“We made a decision in June, since then some technical work has been done. The text cannot be touched, there is no reason to do so, there is already a political agreement“. These are the words of the president of the Eurogroup, the Portuguese economist Mario Centeno, who therefore closes the door to Italy on the hypothesis of a broad revision of the Mes, the bailout fund that is causing so much discussion these days and which is also putting at risk the stability of the Italian executive. The signing is postponed to January, while it was initially envisaged for December, but the room for maneuver is very limited.
The date by which the European finance ministers, in June, had established that the agreement should be reached it was next December 13th: at stake is not only the bailout fund to which Italy is hostile, but a package of reforms that included the bloc's budget and a single deposit guarantee mechanism. The structure therefore seems armored, while in the remaining days we will work only on the technicalities even if still in the morning the minister Luigi Di Maio had announced the battle: “On the Mes, we are very determined. For us it must be postponed: as it is it is not good, because it exposes Italy and the Italians to too high risks. This signature will commit us for the next 50 years. Until we have 200% certainty that Italy will be safe, I will not affix any signature".
The governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, also reported to Parliament on the issue, reassuring that "the reform marks a step in the right direction, above all because it introduces the backstop to the single resolution fund”, i.e. the instrument to support banks in difficulty. The real great progress towards the Banking Union, although not yet sufficient for Visco.
“The changes introduced – added the governor – are overall limited in scope. The reform does not envisage or announce a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism. As in the Treaty already in force today, there is no trade-off between financial assistance and debt restructuring. The verification of debt sustainability before the granting of aid is also already envisaged by the current Treaty. It is a clause to protect the resources of the Mes, of which Italy is the third main financier ".
As regards the request for aid from States in difficulty, Visco explained that the new Mes "branches the criterion of the ability to repay the loan by the requesting country", as a prerogative of the Mechanism itself to the already existing rules. “At the same time the reform clarifies that these preliminary checks are not automatic in any way: although based on 'transparent and foreseeable' criteria, they are conducted leaving a 'sufficient margin of discretion' to the authorities who carry them out”. For the governor, "the exclusion of any automatism in decisions regarding the sustainability of public debts and a possible mechanism for their restructuring" is an "important confirmation" because the introduction of a debt restructuring mechanism would incur a "risk enormous" that of "triggering a perverse spiral of insolvency expectations, susceptible to self-fulfillment".
In a passage of the speech, Visco has finally issued a call to politics: “I would like to underline that a country with a high public debt, especially if its economic weight in the area is high, must above all put in place the conditions to avoid having to resort” to the aid mechanism. “How, if any, his funds are accessed is not irrelevant but should not be the focal point of attention,” she lashed. “The main road is to reduce the ratio of debt to GDP by keeping the primary surplus at adequate levels, boosting economic growth, keeping confidence high and the average cost of debt low. The presence of the ESM facilitates this last task because it contains the risks of contagion, thus helping to maintain orderly conditions on the markets”.
After yesterday's Eurogroup, the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, however, said he was optimistic: "A closer agreement in Italy".
