2013 ends well for the European real estate market: sentiment improves thanks to the first – weak – signs of recovery, even in Italy where values have collapsed in the last year, now resulting underpriced after years in which the boot was the place in Europe where it was more difficult to find undervalued assets.
This is certified by the study of the asset management company Aberdeen, listed on the London Stock Exchange: Italian real estate took longer than the others to adapt to the recessionary climate, and from the third most expensive in Europe in the pre-crisis period (behind Spain and the UK) it became the first in the worst years, before collapsing all d 'a bang in the last year, returning attractive to investors.
Now Italy, according to British analysts, it is the second country where it is easier to find undervalued assets: the first is Spain, which began its underpricing process much earlier (already between 2007 and 2008) and is now more interesting, also due to the fact that it presents a less uncertain political and regulatory context.
“We are making a comeback in international consideration – he explains Paola Albano, Senior Asset Manager for Italy – but Spain is in better shape than us because it inspires more confidence, has a stable political situation and even the regulatory scenarios seem more oriented towards change. Italy is still not completely convincing, it is coming out of the recession with more difficulty and worries about the fiscal aspect”.
Just the day after the EU Commission announced that half of European corruption takes place on this side of the Alps, it could not have been otherwise. However, the dynamics of the Italian real estate market and in southern Europe in general are leading to a rapprochement between the market value and the fundamental value, creating a particularly favorable investment environment: today high quality properties are made available at affordable prices.
Aberdeen then made a focus on the retail market, a sector that has always been little considered by professional investors (and underrepresented in portfolios): "The advent of large shopping centers - he explains John Danes, Director of the Property Researchh – has and is changing the global retail scenario year after year, making the sector one of the most dynamic. It is precisely this 'novelty' factor, still ignored by many, that represents an important opportunity for institutional investors, such as pension funds, who are looking for a good long-term performance”.
Furthermore, according to Aberdeen, the diversification of the portfolio resulting from the inclusion of properties for commercial use can lead to a reduction in the overall risk and to a stabilization of the yield following the level of constant flows of fees paid. On the one hand, large-scale retail in Italy represents a good opportunity since prices are at low levels, on the other it is also true that the offer remains limited, if you look at it in comparison to other European countries.
Indeed, according to a study carried out in 2012, Italy lags behind in the number of shopping malls per capita: only Friuli Venezia Giulia reaches the levels of some areas of Northern Europe (in particular Scotland and Sweden). Not to mention that online commerce is growing in Italy, but still embryonic compared to other countries: the EU average of online purchases is 50%, Italy is last with just over 20%, Germany first with more than '80%. Finland is also doing better than us, although it boasts the worst percentage of domestic broadband connection with 44%: Italy does more than 50%, the EU average is 70 and counting. Relative opportunity therefore, because if it is true that the first-mover and global giant Amazon has a strong impact in Europe, in Italy the upside margins are still many and there is room for other competitors.
