STOCK MARKETS STILL WAITING FOR THE GERMAN VOTE
BERNABE': ALL TELECOM WILL BE CALLED TIM
At the end of the week of twists and turns, the stock exchanges mark time. The expectation for the German vote on Sunday prevails.
In Tokyo, the index recorded a modest decline, around 0,22%, despite the promise of the president of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, to continue with the easing until prices are stable. Since the beginning of January, the Japanese stock market has risen by 41%. Even more important is the signal coming from the real estate market: for the first time in five years the price of land is on the rise in the first three cities of the country.
After the post-Fed euphoria, the open emerging markets corrected: Thailand -0,2%, Indonesia -0,9%.
Most of the Asian stock exchanges are closed this morning for holidays: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea.
Wall Street after the days of record highs has chosen caution, focusing attention on next Sunday's German elections. The Dow Jones index fell 0,26%, the S&P 500 index fell 0,22% and the Nasdaq rose 0,15%. The yield on 3,69-year T-bonds settled at 3,01% (against Tuesday's high of XNUMX%).
The price of oil is falling after the soothing tone adopted by the Iranian president, Hassan Rohani. At Nymex, Light crude fell 1,68 dollars to 106,39. Brent is trading at 108,70 this morning.
Gold stable at 1.363 dollars an ounce after yesterday's 4% jump.
BERLIN THE UNKNOWLEDGE OF EUROSCEPTICS
Forecasts for Europe too, as far as today's session is concerned, are oriented towards prudence.
The spotlights are on the eve of the German elections; taking for granted the affirmation of Chancellor Angela Merkel, the crux of alliances remains open. The liberals, now in government together with the Cdu-Csu, risk not exceeding the quorum of 5% (but the support of the Cdu is on the way). In that case, the Grosse Coalition with the Social Democrats would be inevitable. The Eurosceptics' enigma is even hotter: if they exceed the 5% threshold, they will be able to effectively hinder EU politics, thanks to the weapon of appealing to the Constitutional Court.
BUSINESS CENTER AT 18 THOUSAND (40.000 IN 2007)
The euro closed above $1,35 and at its three-and-a-half-year high against the yen. The European currency changed hands at 1,3536 dollars, after updating the 5-month high on the greenback at 1.3568 dollars.
The EU stock exchanges, driven by the decisions of the Fed, closed the day at a 5-year high. The pan-European FTSE 300 index has returned to pre-crisis levels.
The London Stock Exchange gained 1%, Paris +0,8%, Frankfurt +0,6%.
Volkswagen ended up down by 2,1%: according to the revelations of the monthly Manager Magazin, it risks not reaching the profit targets of 2015.
Strong decrease in Paris of Axa -2,3%.
The FtseMib index ended the session above 18.000 points for the first time since August 2011. In detail, the index settled at 18.059 with an increase of 1,4%. But, unlike what is valid for the Dax of Frankfurt or the American S&P 500, the Italian list is light years away from the levels of 2007 (over 40 points).
On the government bond market, the BTP continued to improve with the ten-year yield down to 4,28%. The spread is at 236, down 3 basis points.
GOLDMAN PROMOTES ITALIAN BANKS
Great day for financials.
The rise was driven by the banks, supported by a report by Goldman Sachs which signals the improvement in the capital structure of Italian credit institutions and concludes by raising the target price of Intesa +3,6% and Unicredit +2,6%: this last is indicated as the most attractive bank (best pick) in Italy.
Significant earnings also for Banco Popolare +1,8% and Pop.Milano +2,2%.
MontePaschi closed down by 0,1%: according to the chairman Alessandro Profumola, the window for the 2,5 billion capital increase could be more than 12 months, extending the maximum term indicated by the European Commission.
Strong progress of asset management companies: Azimut +3,5%, Mediolanum +4,8%.
The insurance companies moved little: Fondiaria-Sai advanced by 0,3% - Generali unchanged. Morgan Stanley raised the target price of the stock to 13,5 euros from 13 euros but the level remains below the current prices and the recommendation was confirmed to underweight.
Strong decrease in Paris of Axa -2,3%.
TLC, CAPITAL INCREASE STILL UNCERTAIN
Telecom Italia – 0,25%. An informal meeting of the company board was held yesterday: “it was a lunch with friends. We need a little patience”, said director Tarak Ben Ammar. In reality, during lunch the president Franco Bernabé illustrated an ambitious project: to transform Telecom into a holding company under which the current divisions will be transformed into as many joint stock companies. The holding should change its name: from Telecom to Tim, the best-known operating brand, following the path already taken by France Telecom, renamed Orange. No news, however, on the fate of Telco or on the capital increase that could be dealt with in the October 3 board meeting.
Meanwhile, the company has launched the placement of a 7-year bond with a maximum value of one billion euros. The issue closed successfully: the yield is equal to 5,054%.
Bad day for Mediaset-1,3%, downgraded by Barclays which cut the recommendation from equalweight to underweight and the target price from 3,3 euros to 3,15 euros. Espresso also fell -3,2%.
Among the industrial stocks, the best is Prysmian +2,3%, StM rose by 1,1%, Pirelli +1,9%. Backtracking by Fiat -0,4%.
Among the utilities, good increases for Enel +2% and A2A +1,3%.
Among the mid and small caps, the spotlight is on Tamburi which gained 3,1%.
Amplifon – 1,66%. At a presentation in Paris yesterday, the company's CFO warned that the regulatory overhaul in the Netherlands will drop the group's EBITDA by €15m, closer to €130m than the current consensus estimate of €139m. Kepler Cheuvreux confirms the reduced rating on the title, which is down sharply on the stock market
