Stefano Micossi, in addition to holding the position of director general of Assonime, is a talented economist who knows Europe well having held an important position at the top of the technostructure in Brussels. In the latter capacity, he took part on Monday evening in a meeting between Italian and German economists organized by the German embassy in Rome. Useful meetings because they aim to keep a channel of dialogue open between the two worlds which, on the other hand, seem to be increasingly distant at this stage, and the trust which is at the basis of European construction is gradually fading.
On the sidelines of the meeting which focused on the risks of instability in the Eurozone and in which Micossi's report played a central role, highlighting the shortcomings both of the weak countries and those deriving from further restrictive pressures on public debts which come from the stronger ones, we asked Micossi himself an opinion on the new rupture between Italy and the EU which took place after the Bratislava summit. "Break? Indeed, the language used by our premier Renzi was rather aggressive. Certainly relations are tense, but I hope it is not a real break. After all, so far the words have not been followed by facts that suggest that it has been decided to break the common rules on fundamental issues such as budgetary policy or immigration. In short, for now they seem more like bullets fired blanks, more for internal use than real broadsides aimed at destroying the European edifice.”
However, it cannot be denied that public opinion in various countries, not only in Italy, is restless and critical of European policies. This is giving breath to many political formations that openly want to detach themselves from Europe and close themselves within their home borders.
“I understand the contingent political difficulties that push us to raise the tone to cut the grass under the feet of more or less anti-Europeanism
explicit statement of other political forces and important sectors of public opinion, especially in view of important electoral consultations. However, a weak country like Italy should be careful not to damage its own international credibility that has been painstakingly regained but always in a precarious form. And above all, it should be taken into account that even from a strictly political point of view, pursuing anti-European nationalists on their turf could lead citizens to vote for the original and discard the substitute.”
Even Draghi does nothing but call on the States to adopt more appropriate policies, not just economic ones, to increase the cohesion and trust of citizens in Europe which certainly appears to be late in many dossiers.
“Yes, but it is not accurate to say that Germany with its huge trade balance surplus does not play by the rules. In fact, those on international trade do not have the same nature as the other rules, they are only recommendations. And then, doing the math right, it is by no means certain that the reduction of the German surplus can really benefit the weaker countries. As far as immigration is concerned, it must be remembered that already last year the Commission and the Council approved the policies for the distribution of quotas for migrants and for a common border control system. The implementation of these decisions encounters difficulties, however it would be good to remember that in these matters our interests and those of Germany fully coincide, as Renzi himself had fully recognized in recent months on several public occasions".
And what about the economy? Here too Draghi continues to call for reforms and on public budgets he recommends prudence to indebted countries and a little more courage to those with profits.
“I fear that Renzi's emphasis on flexibility could lead us down a perilous path. I see no benefit in defying the rules in public while negotiating a deal in private. Talking about the possibility of acting even without the agreement with Brussels seems to me a destructive message for Europe and for Italy's credibility. In general, I think it would be good to ask ourselves about the effectiveness of policies for the distribution of pennies to workers and pensioners both as a stimulus to recovery and as a contrast to extremist political tendencies. If these policies were to make the sustainability of our public budget more difficult, it would be more difficult to overcome the Italian stagnation that has been going on for at least two decades".
So what can growth be triggered by?
“In general, it seems to me that the positive results of the Juncker plan are underestimated, which in fact will now need to be strengthened. But I am convinced that higher growth can only be the result of effective domestic policies and on this I think it can be said that, after a good start, I now fear that Renzi risks losing his way.”
But it must also be said that the road to reform is long and arduous and that in order to carry them out, strong support from the political forces and public opinion is needed. From this point of view, the referendum will be a decisive test of Italy's will to continue on a virtuous path.
