Sales and sales up by about 50 thousand units, towards 470 thousand, but prices still falling about 3%. These are the 2015 forecasts of Nomisma for the Italian real estate market. In detail, the drop in prices, still lower than in previous years, is estimated at -2,9% for homes, -3,1% for offices and -2,6% for shops.
A more marked decline than the forecasts elaborated by Nomisma in November 2014 due, in particular, to deflation. For the Bolognese institute, 2016 will be the year of conclusion of the phase of decline in property prices, with substantial invariance compared to today, while in 2017 there will be the expected price reversal with a rise between 2,5% and 3% depending on the sectors.
“There are some signs of improvement from the point of view of the context of confidence and the number of transactions, but it is clear that we are still within a negative dynamics of prices. After all, this is a physiological factor because the recovery of the market always comes first from the point of view of quantities then, with a delay of 12-18 months depending on the context, from the point of view of prices", he declared Luca Dondi, general manager Nomisma adding that, in any case, what "will characterize the real estate market in the following years will be much more contained growth rates than in the past: double-digit growth is part of an era that is not destined to return at least in the short-medium period".
Nomisma, on the basis of data collected on a sample of 13 Italian intermediate cities, confirms the improvement for the residential market, with an increase however limited to transactions. The forecast for 2015 regards the continuation of the decline in prices, but at a less intense pace than in recent years. Even with respect to leases, the Bolognese institute estimates an improvement, both as regards the contracts concluded, and for the continuation of the trend towards stabilizing rents.
For 2015, the expected increase in settlement activity is approximately 50 housing units, for a total that should be in the order of 468 transactions (strengthening signs offered by the first three months of the year) . The Bolognese institute highlights the centrality of the capital municipalities (large and medium-sized), which condition the reversal of the cycle recorded in 2014.
For the 2016-2017 two-year period, Nomisma estimates an increase in sales which will lead to exceeding the 500.000 threshold, nothing to do with the data for the 2004/2007 period, when annual transactions amounted to over 800.000 units. For the Bolognese institute the perspective, after the ascent, is that of one stabilization of sales at lower levels than pre-crisis levels. It is no coincidence that Nomisma clearly indicates in the Report that "no overwhelming growth is at hand, nothing comparable to the overwhelming rise that characterized most of the last decade". Also for the credit sector, awareness of the excesses of the past and the failure to dispose of many "waste" therefore promises a situation of relative wait-and-see attitude. Even in the face of banking realities that have decidedly returned to expansive positions, for Nomisma it is clear that a highly uneven support framework limits the growth of the real estate sector.
The share of transactions supported by mortgages, in a context of an increase in the number of transactions in 2014 of +3,6%, grew by 12,7% (Revenue Agency data), confirming the importance of bank support in the trends industry positives. For 2015 Nomisma estimates one mortgage growth in the order of 30% (to which the subrogation and replacement component will still contribute), for a total of approximately 32 billion euro disbursed. Also for the current year, Nomisma estimates that the share of disinvestments by foreign operators will be much smaller than purchases, with a net balance that should be confirmed on the values of 2014, ie close to 2 billion euros.
