MOODY'S COOLS THE DRAGONS EFFECT. HOT EVE FOR PIRELLI AND MEDIOBANCA
The purchase of government bonds with a maturity of up to three years "does not constitute a monetary loan to the states". Therefore, if and when necessary, the ECB will be able to resort to them without breaking its mandate. These words of Mario Draghi, filtered by the hearing behind closed doors in the European Parliament, ignited yesterday a sudden final rise in the stock markets, which brilliantly closed a session that had been positive up to that moment, but also very boring. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 1,1%, London gained 0,8%, Paris +1,2%, Frankfurt +0,6%.
The indication that the ECB is increasingly on the verge of taking steps to control spreads also had immediate beneficial effects on government bonds: the 5,74-year BTP closed with a yield of 437% with a spread of 12, down by XNUMX basis points.
Moody's revised the outlook for the European Union downwards from 'stable' to 'negative'. The downward revision of the outlook “reflects the negative outlooks assigned to the Aaa-rated countries which are the largest contributors to the European Union budget: Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, which together account for about 45% of budget revenues European". The European Union's rating is instead confirmed at 'Aaa', with Moody's believing that it will evolve in line with that of the key states.
The European news closes with two disturbing pieces of news: a) Greek premier Antonis Samaras has postponed until Wednesday the meeting between government partners to approve the 11,5 billion austerity package requested by Brussels in exchange for the green light to new tranche of aid worth 31 billion. Divergences remain within the executive on the measures to be implemented while the EU, the ECB and the IMF want answers quickly; b) theAndalusia has requested a liquidity advance pending the definition of the conditions for access to funds from the Spanish state. The request comes after those already made by Catalonia, Valencia and Murcia.
Wall Street shut down for the holidays, so it was Europe that held sway on the markets. In Asia, the lists recorded a (limited) drop after Moody's decision: Tokyo is starting to close with a decrease of 0,13%, Hong Kong marks -0,32%. Futures on Wall Street rose slightly (S&P +0,4%): the key data of today's session concerns the trend of manufacturing activity.
Operators, meanwhile, are wondering about China's next steps. Despite declining inflation and the bad news coming from the manufacturing industry, the recovery measures on which the markets are betting are having a hard time arriving. According to the New York Times, nothing will move before Sunday when the employment data is released. Only a sharp drop in employment, explains the US daily, could convince Beijing to take drastic moves. Otherwise, caution is bound to prevail: there is too much fear of triggering a new real estate bomb. Intano Goldman Sachs has brutally cut its profit estimates for the next Chinese quarterly: average profitability will drop from 6 to 1,8%.
In Milan, yesterday's increases spread to all sectors, starting with the banks: Unicredit rose by 1,6%, MontePaschi + 0,9% Pop.Milano + 1,9% Banco Popolare + 2,5% Understanding +0,8%. The rise of Campari , jumped 7,9%: The company announced the purchase of Jamaican rum producer Lascelles DeMercado for $415 million. The opinions of Cheuvreux and Mediobanca were positive.
In the luxury sector, strong growth of Tod’s, up 6,9% to 90,5 euros. HSBC raised the target price to 90 euros from 81 euros and confirmed the recommendation neutral. Ferragamo gained 2,4%: HSBC confirmed the positive opinion Overweight and raised the target price to 21 euro from 18 euro. Luxottica it rose by 1,9%. Positive Lottomatica +1,4% and Mediaset + 2,2%.
Warm archipelago eve Mediobanca +1,2% on the eve of the extraordinary board meeting convened after Alberto Nagel's entry in the register of suspects in relation to the papello signed with Salvatore Ligresti. In the spotlight is the possible evolution of Piazzetta Cuccia's strategies.
In particular, the race of Rcs +19% driving other editorials: Mondadori + 20% l'Espresso +10%. In mid-October, the publishing house in via Solferino will have to launch the necessary operations to reconstitute the capital reduced by the devaluation of the Spanish assets.
Still great excitement around Camfin +7,1% (+35% in one week) on the wave of speculative purchases by those betting on an incurable conflict between Tronchetti Provera and Malacalza. Pirelli marked an increase of 0,7%. The direct confrontation between the duelists is scheduled for tomorrow, at the council.
Almost unchanged Fiat -0,03% despite the appalling data on the Italian car market. In August, 56 vehicles were registered (-20%), as many as in the summer of 1962. Fiat's share remained unchanged at approximately 29%. Sergio Marchionne ("never seen such numbers") consoles himself with the USA and Brazil who are "doing great". Eni it lost 0,5%, down after rumors according to which Cassa Depositi e Prestiti had started operations to sell a 3,4% stake. Saipem rose by 1,5%, Tenaris + 1,7%. StM fell 0,7%, downgraded from Nomura to neutral da buy, the target was lowered to 5 euros from 10,4 euros.
