financial rationale of the operations”, the experts continue, would also require “the achievement of particularly ambitious synergies to support value creation”, while the hypothesis of a combination with Banca Generali “closely recalls the Mediobanca-Banca Generali proposal of 2025, raising questions about the willingness of the main stakeholders to endorse a structure that had not obtained the necessary support from the Mediobanca shareholders' meeting just over a year ago”. Especially since, as underlined by Intermonte, “recently the CEO of Intesa, Carlo Messina, had declared that both Delfin and Caltagirone they viewed Ca' de Sass's offer positively.
