The update to the third quarter of 2011 of the SACE Meteo Mercato index has been published. It is a synthetic index created to measure the risk level of the individual sectors of Italian industry. The index gives a representation of the probability of insolvency or exit from the market of companies operating in a given sector and is measured on a scale that goes from a minimum of 1 to a maximum of 9. Data such as production contribute to the calculation of the index industry, turnover, producer prices, business demographics and bank bad debts.
The aggregate index for the entire Italian industry marks an average level of 5 in the latest survey, up compared to the previous period, the second quarter of 2011, by 0,4 points. This decline is mainly linked to the decline of the Italian economy recorded in the third quarter (-0,2%). The sectors that are most affected by the economic slowdown are those that do not have a level of foreign demand such as to balance the stagnation of domestic demand. These results appear clear by looking at the graph, shown in the attachment, in which the spearheads of Italian exports, mechanical engineering and metallurgy, are classified as low-risk with index values slightly above 4. An excellent result is recorded also from the mining industry, with the stone sector which exported a total of 3 million tons for a value of more than 1 billion and 200 million euros during the first 9 months of the year. The computer and electronics industry has moved from a low to medium risk rating due to the decrease in production (-3,7%) and the difficulties caused by competition from foreign products which has decreased sales in the entire sector of technological consumer goods. Among the sectors most at risk, construction suffers from a reduction in investments and production also due to the contraction in demand for public works. The difficulties downstream of the production chain, ie in the furniture and construction industries, weigh on the wood sector.
This analysis clearly shows the importance of internationalization in terms of risk diversification. In fact, the less internationalized sectors suffer more from the state of difficulty of the Italian economy and are unable to exploit the potential offered by the growth of emerging markets.
Attachments: Weather_Market.pdf
