The World Cup up for grabs. This time it is not rhetoric or even the banal sports epic of the eve, but the simple and stark reality: in Belfast, against Northern Ireland (20.45), we are playing for direct access to Qatar, even if, unfortunately, with an ear strained on Lucerne, where Switzerland will host Bulgaria. The question is well known by now, but it is good to repeat it to better focus on what awaits us: the Azzurri and the Swiss are tied for first place with 15 pointsreason why, to decide who will go directly to the World Cup and who, instead, will have to go through the unknown play-off, will be goal difference, who currently sees us leading by two goals. So winning in Belfast becomes the basis, but it's clear that if the Swiss did the same with the Bulgarians, we'd need to grab the calculator and figure out who, net of goals scored and conceded, will be able to detach the pass for Qatar.
Almost unbelievable situation for us, European champions not later than 4 months ago and now at risk of the playoffs, yet 100% real, due to an autumn not living up to the expectations generated by the summer. But woe to bandage your head before having broken it: Northern Ireland, net of the suggestion George Best, occupies the 58th place in the FIFA Ranking, while we are in fourth (on a par with France third), with the considerable detail that you have just won a European Championship.
“No bad thoughts – he thundered Mancini in the press conference – In the national team there is always pressure, this time there will perhaps be a little more but we have to try to stay focused on what we have to do. It's not a question of scoring many goals but of playing the game, if they didn't concede any goals at home that means something. It's a tough game, but if we manage to score more than one goal we'll have more chances to win."
Yes, because net of an enormous technical superiority it is right to underline how the Northern Irish have a not indifferent peculiarity within the friendly walls of Windsor Park: in fact, in three qualifying matches, they scored a victory (on Friday against Lithuania) and two draws , scoring two goals and conceding zero. Not the best for those who, Mancini dixit, are looking for a wide success, with the awareness that Switzerland will probably do the same at home with Bulgaria.
And to think that all these talks would not have happened if Jorginho had scored at least one of the two penalties against the Swiss… The past cannot be erased, but the future can still have other perspectives, which is why Belfast is discussing the possibility Of change penalty taker, given that the Italian-Brazilian, from an absolute specialist, has become fallible, in the light of three consecutive errors from the penalty spot. “If they'll give us one not I will beat him – said the captain Bonucci in the press conference – We will decide at the moment, but for now we have decided to leave everything as usual…”. So Jorginho again, provided that the same does not decide to fold and give it to someone else.
In any case, qualification is not played on penalties, but in the match and Italy needs to be there find some verve in the goal area, the only true Achilles heel in a team that plays well, but struggles to score. Mancini, in the light of the many absences and the disappointing performance of Belotti, has in mind a 4-3-3 without pure striker, with Donnarumma in goal, Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Acerbi and Emerson Palmieri in defense, Barella, Jorginho and Tonali in midfield, Berardi, Insigne and Chiesa in attack, even if the use of Scamacca cannot be totally excluded.
Baraclough, despite his Northern Ireland no longer having ambitions of qualifying for some time, will try to treat themselves to a night of glory with a 3-5-2 with Peacock-Farrel between the posts, Cathcart, Evans and McNair in the back, Ferguson, Saville, Davis, McCann and Dallas in halfback, Washington and Magennis offensive pair.
Were it to go badly, it should be stressed, we would not be out of the World Cup, but forced into the treacherous end of March 2022 play-offs. Compared to 2017, the rules have changed, so there is no longer a challenge with a single opponent, but a real tournament with dry semifinal (on the field of the best of the Ranking) e final round trip. Among the possible adversaries, awaiting tonight's and tomorrow's matches which will complete the picture, there is also Sweden and we don't need to remember why we would like to avoid them at all costs. However, let's hope we never have to think about this, because fate is still in our hands and necessarily passes from tonight.
