Oil bounces and they bounce the bags, which close positive in Europe and move in tune on Wall Street, despite fears related to Beijing's zero Covid policy, at a time when infections are growing in China. In the week of the US Thanksgiving holiday, which falls on Thursday, there is still anticipation for the imminent publication of the minutes of the latest Fed and ECB meetings.
The desire to take risks is also growing despite the many uncertainties of the period. Optimism seeks to make room, as can also be seen from the improvement beyond expectations consumer confidence in the euro area and in the EU. In the single currency area, the indicator remains negative, but passes from -23,9 in October to -27,5 in November.
As far as global economic growth is concerned, there is a slowdown, but it will not lead to a recession next year. says theOECD, in the update of the forecasts, while recalling that Europe is at the center of the cyclone.
Global growth is expected to slow to 2,2% in 2023 from 3,1% this year, before accelerating to 2,7% in 2024, according to the latest Economic Outlook.
Piazza Affari among the best in Europe
With energy and banks in progress, Business Square it is today among the best in Europe with a gain of 0,96% which brings it to 24.590 basis points. Today's performance follows an eve of losses, due in part to the coupon detachment of eight blue chips, which had relegated the Ftse Mib to the black jersey.
In the rest of Europe it is confirmed tonic Madrid +1,65%, followed by London + 1% Amsterdam + 0,84% Paris + 0,35% Frankfurt + 0,3%.
Euro/dollar slightly moved around 1,027.
Stable spread after the maneuver by the Meloni government
The Italian secondary does not record any "Truss" effect in light of the maneuver by the Meloni government. The first budget law after the elections has therefore not frightened the markets and should not displease Brussels either, although Italy, due to its high debt, is among the ten countries monitoring by the EU Commission due to excessive macroeconomic imbalances. Based on the outcome of the analysis carried out by the European executive in the Alert mechanism report, Italy will have to undergo in-depth reviews to assess the evolution of the situation. In total, there are 17 Member States on which in-depth reviews will be carried out.
The maneuver package, described as "courageous" by Giorgia Meloni, is worth 35 billion euros between further deficits and cuts in tax revenues and is intended to accelerate the country's economic recovery which, according to Treasury forecasts, will contract in the current quarter and in the first quarter of next year. This goal, however, seems to be its weakest point.
In any case, the tricolor card closes the session without jolts, with one spread between the ten-year Italian and German at 191 basis points (+0,52%). Yields are stable: +3,9% for the 10-year BTP and +1,99% for the Bund.
Oil rears its head
Il Petroleum it appreciates by more than two percentage points, both for Brent and for Wti. The denial of Saudi Arabia on alleged increases in production to be discussed in the next OPEC+ meeting. Riyadh said the cartel and their allies would stick to the cuts schedule and could take further steps to balance the market, overshadowing fears about the global recession and rising COVID-19 cases in China.
The gas war escalates
Meanwhile, the gas war between the European Union and Russia is escalating. On the one hand, the EU Commission has decided to propose an instrument to limit the price of gas: it is a security 'price cap' of 275 euros on the previous month's TTF derivatives. There are two conditions for the mechanism to trigger: when the settlement price of the derivative exceeds 275 euros for two weeks and when the TTF prices are 58 euros higher than the reference price of the LNG for ten consecutive trading days in those two weeks.
On the other Gazprom threatens to reduce gas flows through Ukraine from Monday, the last route of Russian gas to Europe.
In this context today the CNG price in Amsterdam which, in the middle of the day, moved above 119 euros.
Piazza Affari towing oil stocks; bounces Telecom
Energy is in the spotlight today in Piazza Affari, with the sector having digested the increase to 35% of the tax rate on the extra profits of energy companies planned for 2023. The new levy replaces the regime that had unleashed criticisms and refusals of payment by numerous companies. The tax base also changes, no longer on turnover but on profits. For 2022, the expected rate will rise from 25% to 35% but calculated on profits and no longer on turnover.
Leading the list are two oil stocks, such as Tenaris +6,57% ed Eni + 4,52%.
Enel instead, he trims the gains up to 0,49%, after the presentation of the strategy 2023-2025 which initially had given wings to the title. The electric giant intends to sell assets for 21 billion euros between 2023 and 2025 and the industrial plan provides for an increase in Ebitda. The company also confirmed its dividend policy.
Bounce hard Telecom +3,45%, which was a negative match, but found comfort in the words of Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who revealed to journalists a meeting of government representatives on the Tim dossier, emphasizing that "the State must have control over part of the network that has a strategic interest.”
Among the best on the list Leonardo + 2,17%.
Banks are in the money with Bpm bank +1,95% and Unicredit + 1,25%.
Among the industrialists they stand out Cnh +1,78% and Prysmian +1,41. The latter made an order to Fincantieri (+2,83%) for the design and construction of a second state-of-the-art cable-laying vessel, with delivery expected in 2025. The contract is worth approximately 200 million euro.
The declines among the blue chips are modest and penalize Recordati -1,15% Interpump -0,77% Terna -0,77% Amplifon -0,77%.
