The wait will end tonight when Fed Chair Janet Yellen unveils the central bank's rate decisions. Meanwhile, caution prevailed on Wall Street: the Dow Jones index fell by 0,71%, the S&P 500 by 0,33%, only the Nasdaq closed at +0,16%. The response from Asian stock markets was more articulated: Tokyo was weak (-0,1%), Hong Kong and Shanghai rose, their highest since 2008. The rise in Seoul also continued. The dollar is stable just above 1,06 against the euro.
Europe also took a breather after the Qe-triggered rally. In Milan, the FtseMib index fell yesterday by 0,9% to 22.723 points. Frankfurt also falls from the maximum (-1,5%). The Paris Stock Exchange lost 0,7%,
FED LESS PATIENT, BUT STILL DOVE
The forecasts are almost unanimous: in tonight's final statement, the Fed will cancel the call for "patience" necessary before raising rates, but will explain that this does not imply an automatic increase, the first for six years: more data on the economic situation will be needed first because increasing employment alone is not enough.
The forecast is easy, but it is difficult to interpret what the market reaction might be. Christine Lagarde, director general of the IMF, has warned against the possibility that the first hike in interest rates in the United States of 2006 will be accompanied by an explosion of volatility.
More dramatic Ray Delio, legendary manager of the Bridgewater fund. There is a risk, he said, of repeating the mistakes of 1937, when the decision to raise rates plunged the economy recovering from the crisis of 29 back into crisis:
THE BTP 15 PLACED AT 1,65%. GREECE, STRESS IS GROWING
The new 15-year BTP in March 2032 was placed with a coupon set at 1,65%, more than halved compared to the 3,50% of the BTP in March 2030. The amount decided by the Treasury was eight billion, against a request for over 16 billion .
In the meantime, Qe is producing good results: inflation in the Eurozone stood at -0,3% in February, in line with the consensus and the preliminary figure. The ECB's target of +2% on inflation is still a long way off, but according to analysts, the first effects of the purchases are beginning to be seen. "It's a good sign - explains the chief economist of Nomisma, Sergio De Nardis - Now we need to keep the bar straight and resist the pressure that will come from Berlin to withdraw the purchase program in case inflation rears its head".
In this context, however, the agony of Greece continues: the German minister Wolfgang Schaueble yesterday underlined how no foreign investor participated in the T-bill auction in Athens, given the uncertainty that reigns over Tsipras' choices. In the meantime, the 3-year bond has jumped over 20%.
BENEFICIAL TAKES ON THE POPULAR
While awaiting developments on the money markets, the banking sector is faltering under the pressure of profit-taking. Among the blue chips, the declines of cooperative banks stand out, which have been very strong in recent weeks. Banca Popolare Milano, which is still one of the best stocks on Piazza Affari (+76% since the beginning of the year), fell by 3,2%. Popolare Emilia -3,7%, Ubi -2,6%.
The other banks are also down: MontePaschi loses 1,1%. Understanding -1,2% and Unicredit -1,2%. In the managed sector, Azimut -2,3% halves the previous day's earnings. Weak Generali (-1,4%). Among the insurance companies, Cattolica closed at +0,27% at 7,43 euro. Mediobanca Securities raised the target price on the stock from 8 to 9 euro to reflect an 11% growth in net income from 2015 to 2016 (outperform rating unchanged).
BOUNCE ENI. BOFA: TOO OVERDISCOVERED ON THE OIL SECTOR
Stocks in the oil & service sector (+0,8%) went against the trend, the best in Europe despite the weakness of oil. Yesterday morning Bank of America Merrill Lynch signaled that there is an anomalous and unjustified excess of positions on companies in the sector pointing to the downside.
Eni recovered 0,46% to 15,31 euros. Banca Imi which raised the target price on the stock from 14,9 to 15,4 euro, confirming the hold recommendation. The gaffe, soon self-denial, by Deputy Minister Claudio De Vincenti who had declared that "we will do what we have already done for Enel also for Eni" did not matter. In reality, a placement of the six-legged dog is not in sight, which cannot be proposed a few days after the cut of the dividend. Saipem (+0,12%) and Tenaris also performed well, unchanged.
TELECOM TOWARDS PROFIT AFTER THREE YEARS
Telecom Italia halved its losses in the final and closed down by 0,6% reaching 1,1340 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained 27%. Tomorrow the board of directors will approve the accounts at the end of 2014 which closed, according to rumors, with a profit of 100 million euros: the first positive result after three years in the red. As already communicated, the dividend will be distributed only to savings securities.
Meanwhile, the engines are warming up awaiting the arrival of shareholder Vivendi. A Natixis report on the group led by Vincent Bolloré underlines that the Italian market is a "strategic priority" for the French group.
Mediaset sales +0,24%.
ON THE SEVENTH DAY THE FCA RACE STOPPED
After six consecutive increases, Fiat Chrysler slows down (-2,1%), slipping to 15,47 euros on profit taking. The title has gained 103% in the last year and 65% since the beginning of 2015. Analysts have been "displaced" by the rally. Out of 30 experts surveyed by Bloomberg, 13 still suggest buying, but the average target price is set at 13,50 euros, a price that has now been largely surpassed by events.
Exor also stops -1,7%. The Chinese Fosun International has expressed interest in the purchase of Cushman & Wakefield, the subsidiary of the financial company of the Agnelli group which would have appointed Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to find a buyer for the group. The value of the operation is estimated at 2 billion dollars.
Among the other industrial stocks, Finmeccanica marks a drop of 2,6%. Today the group will publish its 2014 results. Tomorrow it's Enel's turn (-0,3%). Prysmian lost 2,58% to 18,09 euros despite Exane raising the target price on the stock from 15,5 to 18 euros.
BALZO DELLA LAZIO, ROMA SHAKES. INTERPUMP GOES SHOPPING
There were, however, other upward themes: Gtech (+2,3%) was the best blue chip yesterday. Campari follows (+0,46%). Among the mid caps, Interpump closed at +1,09%. The company acquired 52,72% of Inoxihp, an Italian company operating in the sector of high and very high pressure water systems, at a price of 8,6 million euro.
Out of the main Ascopiave basket (+3,58%) thanks to the generous coupon: the company closed 2014 with a consolidated net profit of 37,3 million. The BoD approved a dividend of 0,15 euro per share, for a total of 35,162 million euro.
Great leap for Lazio (+9,3%) after the victory against Turin Rome threatens just one point away (-2,44%) in the race for direct qualification to the Champions League.
Lastly, luxury stocks were down: Ferragamo -1,5%, Moncler -2,3%, Tod's -3,6%.
