There are those who have no doubts about the capital increase of Mps. They are the analysts of Cheuvreux who cut the target price of the Sienese institute from 0,31 to 0,22 euros reiterating the negative judgment of a performance below expectations. The Parisian sim cut its 8/2011 EPS estimates by an average of 2012%. of Monte dei Paschi and predicted a 4% decrease in customer loans in 2012. Furthermore, it also envisages an increase in provisions for credit losses which will only be partly mitigated by the improvement in the interest margin which should benefit from ECB loans and to a lesser extent from the carry trade.
According to Cheuvreux, the hypothesis of a capital increase is more realistic than ever. The test conducted by the EBA last October in fact reported a capital shortfall of approximately 3,2 billion euros. A third of these would be provided through the conversion and refurbishment of Fresh (2003 and 2008). If the European Banking Authority were to accept Monte dei Paschi's proposals to make adequate accounting adjustments, the credit institution could manage its deficit with less demanding de-leveraging. Otherwise it would be necessary to find liquidity of at least 1,5 billion euros.
But Cheuvreux is mainly interested in the remuneration of the Tremonti bonds, which represent about 40% of his profit for the period 2011-2013. But according to the consultancy firm, MPS will not be able to repay the T-bonds by 2013 and this could weigh on the bank's dividend policy.
A Business Square the MPS share lost 0,15%.
