“Incentives for corporate mergers”. This is the title of the chapter of the budget law which provides for the conversion into tax credits of the DTAs (deferred tax assets) today under discussion in the Chamber, an important step in accelerating the transformation of the Italian banking system. Indeed, it will be an important step in view of a possible merger between Banco Bpm and Bper. But even more important in terms of the acquisition of Monte Paschi by Unicredit. And this explains why the Five Stars since the work in the commission have sided against the use, advocated by the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri, of the DTA as a tax bonus for bank M&A operations.
Specifically, the Five Stars have tried to introduce a ceiling of 500 million in the provision to prevent the 2,9 billion in tax credits held by Monte Paschi from being used for an extraordinary operation to the benefit of Unicredit, probably the only one to be able to take full advantage of the tax bonus. In short, the use of DTAs is a key element of the plan that Piazzetta Cuccia has developed on behalf of the Ministry of the Economy which meets the favor of the majority of the Monte's board of directors, starting with the president Patrizia Grieco. Key element but not unique.
Mediobanca believes that post merger MPS (not necessarily with Unicredit) would make between 290 and 482 million more net profit, thanks to personnel savings of up to 525 million, a lower cost of funding up to 173 million, and a 160 million margin extra interest. To a multiple of 10, these profits add from 2,9 to 4,82 billion in capitalization, to which the analysis adds up to 854 million due to a greater "density" of risk assets on capital, and 2,2 billion in loans of tax that an article of the Budget law will allow to capitalize in the event of mergers in 2021.
Thus we arrive at 5,2-7,8 billion of the total. A bold plan which, despite the new president Pier Carlo Padoan, claims that it did not weigh on the exit of the CEO of Unicredit Jean Pierre Mustier (who announced yesterday that he was giving up all bonuses (except liquidation), probably influenced the farewell of the banker.
But in favor of this solution is the moral suasion of the ECB which has already made it known that the State cannot disburse its share of requirements (64% of the approximately 2,5 billion to be found by January) without a simultaneous merger with other bank.
But the plan must overcome political and trade union obstacles starting with the opposition of Guido Bastianini, the CEO that the Five Stars wanted to lead the bank. Bastianini presents himself as the proponent of a stand alone solution, only to later sympathize with an alliance between the weak, or a three-way merger with the other sick people of the system, Banca Carige more popular than Bari. It is unlikely that a structure capable of standing can emerge from this alliance. But Bastianini, strengthened by the support of a part of the union and of local politics, both frightened by a new wave of redundancies, is really fighting together with the political forces that support him. Here is the value of the vote on the Dta
