It will be understood in the next few hours whether the capital increase of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena will be able to start on schedule, i.e. on Monday 17 October, as they are convinced in Rome and Siena, or if it will be necessary to think about a plan B and a further postponement, in any case by the final date of the 12th November. But the market smells the white smoke as evidenced by the strong leap of the share on the stock exchange which today gained 10%.
The negotiation for the operation on the 2,5 billion capital of the earthquake-stricken Sienese bank, the seventh in 15 years, is complex and many players and a lot of money are involved but something finally seems to be moving.
Yesterday afternoon the Cda – in a meeting Fiume was unable to proceed, as expected, with the definition of the price of the new shares and the inclusion of the necessary additions to the prospectus, in view of the final approval by the Consob – expected this week, probably as early as tomorrow – since the signatures and commitments to underwrite a share of the increase by some private investors have not arrived. The deal continues today. From Siena, some financial sources told Firstonline that "there is moderate confidence that the negotiations can be concluded positively in the next few hours" after the new meeting of the board of directors." Anima and Axa are oriented towards joining the 2,5 billion capital increase, of which 1,6 to be paid by Treasury shares, and the banks in the consortium seem willing to take charge of the unopted shares. On the other hand, the intervention of the consortium represents the indispensable safety net for the success of the operation, in a market situation that is certainly not easy. Rocca Salimbeni and the Treasury are confident that the pre-subscription agreement already signed in June will prevail.
In the operation the Treasury, 64% shareholder about of the bank, is the main actor, required to engage with 1,6 billion, while the so-called unopted - the portion of unsubscribed shares remaining on the market after the transaction is equal to 900 million.
Eight banks in the consortium guarantees that could participate for around 400-500 million: Banco Santander, Barclays Bank Ireland, Société Générale and Sitfel Europe Bank, as joint bookrunners, joining BofA Securities Europe, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and Mediobanca joining the consortium the capital increase. In the last few hours, according to some sources, the consortium also risked breaking up, with the departure of one of the component banks, a scenario that would force the reconstruction of the entire pool with unpredictable results. Thus the CEO Luigi Lovaglio is working to mend the tears and find a solution.
Who else will participate in the capital increase?
Of those 900 million, a part - about 100-150 million - has already ensured that it will disburse them Axa, Mps's insurance partner, with a sub-assignment commitment to be included in the prospectus. Some could play their part Foundations, above all from Tuscany: on the table there is a maximum commitment of around 30 million euros, 10 of which have already been approved by the CR Florence Foundation. Also waiting DearLucca with the contribution of 8 million. Perhaps the decision of the Savings Bank Foundation of Pistoia and Pescia, which at first had ruled out intervening, but is now evaluating a contribution that should in any case stop at 3 million. In addition, a contribution is also expected from Social security funds such as Enpam and Cassa Forense, and Inarcassa, with which the Mef would have established some contacts.
Anima Holding could minimize its participation
But this is still too small an amount for the banks in the consortium.
The attention is also for the other partner of Mps, Soul Holding, but the speech seems even more complex: on the one hand it would require a review of distribution agreements (on guarantees, extensions and commissions) with the aspiration to remain the leading independent asset management company in Italy, on the other hand it could invest for a limited amount.
These days the Treasury has put in place a new project for Anima that could square the circle: Poste Italiane (controlled by the State through CDP with 35% and MEF with 29,3%) could increase its current share in Soul, a sort of operational golden power, which would moreover defend the company from a potential foreign offer. Initially Anima had said that he could participate for an amount between 100 and 200 million. This morning, however, financial sources quoted by Ansa say that Anima Holding would be willing to convene a Board of Directors to deliberate its intervention in the recapitalization, for only 25 million.
Other banks are being watched carefully. This morning the CEO of Unipol, Carlo Cimbri, on the sidelines of a conference, responding to journalists who asked him if Unipol had been contacted by the Treasury for the recapitalization of MPS, said: "No contact from the Treasury for a participation in the capital increase of MPS".
According to rumors, a share could come from the French entrepreneur Denis Dumont, a former shareholder of Creval, whose participation in the operation is almost certain. Late stage contacts would also be ongoing with Algebris, Pimco and Amundi and with managers who have large amounts of subordinated bonds in their portfolios.
There is also an emergency plan B in the ECB drawer
In recent days some market sources have also spoken of the existence of a Burden sharing already in the drawer of the ECB as plan B in case of failure of the main plan. In other words, bondholers would be involved in the capital, with all the foreseeable consequences, says the newspaper. The Treasury is apparently thinking of a consortium of MPS-saving system in which the anchor investors contacted by Lovaglio could be present, therefore Anima and Axa, but also the big banks and the big insurance companies: "Intesa, UniCredit, BPM, Bper, Agricole Italia with a request for 300 million. Generali and Unipol insurance companies for a total of 100 million.
This week is the European Commission also intervened which launched a document in which it specifies in 22 points some key passages of the Sienese situation with the revision of the commitments presented by Italy and approved by Brussels.
The 15-year history of cash injections
In the last 15 years, the Sienese bank has strengthened its assets by 5 billion euros in 2008, in 2009 another 1 billion subscribed by the State through Tremonti Bond. Again, in 2011, another 2,15 billion euros, in 2013 there were instead 4 billion subscribed by the State (the Bond Mountains). In 2014 it was another 5 billion, in 2015 3 billion, in 2017 8,3 billion of which 5,4 billion paid by the State as a precautionary recapitalization and the remaining 2,9 billion as a conversion of subordinated loans.
