Monte Paschi has reached the end of the line. As expected. A few hours after the go-ahead from the Chamber and the Senate to increase the debt up to 20 billion euros to ensure "an adequate level of liquidity for the banking system" and a capital strengthening program also through "the subscription of new shares", the ingloriously closed the attempt to involve bondholders and investors (including Qatar) in the bank's “market” increase. The institute had had to confess that, within four months, without interventions, liquidity would be reduced to 200 million (against the current 10 billion). Almost simultaneously, the Atlante fund announced that it had undertaken to inject 5 million into Veneto Banca and another 628 into Popolare di Vicenza by 310 January: the two institutes burned their initial dowry. These gifts between Christmas and the Epiphany give a measure of the conditions in which the Bel Paese takes leave of the leap year. The picture of the overall weakness of the system is confirmed by Vivendi's offensive on Mediaset, which sees the Berlusconi family increasingly under attack. Silvio relies on the courts and authorities, Pier Silvio rails against "the technicalities" that prevent Fininvest from buying other shares in the short term. Perhaps Berlusconi junior should blame the decision to sell an abundant 7% of Mediaset to finance the family's dividends, without assessing the risks of a possible takeover. An incautious move, almost the symbol of an improvident country.
Stock Market signals calm on the way: despite wars and attacks, even the markets are preparing to celebrate Christmas.
TRUMP CHOOSES AN ENEMY OF BEIJING FOR TRADE
– Asian markets slow down in the wake of Wall Street. Tokyo – 0,4%, Seoul -0,4%, Sydney +0,8%.
– China's stock markets retreat, once again penalized by the fear that the massive bond sales that have been going on for weeks are only the first signs of what is about to happen to the shares. The rise in interest rates in the United States is causing a massive movement of capital, the flow is mainly from emerging markets to developed ones.
– In addition, the Hong Kong listing is also weighed down by real estate companies, long believed to be at risk of a bubble: the data on apartment prices released tonight nonetheless signal a bullish trend last month. The Hang Seng index loses 0,9%. Shanghai -0,2%.
– Donald Trump has announced his intention to entrust the leadership of foreign trade to the economist Peter Navarro, author of several essays against "the Chinese danger".
– A downturn for the American markets, after the long series of increases: the Dow Jones -0,15% to 19.943,75 postponed the assault on the 20 level. Both the S&P500 - 0,24% and the Nasdaq -0,23% fell the day after the new record. Many operators are convinced that the market is too expensive today: the price/earnings ratio has risen to 17 times against an average historic of 17. But the expectation of tax relief on capital gains advises to wait before proceeding with the realizations.
– Sector rotation detracted from biotech stocks, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF lost 1,1%. In the blue chip basket Merck it lost 1,8% and Pfizer 1,3%.
– The worst title was Accenture – 5% after failing expected growth targets. Twitter also fell sharply -4,69% after the resignation of technology director Adam Messinger.
– It also goes down Fedex -3,33%: The shipping company announced a 12% drop in operating profit.
ENI AMONG UBS' FAVORITES, THUD OF SAIPEM
– The drop in the dollar favored the strengthening of oil prices: Brent at 54,64 dollars a barrel, Wti at 52,64.
- Saipem it lost 3,2%: after Mediobanca, UBS also lowered its Buy recommendation to Neutral. Tenaris drops by 0,7%.
- Eni +0,1%: Ubs raised its target to 17 euros from 15,5, confirming the Buy rating. According to analysts, the price of crude oil is destined to appreciate again in 2017 but not at the pace recorded in the second half of this year. Within the energy sector, Shell and Eni (both Buy rated) are the preferred stocks among the integrated groups. Statoil and BP were promoted to Buy by Neutral.
MILAN BRAKES, MADRID SLIPS ON MORTGAGES. FLY CAR UK
An almost holiday day is looming for the European stock exchanges with the exception of Milan grappling with the epilogue of the Monte Paschi crisis.
– Piazza Affari interrupted the series of increases yesterday: the Ftse Mib index closed the session with little movement with -0,16% at 19.215 points, with very low volumes.
– The trend of the other markets is similar. Frankfurt ends unchanged, Paris -0,3%.
– The strongest loss was that of the Madrid Stock Exchange (-0,4%), weighed down by the fall of the banks, after a sentence by the Court of Justice of the EU which establishes the right of customers of credit institutions to request the repayment of excess interest paid on mortgages before 2013. popular Bank it lost 5,8%.
– Brexit, for now, has done the British car industry good. In November, production rose by 12,8% compared to a year ago. In the first 11 months of the year, 1,6 million vehicles were produced, more than in all of 2015.
– The Btp/Bund spread essentially remained below 160 basis points, against a ten-year rate that fluctuated between a minimum of 1,80% and a maximum of 1,86%.
– The Italy/Spain spread also falls by 5 bp to 47.
– According to Dbrs, the decisions that the government will take regarding MPS and the banking sector will be fundamental for the sovereign rating. The Canadian agency which guarantees Italy's only A rating, has communicated that the final decision on the possible downgrade will be taken on January 13th.
– Yesterday was the last day of ECB Qe buying before the holiday suspension; shopping will resume on January 2nd.
QATAR WITHDRAWS, LAST ACT FOR MPS
Monte Paschi is starting to pass under the control of the Treasury. The board of directors scheduled for the morning should appeal to the rules contained in the BRRD banking crisis resolution directive, warning the institutions that it is not possible to complete the 5 billion capital increase imposed by the European Central Bank: the conversion of the bonds has gathered adhesions for 2,44 billion, but other than that, nothing else. The sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the investor that has still been talked about at length in recent weeks, pulled back. Without an anchor investor, however, no increase.
Also during the day, or at the latest tomorrow, a lightning council of ministers should issue the measure to secure the credit institution. This epilogue has arrived after yet another dramatic day: the title Milan was a day of passion for MontePaschi, which finished down 12% after a series of violent swings that first saw it plunge by 18%, when the bank specified that it only had liquidity for four months (two days ago it said it had it for 11 months) . Then in the late morning there was a recovery up to parity, favored by the news that the House and Senate had given the green light to the extraordinary intervention in support of the 20 billion banks. The final fall was caused by the rumors which confirmed that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar is not participating in the capital increase.
In the meantime, the Atlante fund has reiterated that it is available "to implement the securitization plan of Banca Mps' NPLs", which is already substantially defined in terms of price and in all its implementation phases, without senior bridge financing, even if there is an intervention of the State in the capital, in the ways and times that the MPS board of directors will want to consider".
Among other banks, Understanding closed in a draw Unicredit + 1,2% Popular Bank -0,3%. It's positive Ubi + 1,9 %
Bene Fineco Bank +1,86%: Equita Sim raised the weight in its portfolio by 150 bps
MEDIASET, SELL CLOSE TO 30%. BERLUSCONI. WE DO NOT TREAT
Vivendi's offensive continues to the sound of purchases in Piazza Affari on Mediaset + 2,8%. French group Vivendi is approaching the 30% threshold at which it will have an effective blocking minority and force Berlusconi to negotiate. However, the Authorities are about to take the field: tomorrow the PDG Arnaud de Puyfontaine will be heard by Consob. AgCom has opened an investigation after the appeal of the Mediaset board of directors. "I don't even imagine a Mediaset not led by my family," Silvio Berlusconi said yesterday. "We are in a strange situation, we can't buy more than 5% of Mediaset shares a year, the rules don't allow us to do that - he acknowledged however - We have already reached this limit, and therefore the French have had good luck buying the 29%. They blackmailed us, extorted us and therefore we are in a battle in the face of this hostile takeover and we plan to resist".
Telecom Italy it fell by 0,3%.
BREMBO AWARDED BY EQUITA. ORDERS PUSH ASTALDI
In the rest of the list:
– Among the industrialists StM + 0,4% Fiat Chrysler + 0,2% Prysmian unchanged.
- Well Brembo +1,3% among Equita Sim's best picks for 2017. Cnh also rose +0,42%, which concluded the cash purchase offer launched through the subsidiary Case New Holland on a portion of the outstanding senior bonds for a nominal value of 1,05 billion dollars.
– The utilities are negative Enel -0,7%, A2A -1,4%
- Astaldi earn 8% thanks to new orders.
- Go internet +12,4% after the signing of the contract with Enel Open Fiber.
