Is the exit from the euro a tragedy? Not for sure for Greece. This is supported by the Moody's rating agency, which not only reduces the alarmism on the hypothesis of Greece's exit from the euro, but if anything goes as far as to predict positive long-term effects for Athens. "Greece's growth could outpace that of the rest of the euro area," US analysts say. And paradoxically it would be precisely this momentum, following the abandonment of the shared currency, which could create problems, because "it could trigger debate on further outflows".
Moody's specifies that the immediate exit of Athens would cause "significant damage" to the Greek economy. But the foreseeable devaluation of its new national currency would facilitate the correction of its imbalances. And for the other Euroland countries today, a Greek defection would have less serious repercussions than what would have happened if a similar scenario had occurred in 2012. "Maybe because the risks of contagion have materially decreased", as demonstrated by the performance of government bonds, almost unchanged in the currency partners in the face of the strong increases recorded in Greece. “Because – concludes the agency – today policy makers have better tools to respond to a similar event”.
The "grexit" hypothesis, as the British baptize Greece's exit from the euro, is linked above all to the imminent early elections. They will be held on January 25 and the polls place the left-wing Syriza movement in the lead, led by Alexis Tsipras, who, while assuring that he wants to stay in the currency, has clearly said he wants to restructure the country's public debt. Hypothesis that the other partners could strongly oppose.
