There is no doubt that yesterday's vote in Greece and the possibility that Athens will be led (very quickly) by a government in favor of trying to stay in the eurozone strengthen Mario Monti and the stability of his Executive. But the unknowns remain. The first is linked to how international dialogue will evolve, first at the G20 and then, at the end of the month, at the European summit. The second depends on holding of the "strange" majority of Pd, center and Pdl. In particular, it is in the PDL that many stomach aches have emerged in recent weeks regarding support for Monti. To the point that in the party of Alfano and Berlusconi there was no shortage of those who proved tempted by the possibility of withdrawing support from the government, perhaps to aim for an immediate electoral campaign, centered on nostalgia for the lira. Perhaps in line with a return of the drachma in Greece. Operation nostalgia that after the vote in Athens appears a little more problematic.
But let's start with Monti. Before the Greek vote, the prime minister had made it clear what the two conditions were for Italy to arrive in the best possible conditions at the European summit at the end of the month. The first is majority holding; the second (closely connected to the first) the approval of the labor reform in Parliament.
Majority hold. Casini (and this applies to the UDC and more generally to the area of the so-called third pole) argues that it would be both a sin and a crime to pull the plug on the government now. Bersani confirms that the Democratic Party (which also has many reservations on the issue of redundancies and is not in favor of the policy of announcements regarding the development decree) considers the choice of support for Monti irreversible until the end of the Legislature, given that the Italy emergency it comes first.
The problems come instead from the PDL. Let's be clear: for now, the secretary Alfano has shown himself, thanks to Berlusconi's support, able to face the temptations, both of Brunetta and Santanchè, and of the former An area, to pull the plug on Monti and go to elections in October. In recent days, however, even Alfano, probably due to Berlusconi's doubts, has shown less benevolence towards the government. Thus, after behind the scenes newspapers began to write about a Berlusconi tempted by the crazy idea of going to the elections riding the anti-euro and anti-tax discontent and perhaps proposing the crazy idea of a return to the lira (these hypotheses have never been denied up to now) Alfano also seemed to distance himself from the government. And so the secretary was more than disappointed by the first news on the development decree, noting that the Government had allocated just one billion and not 80 as the newspapers headlined.
Probably Berlusconi and, in part, also Alfano think that on this line it is possible to recover the alliance with the League. Yesterday from Verona, Bossi, but also Maroni, used very harsh tones against the government, inviting the PDL to immediately pull the plug to resume dialogue. But above all the melancholic decline of Berlusconi and the weakening of the support of the electorate weigh on the PDL. The polls speak of a PDL below 15%. And Berlusconi is convinced that Monti's support costs the party one point a week. Hence the temptation to break the delay and go to the elections, perhaps with an electoral campaign based entirely on "strength lira". An idea that from today, however, cannot count on the incident that could have come from a defeat of the pro-European parties in Greece. Instead, Athens did not say "strength drachma".
And so there is a good chance that Monti's two conditions for reaching the European summit in the best possible way will be fulfilled. Starting with the approval of the labor market reform. The president of the Chamber Fini explained that, if there is the support of the Democratic Party and the Pdl, it could be approved by June 28th. We will see. Meanwhile, there are those (again in the PDL) who invite Monti to raise his voice with the German chancellor to bring something home. It doesn't seem like the best way. After all, Berlusconi never raised his voice when he was prime minister. Better for Monti to present himself at the European summit with his style, perhaps referring to the speech of Alcide De Gasperi, at the Paris Peace Conference in August 1946, the day after the end of the war, the defeat of Italy and of the fall of Mussolini and fascism. The statesman from Trentino began as follows: "As I take the floor in this world assembly, I feel that everything except your personal courtesy is against me"... Then things got better. Also for Italy.
