Smooth sailing with final sprint today for the European lists, which closed higher looking at the sustained performance of Wall Street. However, the downward revision of global economic growth by Moody's, which also cut estimates for Italy, does not fuel pessimism.
Piazza Affari rises by 1,22% at 24.546 basis points, driven by oil, industrials and financials. Paris +1,78%, Frankfurt +1,6%, Madrid +1,45%, Amsterdam +1,27% are even more tonic. London +0,58% is behind, while other squares in northern Europe have remained closed for the feast of the Ascension.
Wall Street on the rise with retail and Twitter
The American stock market, already tuned at the start, is achieving results earnings above 1% (+2% the Nasdaq), thanks to the good quarterly results of large-scale retail companies (Macy's, +13%; Dollar General +11%) and macro data in chiaroscuro. Sometimes even bad news has a good side. It is the case of stars and stripes GDP for the first quarter, which, according to the second reading, contracted more than expected (-1,5%, against estimates of -1,3%), despite consumer spending having increased by 3,1%. A trend that could lead the Fed to more lenient advice, also in light of the reading of the minutes of the last meeting published yesterday. Most bankers lean towards two further hikes of 50 basis points at the June and July meetings, but seems oriented towards keeping their hands free at subsequent meetings. “The minutes are consistent with a number of policy options, but a slower pace of tightening looks the most likely route,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Better than the estimates are then i unemployment benefits, whose requests in the last week have dropped by 8 thousand to 210 thousand.
Among the titles, it is worth noting the performance of Twitter, +4,8%, after Elon Musk revised the offer and increased his equity stake to $33,5 billion from the previous $27,5 billion and further lowered the amount borrowed from banks. According to a document registered by the American Market Authority (SEC), the founder of Tesla who had initially signed 25,5 billion in loans, reduced them to 13 billion dollars.
Moody's: conflict in Ukraine and Covid in China weigh on GDP
The war in Eastern Europe and the Chinese lockdowns weigh on growth and induce Moody's to cut its estimates. The expectation for 2022 for developed countries was reduced to 2,6% (from the previous 3,2% expected in March) to 3,8% from 4,2% in the case of emerging countries.
The scissor also hits theItaly: in 2022 +2,3%, from +3,2% expected in March; in 2023 +1,7% from +2,1%.
Italy is thus in line with the Eurozone this year: +2,3% (+2,5% in previous forecasts). However, the block will improve in 2023 (+2,2 to +2,3%).
“Although inflation is expected to decline this year and next – writes the agency in a note – high inflation rates could persist for many more months, due to energy and food prices, of the shifting of input costs and supply chain disruptions from China”.
According to Moody's, families in Europe “are facing a prolonged real income compression and the impact of government support packages, including energy rebates, income assistance and value-added tax cuts, is unlikely to fully mitigate the effects of high inflation.
The USA also slowed down, from +3,7 to +2,8% in 2022 and from +2,5% to +2,3% in 2023, and China too, limited to 2022, from +5,1% to +4,5%, while in 2023 Beijing's GDP is revised upwards from +5,2 to +5,3%.
Spreads down
In this context the dollar weakens and the euro recovers an exchange rate at 1,071.
Yields on T-Bonds appear stable, around the lowest levels since April, while those in Europe are down.
The 2,91-year BTP drops by +0,99%, while the Bund with the same duration closes at +XNUMX%, for one spread at 192 basis points, -3,25%.
Among the raw materials the Petroleum: Brent futures rise by 2,5% and trade at 116,90 dollars a barrel.
On the currency market it deals down the ruble, after the recent highs against the dollar. Weighing on the Russian currency is the rate cut by the Moscow central bank which brought the cost of money down to 11% from the previous 14%.
Piazza Affari, super rebound from Saipem. Retrieve Stm
Saipem rebounds like a magic ball after the losses on the eve and appreciates by 8,71%, in view of the capital increase. “A trader cites a broker upgrade” as the reason for the rally, writes Reuters. The oil sector confirms itself as well bought also thanks to the progress of crude oil. So the big Eni +0,89% and Tenaris +2,73%, but also Maire Tecnimont +9,52% are in the money.
Goes on the happy phase of financial stocks. Today, asset management shares stand out above all: Banca Generali +4,16%, Azimut +2,79%, Banca Mediolanum +3,18%. In the Nexi area +3,26%. The banks are more cautious. Bper increases by 1,23%, after the go-ahead from the ECB to acquire control of Carige.
Squeeze the four wheels with Pirelli +3,46%, Ferrari +3,063%, Stellantis +2,47%.
Stm cancels the losses seen in the morning, to close with an increase of 1,8% in the wake of the Nasdaq. On the sector, the estimates below the expectations of Nvidia (+3,9%) on the sales of microchips in the quarter had made themselves felt.
They are only four decreases on the Ftse Mib: Terna -1,18%; Inwit -0,29%; Atlantia -0,18%; Snam -0,14%.
