At the end of the morning, all the European stock exchanges are moving in positive territory, betting on the German ok for the Eurobonds. The pink jersey for the moment belongs to Milan, which earns 1,75%. Meanwhile, the spread between the BTP and the Bund returned to 480, nullifying the sharp drop recorded at the start. 7-year yields continue to hover around XNUMX%.
EURO, GOVERNMENT BONDS AND STOCK EXCHANGES IN THE STORM
TOKYO DOESN'T EVEN TRUST BUNDS
Manuel Barroso broke the delay: yesterday the President of the Commission presented the draft stability bonds, a first step towards Eurobonds that does not require revision of the treaties. But Angela Merkel immediately retorted that the idea seems to her "completely inappropriate". Even Wolfgang Schaueble, Finance Minister of Berlin, commenting on the flop of the Bund auction limited himself to saying that "the situation will remain agitated for a few months". In short, the moment has not yet arrived in which "Germany will realize that it is the last first-class passenger of the Titanic" according to a colorful expression of the Financial Times. Mario Monti, today a guest of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, has the arduous task of convincing Berlin that water has now invaded the ballroom.
THE DISASTER IN FIGURES. The incredible happened: the Bundesbank had to take over 39% of the offer of the Bunds offered at the auction. The contagion that started in Athens has now reached the heart of the euro area: the spread for the BTP is 490 bp. As a result, the CDS on European sovereign debt jumps to all-time highs, the stock exchanges are feeling the pinch. In Milan the index FtseMib it closed down 2,6% at 13.915 points, slipping to its lowest level since last September 26th. Madrid -1,7%, Frankfurt -1%, France -1,2%. Wall Street's reaction was even heavier, today closed for Thanksgiving (but shareholders have very little reason to say thank you): Dow Jones- 2,05%, S&P 500– 2,21, Nasdaq -2,43% . Since November 15, the capitalization of US markets has dropped by 850 billion dollars. The price/earnings ratio has slipped to 12,2 times against an average of 1954 times since 16,4: the recession is already in prices. The 2,06-year yield jumped to 28%, to levels not seen since October 1,333. Asian investors are missing. The single currency also weakens: the euro-dollar cross falls to 6, the lowest since 2 October. The recovery of the dollar weighs on commodities: oil -95,90% to 1,2 dollars, gold -1.679% to 3,9 dollars, silver -31,5% to XNUMX dollars.
FORECAST. Abandon all hope you who enter, at least judging by the performance of futures in deep red. The most negative signal comes from Milan where the start promises to be very problematic. During the day, however, there will be no waves of sales from America, given that the markets across the Atlantic are closed for holidays: a small relief while waiting for the governments to be able to give birth to some remedy. “European leaders – notes The Economist – are certainly aware of the seriousness of the situation. But their efforts could be overtaken by events: it would certainly not be the first time”.
ASIA CHOOSES LONDON. British Gilts are better than Bunds. Better the pound than the euro. Japanese pension fund managers, from Mitsui to Mitsubishi Asset Management, have invested the equivalent of $20 billion in UK Treasuries. It was they, underlines a Bloomberg correspondence from Tokyo, who deserted the German auction, after having reduced the quota in Italian and French securities. The Tokyo Stock Exchange also closed lower this morning: Nikkei 225 -1,78%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is better - 0,16%. But the South China Morning Post notes that real estate market prices in China are experiencing a 30% drop in prices.
BANK SECURITIES DIVE IN PIAZZA AFFARI
MEDIOBANCA SACRIFICE MPS FOUNDATION
The Italian stock market was dragged down by bank stocks, in turn pushed down by new waves of pessimism about the fate of sovereign debt. Among the major declines those stand out Azimut -4,55%, B. Pop. Emilia Romagna -6,53%, Mediolanum -3,7%, Mediobanca marks the negative record -7,93% at 4,340 euros. The thud is linked to the sales of the MontePaschi Foundation which is liquidating (for now only in part) its stake in the bank in Piazzetta Cuccia. Banco Popolare -5,34%. retreats to a new historic low. Generali slips to 11,489 euros -3,32%.
APPOINTMENTS. IT'S MADE FOR SPOONS IN INTESA
MAIOLI GOES TOWARDS APPOINTMENT IN BPM
White smoke for Intesa Sanpaolo – 3,74. Today the president Giovann Bazoli will ask the supervisory board to appoint Enrico Tomaso Cucchiani, current president of Allianz Italia, as managing director of the bank to replace the new minister Corrado Passera. Today the same supervisory board will co-opt Guido Ghisolfi, the first of the non-elected, in place of Elsa Fornero, the new Minister of Welfare. The office of vice president will be assigned, as per the statute, only after the shareholders' meeting next April. The most accredited candidate is the economist Pietro Garibaldi.
Appointments in sight also in Bpm. In a few days, the managing director of Banca Popolare di Milano will be appointed, in line with what was requested by the Bank of Italy. Among the favorites is Giampiero Maioli (current general director Cariparma), already included in the shortlist of eligible candidates for Banca Intesa. Yet another historic low for Fondiaria-Sai -4,88%. Yesterday the executive committee of Fondiaria Sai would have identified ways to increase the solvency margin, these measures will be examined by the board of directors on November 29th. The company could proceed with the release of the goodwill, which would make it possible to increase the margin by about 6-7 points. Furthermore, the company could sell two properties, an operation which would allow a capital gain of less than 30 million euros (+1 basis point in terms of solvency margin). Since the beginning of the year, the share has fallen by 69%, which entails a capital loss of approximately 40 million for Unicredit, which entered the shareholding structure in support of the Ligresti group with 7%.
TOWARDS THE FINAL ACT AT FINMECCANICA
S&P PROMOTES THE OUTLOOK OF EXOR
Finmeccanica has lost 3,32% after the request of the Prime Minister, Mario Monti, of a “quick and responsible” solution. That is the resignation of the president Pier Francesco Guarguaglini. But, given the president's resistance, an authoritative solution is looming: the manager's dismissal by tomorrow. New drain for Fiat - 5,05% on the eve of the start of production of the Panda in Pomigliano this morning. On the contrary, the performance of the competitor Deere & Co. -0.93% was good for Fiat Industrial. +3,2% on Wall Street. The group that makes construction and agricultural equipment reported quarterly results above analysts' expectations. In the light of these data, even Fiat Industrial, whose sales in the agricultural segment represent around 45% of total revenues, can raise its targets for 2012. Meanwhile, S&P confirmed Exor's BBB+ and A2- ratings +0,25, XNUMX%, increasing the outlook from "stable" to "positive".
