If there is a city where the "new normal" is very different from the old normal, it is Milan. Own its status as the locomotive city of Italy, as a national and international champion of many things (finance, innovation, fashion, design and all the rest), means that, if there is a place where the restart seems more tiring than elsewhere, this is precisely the Lombard capital. Partly because when you go fast and stop, it's more difficult to start racing again, partly because it was precisely the old Milanese normality, the turbo-dynamic one with strong international traction, that favored the greater spread of the virus. “The more foreigners, the more contagion,” he summarizes the vice president of Assolombarda Antonio Calabrò, according to which the Milano model is not in danger: “For the simple fact that it is not a model. It is a complex metropolis, in constant motion”.
RESTAURANTS AND TOURISM
In recent weeks, Milan is still a shadow of itself: the complexities and movement Calabrò talks about are not yet what they used to be. Many closed shutters, few people on the subway even at peak times (the very concept of rush hour has evaporated, with smart working), many masks around, with a discipline that is starting to loosen in the rest of Italy, but here the virus is still contagious and scary . This year fairs and exhibitions, the strong point of Milan's international relations, are completely skipped. And among the city businesses, the most in difficulty are those related to catering and tourism: according to data from the Confcommercio research office of Milan, Lodi, Monza and Brianza, 18% of non-food shops have reopened since 97 May, but only 59% of restaurants and 29% of travel agencies. The latter have 8% of customers in the first week of June compared to usual, restaurants 31%, hotels 6%.
We are talking, only in Milan and only for the trade and tourism sectors, of almost 100.000 businesses as of 31 December 2019, which in the first quarter of 2020 (only partially overwhelmed by the Covid-19 crisis) decreased by only 500 units. But in Rome, for example, they have even managed to increase, and the second quarter will reveal much more dramatic data, given that according to the survey conducted by Confcommercio on 1.079 companies, only 4,3% consider the support measures sufficient launched by the Government. Wandering around the city, sensations confirm the numbers: several shutters lowered in the centre, even in the Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II, where historical places have remained closed such as Savini, Biffi and the Marchesi pastry shop. Someone else, like the renowned Spontini, Luini and Sorbillo is getting by, Motta only makes bars and outdoor tables. The atmosphere is what it is. “There is a great desire to roll up one's sleeves – testifies Marco Accornero, general secretary of the Craftsmen Union -. I'm optimistic about the recovery, but we need to see the times. The risk is that the initial momentum will run out after a few months. First thing to do? de-bureaucratize”.
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
Yet never before Covid had Milan become so attractive. "Let's remember that it has come to have, on the financial markets, a different and obviously better rating than the Italian one," he said the former mayor Piero Borghini, interviewed by FIRSTonline. “Milan is a complex machine built over the years – continues Calabrò of Assolombarda – and integrated with the European economy. Despite all the problems, this car didn't crash like some say, it just slowed down. The fundamental assets are all standing: manufacturing, finance, services, innovation, research, training with universities that are at the top of international rankings. Even tourism, even if it will suffer greatly for a while yet”. An analysis conducted by Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo confirms the boom in Lombardy tourism and in the city of Milan: the data for the first nine months of 2019 indicate 36 million presences in Lombardy with a +7,5% compared to the same period of 2018, with Milan standing at +4,5 .XNUMX%.
A heritage which, once again demonstrating the international prestige of the city, means over 5.000 companies owned by foreign multinationals, which employ more than 520 people and have a turnover of approximately 245 billion euros. Precisely to support the tourism sector, Intesa Sanpaolo has launched a ceiling of 280 million, a large part of the total 2 billion at national level. “It's time to look at the restart - intervenes Gianluigi Venturini, regional director of Milan and the Province of Intesa Sanpaolo -, but it will take time. The Covid-19 epidemic has disrupted the economic environment in which we operate: some sectors such as fashion, design, the mechanical and automotive industries have been particularly affected, but on the other hand there has been a good response from the biomedical hub of Milan and from the Lombard pharmaceutical district”.
ENTERPRISES AND FINANCING
The situation is not difficult only in the centre. TO CityLife, the cathedral of shopping and food inaugurated two and a half years ago in the complex of the three towers of Generali, Allianz and Pwc (whose construction is now nearing completion), the flow of people on weekdays has decreased considerably: the Anteo maxi cinema is still closed, as are several clubs and restaurants, due to the absence of tourists but also to the smart working of the surrounding offices. Generali for example has approx 2.000 employees in the Hadid Tower, and on average over 95% work remotely, with a few exceptions rigorously governed by a plan launched even before the lockdown: to access the impressive structure you need to check in via the dedicated EmployeeUp app. Smart working at full blast also for Intesa Sanpaolo, which has 13 employees between Milan and the province, 11 of whom are enabled to work remotely.
So what emerges is that many businesses will struggle to survive: in many, as in all of Italy, they are using the SME Guarantee Fund up to 25 thousand euros and the initiatives of the various banks. The data provided by Banco Bpm is eloquent: in the Municipality of Milan alone, loans to companies went from around 750 in the pre-lockdown period (from the beginning of the year to mid-March) to over 3.100 transactions in the following period, with the Fund for SMEs which represented a significant share of this operation, approximately 88%. "The sectors that were most affected - comments Marco Aldeghi, head of the Milan and Northern Lombardy Territorial Department of the bank - were those of tourism and transport, organization of trade fairs and conferences as well as an important part of retail distribution, while they were less affected from the crisis, or in any case in the recovery phase, online commerce and food".
Not to mention the social shock absorbers: three months after the start of the lockdown, again according to a survey by Confcommercio Milano, Lodi, Monza and Brianza, for half of the tertiary companies no redundancy fund payments have arrived for the employees. And the figure is improving in May, in April it was 96%. The survey involved nearly 1.000 businesses, 86% of which have fewer than nine employees, and 26% of which are in the catering sector. Only 32% have used the above bank loan, and most (65%) believe that the only way out is non-repayable contributions. It is no longer even fashionable to hypothesize the reduction of labor costs (18%) or the postponement of tax deadlines (12%). Only one in five companies has never stopped, while 15% are still at a standstill, after an abundant month of Phase 2. Of this 15%, half may not reopen. And among those who restarted, only 58% did so with full staff.
“Non-repayable contributions – says Marco Barbieri, general secretary of Confcommercio Milano, Lodi, Monza and Brianza – are the most requested and urgent measure, but only from the beginning of next week will the models of the Revenue Agency be available to be able to obtain them. And all this almost a month after the publication of the Relaunch Decree in the Official Gazette. Also on local taxes, for example, you have to be much more courageous. In a still dramatic crisis situation, an immediate turnaround is essential to avoid irreparable damage to the business system”.
ECOBONUS AND MORTGAGES
The crisis has consequently reduced the figure for mortgages to families, for the purchase of homes for the city of Milan, for example, going from 280 to 250 for Banco Bpm between before and after the confinement. However, the slowdown in the real estate market could be overcome thanks to the Ecobonus, the 110% subsidy provided by the Government for those who invest in energy efficiency. According to Accornero, the Ecobonus can even be the driving force behind the recovery: “It can help the system installation sector a lot”, claims the top of the Craftsmen Union. Intesa Sanpaolo in this regard even has launched a new green offer: not only the credit advance which will then be repaid by the Ecobonus for the adaptation works, but also mortgages and personal loans which reward those who buy buildings with high energy efficiency with advantageous rate conditions. “However, it is not real estate investments that the game of restarting will be played – is the opinion of Piero Borghini, mayor of the city from 1992 to 1994 -: in my opinion Milan should restart from infrastructures and the knowledge economy: hospitals, universities, innovation”.
“Milan will be great again – says Calabrò of Assolombarda – and in saying this, I feel more realistic than optimistic. Already in 1018 the Archbishop of the city, Ariberto d'Intimiano, said that 'those who know how to work come to Milan. Anyone who comes to Milan is a free man'. He very topical words, over a millennium later. Sometimes Milan is considered arrogant, but there is so much substance behind it. The city has enormous energies and is not only obsessed with working and working well: Milan is also culture, hospitality and freedom. Where to start from? In my opinion, the priorities are industry, infrastructure and fiscal support that effectively extends the Industry 4.0 programme”.
CULTURE
Not less important, try to restart the culture too. The Teatro alla Scala, a city institution, may have already closed its season: since the beginning of the lockdown it has already lost 20 million euros and with the rules of reopening it would lose 50 thousand a day. We will try to save some dates in the autumn, otherwise we'll talk about it with the 2020-2021 season. In return the museums have reopened and the initial feedback is positive, testifying to the desire to start again from beauty: “In the first week – reveals Giovanni Morale, deputy director of the Gallerie d'Italia – we totaled 1.200 visitors. A high number, considering the absence of groups and schools. We didn't expect it, we had opened mostly to give a signal, and instead we had many families with small children. Obviously there is a lack of tourists and visitors from other regions, especially from Sicily which surprisingly is the most represented in our museum, after Lombardy and the neighboring regions".
The museum headquarters of Intesa Sanpaolo is just a stone's throw from La Scala, and Morale himself recognizes the symbolic value that the reopening of the theater would have: “The first post-war concert, directed in May '48 by Arturo Toscanini, was a memorable moment. Culture is essential at this stage. Living in beauty and feelings is a necessity, as well as a great economic flywheel. People are fed up with digital, they want truth, physicality. We have played a great team game with the other museums in recent weeks, agreeing to reopen more or less all together: we wanted to give a signal to the city".
