Once again this morning Montepaschi's fireworks light up the electronic sky of Piazza Affari, otherwise quite opaque. At midday, the Sienese bank's share rose by 20,52%. 2,666 euro, ending up in a volatility auction for the second time. In the meantime, the rights to the maxi-capital increase of 5 billion euros are up by 0,11%, to 18,31 euros. At these prices, by buying 5 rights, 214 new shares can be subscribed at 1,4278 euros each, with a discount of more than 35% compared to the current share price.
This consideration is enough to make us predict that the great volatility of the share, the effect of a highly dilutive capital operation, is destined to continue further. For heaven's sake, as CEO Fabrizio Viola wanted to underline, the announced anomaly "is not pandemonium", but a sort of necessary evil, in the absence of correction of the rules that have been talked about for a long time, as he pointed out on "La Voce.info" Professor Andrea Resti.
Consob itself dedicated a notebook to the subject in 2010 in which it suggested various corrective measures, including that of envisaging that the exercise of the option rights is immediately followed (with settlement within a few days) by the delivery of the newly issued shares, without having to wait for the end of the offer period. Modern clearing and settlement systems make the solution possible, which among other things would allow the issuer to immediately get hold of the fresh financial means required by the market. But, despite the precedents of Fonsai and Unpol (year 2012) or the more remote ones of Tiscali (2009) and Seat (2010), the thrilling fluctuations caused by the use of derivative contracts, primarily call operations, have been repeated.
Stop the controversy, though. The strong growth in trading on the stock (yesterday 43 million units, almost double the average) is the best confirmation of the interest that the stock is attracting among investors, not only from a speculative point of view. At this point, indeed, it can be ventured that the fierce and large consortium guaranteeing the increase headed by UBS (with the assistance of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Mediobanca in the control room) will not have to intervene or, in any case, will have a very limited role. A circumstance that has already given rise to a ferocious tweet from Davide Serra, CEO of Algebris: “Mps pays 260 million, more than 5% of the value of the capital increase. In practice, every 100 euros of new capital, 5 go to the banks. Nice".
Alessandro Profumo and Fabrizio Viola do not reply, as they well remember the dramatic conditions in which the postponement of the operation took place last December and the frantic race to recover the pieces of the consortium. “I think it's important – the bank's president limited himself to commenting a few days ago – to reiterate the fact that today there is a capital increase in progress which basically a few months ago many thought impossible. We have always said that we would make it and I think this is a great satisfaction for all our employees. We have thousands of colleagues who have put their souls into it, who have done an outstanding job. I think we are far beyond the middle of the ford and are about to go back to the shore with a great desire to do our job well".
In short, in Siena we are already looking at 28 June, or the day after the end of the period for exercising option rights, when the new balances of an institution will emerge. The shareholder map, at that time, will see in first place the 9% syndicate agreement made up of the Mps Foundation (2,5%) and the Brazilian Btg Pactual (2%) and the Fintech (4,5%) of the Argentinian David Martinez. An agreement that could be extended to other partners as Antonella Masi, outgoing president of the Foundation, has suggested.
“We have set ourselves up as an aggregating pole – he said and we hope that the pact will grow. It is one of the qualifying objectives that accompany its construction: the connection with Btg Pactual and Fintech impose an international interlocution, it is an opportunity that must be seized, one must think big, not less". With the contribution of other international investors, such as Blackrock which should maintain a stake of more than 3% at the end of the increase. And waiting to celebrate the release in July, when Mps, with the proceeds of the increase, will repay three quarters of the 4,07 billion Monti-bond, including the relative coupon of around 330 million.
