It is a supply-demand dynamics still very effervescent that which is characterizing the labor market in Veneto. Despite the global macroeconomic uncertainties, the Veneto industry and tertiary sector continue to record excellent data. According to the statistics of Veneto Lavoro, the first quarter of the year produced a positive balance of 29.300 employees, the best figure since 2019. From a qualitative point of view, the quarterly employment balance it consists of 16.000 new permanent job positions, +13.300 fixed-term contracts and an almost unchanged balance relating to apprenticeships.
Mismatching between supply and demand for growing jobs
However, there is still a labor market that does not yet express all of its potential, given that the mismatch between labor supply and demand is widening with an unstoppable progression. A situation which, according to some entrepreneurs, could push, not immediately but in the medium-long term, companies to a new season of investments to further automate production cycles and weaken, at least where possible, the shortcomings on the market of Work. “As we know, the situation is very dynamic and uncertain therefore one must always be cautious in medium-long term assessments, also when analyzing data which are often outdated at the very moment in which they are disclosed. Having said that, there is now a shortage of workers in almost all functions, even the less specialized ones, also due to the fact that there has been a great post-Covid rebound which has led to the multiplication of sales volumes and, consequently, to an important demand for manpower», he comments Laura Dalla Vecchia, President of Confindustria Vicenza.
Vicenza industrialists critical of the "flow decree"
Still on the employment front, the position of Vicenza's industrialists is great criticism of the "flow decree", defined as a click day that no longer has a reason to exist. According to Confindustria Vicenza, the applications that triple or quadruple the available positions are not even remotely indicative of the real need, because many employers have escaped the lottery logic of the click day.
«We hope that the positive trend will continue – continues Laura Dalla Vecchia – but we know that it cannot always be at the levels experienced in 2021 and 2022, just look at the 2023 GDP forecasts. Therefore, over time, for some positions, the gap could spontaneously reduce. On the other hand, the investment in automation must surely grow, perhaps also enhancing the budget of the Government's 4.0 plan. But this, the companies do it regardless of and in response to the requests that arrive from the market. A company invests in production and automation to tackle the international market, to produce more, because it is growing and needs to increase its volumes: not because it can't find staff, much less to replace people with machines. This is a false myth that must be debunked immediately because history, but also current events, inevitably show us that this is not the case, indeed, exactly the opposite occurs. When investing in automation, the company does so to grow and therefore to increase the number of employees. The reality is, therefore, that investment is synonymous with job creation".
Assumptions: agriculture is growing, industry is decreasing, tourism and trade are doing well
On the sectoral front, i numbers of Veneto Lavoro show in the first quarter a positive return for theagriculture, which after several quarters of decline recorded a increase in hiring (+3%, +4.500 new jobs). There overall growth remains supported by services, where recruitments grow by +10% compared to the same period last year (+16.300 jobs). I'm the driving force business e , which represent 27% of the total recruitment flows and register a change of +15% on 2022. Theindustry pays the comparison with a period of 2022 in which the recovery was expressed at the highest levels in the secondary sector and shows a drop of -5%, despite a balance that remains positive in all sectors, for a total balance of +8.400 jobs .
The demographic decline weighs on the future of the Veneto economy
In perspective, beyond the economic cycles, the future of the Veneto economy looms large population decline variable. If once upon a time the regional market was mainly looking for technical and professional profiles, they have been getting noticed for some time widespread difficulties in finding manpower also devoid of particular qualifications, precisely due to the effect of the demographic sickle. Bassano del Grappa, the geographic center of the furniture district and headquarters of important and strategic engineering companies, provides one of the many examples of how demography will challenge the future of the Veneto economic system. In 2020, a quarter of Bassanesi had already turned 65, almost 10% over 80 years old. Out of 100 young people under the age of 15, almost 200 elderly people over 65 "weigh". Percentages that will increase further in the next ten years, when the numerous generations of baby boomers will pass the threshold of 65 years.
